My Climate Crisis in the Small Hours

Anyone wondering why we at Element 2 are accelerating the shift from diesel to hydrogen should read Peter Frankopan ’s new book, The Earth Transformed.?

With my family's interest in all things Chinese, I’ve always enjoyed Frankopan’s work on the history of the Silk Road and its impact on the spread of ideas and technologies between Europe, Central Asia and China.?

I’m not sure I’m enjoying his new book as much. The numbers and consequences are well known, for example, the doubling of CO2 concentrations from 200ppm which persisted for the three million years between the Pliocene and Anthropocene to 420ppm in a period of a couple of centuries, or the potentially catastrophic effects of inevitable rises in sea levels and the potential failure of the North Atlantic Oscillation. If anyone is looking for ideas for a dystopian climate change novel, the liberation of trapped methane, ancient pathogens and nuclear waste from melting permafrost and glaciers is the stuff of nightmares.

But what scares the crap out of me is the sheer complexity of climate systems, from the well-known such as El Ni?o to the weather in the North Atlantic influencing the Indian Monsoon and volcanic eruptions creating both warming and cooling. This means that there is no easy fix. Direct CO2?capture from the atmosphere will only make a small dent. Other geoengineering ideas such as stratospheric sulphur dioxide aerosols to mimic the impact of volcanic eruptions and reduce short wavelength insolation may have unintended consequences. And of course, enabling one country to alter its climate for the better at the expense of many others has the potential to add to geopolitical instability.

I am still a climate optimist, based mainly on our ability to survive as a species for forty thousand years against an onslaught of pathogens (insignificant geologically but not to me) and in a variety of climates and to find solutions to limited climate problems as evidenced by the partial success of the Montreal Protocol banning chlorofluorocarbons. At least some international agreement was reached, although mysterious rogue emissions still continue. But we do have to take action now to put the brakes on global emissions, and this isn’t something that can wait until 2050 or whatever net zero targets today's politicians have signed their children up to in the secure knowledge that they won't be around to be held responsible.?

My job as CEO of Element 2 is simple - get as many diesel trucks off the roads as quickly as possible by building the infrastructure to make it happen. The complexity is that it involves a coalition of vehicle OEMs, fleet operators, hydrogen producers and forecourt operators to make it happen while ensuring that the result is economically viable and financially attractive to investors. But it is possible, and we are doing it, and doing it well.?It doesn't solve the entire climate change problem, but it does make a start in cutting both greenhouse gas emissions and particulate pollution.

But the thing that keeps me awake at night is the worry that we just aren’t doing it fast enough.?