My Congratulations and Concerns on the Success of Chang'e-4

***The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of the Air Force, the Department of Defense, or the U.S. Government.***

I recently had the unusual experience of having a post of mine go somewhat “Viral” on LinkedIn (read over 15,000 times as of this writing). The subject of the post was my mixed feelings regarding China having landed a probe, Chang’e-4, on the far-side of the moon. This was the first such landing of a probe on the far-side of the moon in history and a lot of praise is deserved by China as a nation to not only have created a space program as accomplished as it is in such a short amount of time, but for continuing to push the boundaries of science and technology today. They are certainly setting a high bar for the rest of the world.

But my admiration for their accomplishments is complicated in my mind by what this means for the legal and political world of space. While I am all smiles about what was accomplished, I am apprehensive about what that accomplishment could mean.

On October 4, 1957, the Soviet Union shocked the world by placing into orbit the world’s first artificial satellite. I am glad to say that I can look back at that accomplishment with joy as there is universal agreement that without the Sputnik achievement, NASA, the Apollo program, and all the other “small steps for mankind” would not have happened. Even beyond this it is likely that the technologies that the world runs on today would not have become possible (can any of us even remember what life was like before your cell phones?). And yet at the time that Sputnik was launched, elation was the furthest thing from the minds of most people here in the US.

American leaders had been caught with their thumbs in their mouths on the national stage. As is well known, the world had been engulfed in a Cold War that used political prestige as a replacement for bombs. Two sides of the debate wielded bragging rights, particularly technological bragging rights, as a means of muscle in international relations. Almost immediately there was a national scramble to catch up, a scramble that took several years to start making headway in.

The good news is, that with time we as a nation actually did catch up in a technological and prestige sense. It took a tremendous amount of political willpower, funds, and a bit of unprecedented bureaucracy-bending to make it happen, but we did it.

Since that time however, we lost all those key elements needed to keep the ball moving forward. To be sure, the private sector has stepped into the foray and has begun making amazing strides forward. But the private sector is not designed to push major political policy. It is designed to do one thing, make a profit (and thank goodness for it). What this means is that space has become all too open for another political assault.

Let me be clear, I am not suggesting that another Cold War with Russia, China, or anyone else is what is needed. I am not even convinced that it is the preferred pathway towards the innovation that will make space the kind of resource that it eventually could be. But I am saying that space continues to be a place where political ideology and values will either be represented or not depending on who is present. I am a firm believer in American values and I sincerely hope that they will be represented in space now and in the future.

Today, China took another step forward on their long-planned journey towards a permanent presence and dominance in space. This journey that they have plotted has from the beginning shown their nation’s interest in political, military, and resource dominance in outer space, especially on our closest celestial neighbor, the moon. Standing in front of China’s ability to realize its end goals are items of international law such as the 1967 UN treaty, the “Treaty on Principles Governing the Activities of States in the Exploration and Use of Outer Space, including the Moon and Other Celestial Bodies,” or Outer Space Treaty. In this well-recognized and adhered to piece of international law, national appropriation of celestial bodies, including the moon, is prohibited. So does this mean that China is stopped from staking ownership or claim to parts of the Moon or its resources? Well not exactly.

Since its economic revival, China has been more and more willing to stretch the law to meet its purposes. This stretch has been described as China having a different view of the law than most western countries. What is meant by this is that most modern countries view the law as guideposts to prevent straying outside of acceptable ethical activities. To contrast this, China has viewed the law as more of a tool to use to enable state-ends.

A well-known example of this has been the controversy over the South China Sea. International maritime law has well established the fact that open seas are open territory for nations to use freely. China, does not see it this way. But rather than openly attack nations attempting to utilize the South China Sea, instead China has stretched its definitions of the law by claiming sovereign control of the area, creating islands, or even just exerting economic and social pressures on states to recognize its claim.

Similar pressures have been used to claim continued ownership of Taiwan. One such fascinating example has been China’s use of propaganda maps and periodicals that show Taiwan as being a part of mainland China, or the demand that public and private entities only use maps that show the same. With the growth rate of China, it makes sense for many of these nations to acquiesce to these small seeming demands. But China then has relied on these series of small acquiesces as historical proof of their claims to territory in international debates!

So what does all of this have to do with the Moon or with Chang’e-4 and why would it make me apprehensive despite its importance in the fields of science and technology? Well, nothing in the short term. But with China pushing towards a permanent and sophisticated presence in space and the Moon, the parallels to their treatment of global territories become concerning. China has declared a desire to set up a permanent presence in space. Even if they do so under the auspices of being in compliance with the Outer Space Treaty’s denial of appropriation, one wonders how long such a presence would need to be before an international community began to feel pressure to admit that “yes well they were there first” and begin to turn a blind eye to a stretching of international law or the denial of other nation’s access to portions of the Moon?

And why does that matter? It is a big moon after all. Well, the moon itself may be vast but there are concentrated pockets of resources (water and other materials) that are extremely valuable and may dictate the future of an entirely new space economy! Not just the future of space travel, but the future of economic opportunity may very well depend on who has control over these natural resources on the moon and other celestial bodies.

One would hope that neither China nor the US is willing to resort to conventional military strikes or destruction to claim such territory. But China has shown a particular patience and cunning in the using of the law and social sentiment to obtain its means in the past and it has shown itself all too willing to use “lawfare” to do so in the present case as well. If we as a country are not willing to step up to the plate and see the potential for our future with the same sort of forward-mindedness that the Chinese seem to be demonstrating then we risk losing out on that potential entirely.

And that, has me a little concerned.

***The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of the Air Force, the Department of Defense, or the U.S. Government.***