My crazy theory about cigarettes

For the most part I’m an advocate for the free market. In light of the recent news out of the UK that they will begin the process of banning cigarettes from the country I thought I would introduce a crazy theory of mine.

Pretty much everyone hates cigarettes. It’s an easy thing to “hate”. That’s why I think my little cigarette theory is worth sharing, because I’m sure no one else would dare say what I’m going to say.

The ban in the UK phases in a smoking ban. What it means is that anyone born on or after 1 January 2009 will never legally be able to purchase a cigarette in the UK.

I will occasionally have a cigar or yes even a cigarette. Not often, maybe four to six a year. I agree, they are bad for you. Yet, I find it ironic that countries are moving to ban cigarette smoking at the same time they are legalizing weed smoking. A strange irony.

There is the additional irony that nationwide UK icon & legend of history Winston Churchill was a chimney, or the problematic fact that this will create a black market for cigarettes in the UK.

Of course, smoking is bad for you and no one likes to inhale second hand smoke. I recall sucking in cigarette smoke while trying to enjoy a meal at a restaurant was a regular thing until not all that long ago. It was extremely unpleasant.

Smoking used to be very popular. Something like ? of all adults smoked up until the 80’s. Then people accepted the fact that it was a deadly habit and smoking prevalence dropped off a cliff. Of course, just because people quit smoking doesn’t mean they were suddenly health nuts. People always have guilty pleasures, vices, and indulgencies. I suspect that the prevalence of “bad habits” (vices) doesn’t actually vary much with time. It’s probably human nature; remove one vice and it will be replaced with another.

This is where my crazy cigarette theory comes in. In 1970 about 50% of adults smoked and 14.5% were considered obese. By 2020 just 11.5% of adults smoked but 43% of adults are considered obese. This seems interesting to me. I know, correlation does not imply causation, however I'm struck by how well the decrease in smoking prevalence correlates with the increase in obesity. I can’t help but wonder if American’s simply replaced smoking with eating. Maybe instead of having a cigarette break American’s began having a snack break?

One of the reasons people smoked was to deal with stress apparently. I can’t imagine that American’s are any less stressed today than in the 60’s and 70’s. I suspect that a lot of the stress coping behaviors switched from smoking to eating and drinking (and drugs). Not only has obesity gone up an alarming amount since the 80’s but so has alcohol and drug abuse. The increases in other unhealthy vice behaviors track pretty well with the decrease in smoking as well.

My crazy theory is that American’s have replaced one vice (smoking) with others (overeating, alcohol abuse, and drug abuse) that are no more healthy and that are no less deadly, and that banning cigarettes is at best akin to arranging deck chairs on the Titanic. I have to wonder if there was really any net gain in lives saved? Part of me wonders if there was a net loss as people turned to other deadly vices?

Could it be that one unhealthy behavior (smoking) was simply replaced by another (overeating)? Perhaps part of it was simply a change in habit (exchanging one habit for another), or perhaps part of it was an unintended consequence. Nicotine is a known appetite supressent, and in fact for awhile cigarettes were marketed that way. What's the effect of 50% of the population being on an appetite supressent and then taking them off? Could that explain, at least in part, the rise in obesity?

There is controversy about the relationship between smoking and weight. Some studies suggest that smokers, including long-term and current smokers, tend to have lower body weights compared to nonsmokers and experience less weight gain over time. Of course, there are other studies that suggest otherwise. So who knows?

This might cause you to wonder then whether it's worse to be a smoker or be obese? I'm not terribly interested in the answer to that question because the answer is farily obvious. It's fairly deadly to be either one. I think the most interesting thing to consider is that this variable, the decline in smoking, might at least partially explain the rise in obesity. The mechanism for that might be 1) American's simply replaced smoking with snacking or 2) Far fewer American's are taking an appetite suppressant on a daily basis. In a nation that's trying to find explanations for why things are going wrong it seems like it might be a good idea to take this into consideration.

I’m not advocating for cigarettes, but I am advocating for a realistic view of human behavior. I could say more but this is a good place to stop. I don’t want to get too controversial. Food for thought. Maybe someone will dig into this at some point, but I doubt it.