My analysis of the 2020 U.S. presidential elections, "2020: The Demographics of an Unusual Presidential Election"
I have copied and pasted below the titles, content, maps and pictures from my power points on the U.S. presidential elections of 2020 for my class Introduction to American Politics from last semester. I hope that the materials are easily readable and not distorted by technical problems. If there is a demand for it, I will post similar contents from other power points on other elections. Needless to say, the copyright belongs to me, Ionas Aurelian Rus. If you will copy and paste this content, please give me the credit.
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Ionas Aurelian Rus
Dr. Ionas Aurelian Rus, UCBA, Introduction to American Politics, 2020: The Demographics of an Unusual Presidential Election
Donald Trump, Republican (232 electoral votes & 74,216,154 votes or 46.86%, red) vs. Joseph Biden, Democrat (306 electoral votes & 81,268,924 votes or 51.31%, blue) for the presidency in 2020
Donald Trump, Republican (304 electoral votes & 62,984,825 votes, or 46.1%) vs. Hillary Clinton, Democrat (227 electoral votes & 65,853,516 votes, or 48.2%) for the presidency in 2016
The Elections of 2020
The elections were won by the Democrats at the presidential level with an expected Joe Biden victory. The Democratic candidate, not surprisingly, won the popular vote. The Republicans surprisingly lost control of the Senate (with three fewer seats), and the Democrats also kept the House of Representatives (with 13 fewer seats). The Republicans won a net of one governorship (Montana), two legislative houses in New Hampshire, and a few state legislative seats. Biden, an old style liberal, performed better than other Democratic candidates (0.5% more than the House of Representatives Democrats), and Trump, a conservative populist and eccentric, performed less well than other Republican candidates (0.8% less than the House Republicans).
2016, Politics and Policy
Donald Trump, the Republican candidate, had better than average “politicking” skills, though gaps in knowledge of policy and a worse temperament than in 2016. He still had the best polling data, just as in 2016, but didn’t listen to the 2020 pollsters, and “appealed to the center” less. By contrast, Joe Biden had a great deal of policy experience and knowledge, and had better “public relations” skills than Hillary Clinton. He had a top campaign staff that made big mistakes, but he followed his wiser inner circle instead. He realized the limits of mobilizing segments of the “Obama coalition” base that could not be mobilized beyond a certain limit, and focused more on the white working and middle class, from which he originated, than Hillary Clinton in 2016.
Trump, the Election and the Pandemic
Unlike right-of-center conservative and center-right forces in other countries, which favored the closing of non-essential businesses, mask-wearing, etc., during the Coronavirus pandemic, Donald Trump did not do this, and neither did various left-of-center, and populist, including right-wing populist, forces in other countries. His changing of the traditional foreign policy, which displeased many moderates & traditional conservatives, also lost him some Republican votes. Trump’s much greater losses of Republican votes than Biden’s losses of Democratic votes in Arizona (9% to 3%), Michigan (6-3), Wisconsin (7-4), and Georgia (6-4) led to his loss of the elections. Biden won the independents by 54%-41%, won by Trump in 2016 by 46%-42%. Biden won the moderates by 64-34, which Clinton won in ‘16 by 52-40.
The 2016, 2020, etc., Presidential Votes (I)
Votes by race???? 2016 D/R ‘20 D/R ‘04 D/R? 2000 D/R
Whites (71/67%) 37%/57%? 41/58?? 41/58????? 42/54
Blacks (12/13%) 89%/8%??? 87/12?? 88/11????? 90/8
Latino (11/13%)? 66%/28%? 65/32?? 53/44????? 67/31
Asian (4/4%)?????? 65%/27%? 61/34?? 56/44????? 54/41
Other (3/4%)?????? 56%/36%? 55/41
(Whites refers to non-Hispanic whites.) Joe Biden, a white Catholic, did as well among whites as the white Catholic Democratic nominee in 2004, John Kerry, and won the votes of the white Kerry voters who didn’t vote in 2008 and 2012. Trump did better among minorities in 2020 than in 2016, the greatest percentage of black votes since 1972, equal to that in 1996.
The 2016 & 2020 Presidential Votes (II)
Vote (race & gender)? 2016 D/R? 2020 D/R??? Notes???
White men (34/35%)? 31%/62%?? 38/61? Biden up 7%
?“ women (37/32%)??? 43%/52%?? 44/55? Trump up 3%
Black men (5/4%)????? 82%/13%?? 79/19? Trump up 6%
? “ women? (7/8%)????? 94%/4%???? 90/9??? Trump up 5%
Latino men (5/5%)???? 63%/32%?? 59/36? Trump up 4%
?? “ women (6/8%)????? 69%/25%?? 69/30? Trump up 5%
All others (6/8%)??????? 61%/31%?? 58/38? Trump up 7%
Biden did clearly better than Hillary Clinton among white men because he was one, & Hillary Clinton did relatively better among white women because she was one of them. Trump improved his 2020 performance among minorities and white women over 2016.
The 2016 & 2020 Presidential Votes (III)
Vote (by education ‘16/’20)???? 2016 D/R???????? 2020 D/R
Not college grad (50/59%)????????? 44%/51%???? 48/50
College graduate (50/41%)???????? 52%/42%???? 55/43
Among whites
College grad women (20/14%)?? 51%/44%???? 54/45
???? “????? men (17/17%)???????????????? 39%/53%???? 48/51
Coll. non-grad women (17/17%) 34%/61%???? 36/63
???? “?????? men (16/18%)??????????????? 23%/71%???? 28/70
Biden improved his performance the most among white college graduate men (he is one) and non-college graduate ones (as his parents were). A larger share of the electorate was made up of non-college graduates in 2020 than in 2016 (59% vs. 50%).
Comparing 2016 and 2020 (II)
Vote (by religion)?????? 2016 D/R?? 2020 D/R Change
Protestant (52/43%)? 39%?? 56%?? 39/60?? Trump +4
Catholic (23/25%)???? 46%?? 50%??? 52/47?? Biden + 6
Jewish (3/2%)?????????? 71%?? 23%??? 76/22?? Biden +5
Other (8/8%)???????????? 62%?? 29%??? 69/29?? Biden +7
None (15/22%)???????? 67%?? 25%???? 65/31? Trump +6
Trump increased his support among Protestants (he is one, like Clinton) and the non-religious, and Biden among Catholics and non-Christian religions. There was an increase in the % voting for Biden over Clinton among some Catholic and Eastern Orthodox Christian groups (e.g., Irish, like Biden, & also Poles, Lithuanians, Ukrainians, Romanians, etc., because of Trump’s soft talk toward Putin & Russia), Hindus, etc.
Voting by County (2020). Blue- Biden; Red – Trump. Turnout: 66.7%
Voting by County (2016). Blue- Clinton; Red – Trump. Turnout: 55.7%
Darker Shades Indicate Greater Vote Change from 2016 to 2020 by County. Red – more Republican; Blue – more Democratic
2016 & 2020 elections compared. Red – more Democratic in 2020; Blue – more Republican in 2020. Darker shade – greater change. See David Leip’s Election Atlas online.
Changes in Some States from 2016 to 2020 in swing states, Pennsylvania; Red – More Democratic, Blue - More Republican
2016 to 2020 Shift, Michigan; Red – More Democratic, Blue - More Republican
2016 to 2020 Shift, Wisconsin; Red – More Democratic, Blue - More Republican
2016 to 2020 Shift, Arizona; Red – More Democratic, Blue - More Republican
2016 to 2020 Shift, Georgia; Red – More Democratic, Blue - More Republican
2016 to 2020 Shift, Ohio; Red – More Democratic, Blue - More Republican
Ohio – Presidential Margin Shift/Swing from 2016 to 2020. Blue – in a Democratic direction. Red – in a Republican direction (detailed)
The Electoral Geography
The Northeast and the Pacific Coast (stereotypically) voted predominantly Democratic (pro-Biden-Harris), while the South, and the Great Plains voted Republican (pro-Trump-Pence). The mostly minority, & large city, counties, have voted more Democratic, and the rural & small town counties more Republican than in 2016. Biden’s stronger protectionism than Hillary’s helped him win Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, the Blue Wall Rust Belt areas. The most industrialized urban and environmentalist counties voted predominantly Democratic, more than in 2016; 73 of 75 suburban counties voted more Democratic in 2020 (pro-Biden) than in 2016 (pro-Hillary). Mormons voted more pro-Trump (71%) in 2020 than in 2016; Mexican-Americans & Cuban-Americans - more pro-Trump in ’20 than in ‘16.
“Outsider” Trump, Sanders, etc.
After the self-styled “outsider” billionaire developer Donald Trump won the presidency in 2016, he filled up his administration with many “business insiders” from the business sector. Hillary Clinton’s main Democratic opponent in 2016, the Democratic Socialist senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont, a semi-outsider leftist radical populist, attacked Hillary for being an “insider”, & was lukewarm in his endorsement of her because she had refused to promise him radical policies. This made Trump’s job easier. In 2020, Biden privately promised radical changes to Sanders, but did not intend to keep his word. Russia’s President Putin did not harm Biden’s campaign in 2020 as he had undermined Hillary’s in 2016. Unlike Clinton, Biden had not promised NATO membership to Ukraine & was seen as weaker than her.
PC, Black Lives Matter, Impeachment
The killings of George Floyd and other African-Americans by the police in 2020, and the subsequent Black Lives Matter protests were not addressed effectively by Trump’s anti-Politically Correct (PC) style. (The backlash against the PC focus on transgender bathrooms, micro-aggressions, etc., had helped Trump in 2016.) The more charismatic Trump was great at mobilizing his base with myths, symbols & rituals, and he got more votes in 2020 than in 2016, in both absolute numbers and as a percentage (46.9% vs. 46.1%), but not enough to win. Yet he alienated even more people. Impeached presidents (like Trump the first time, impeached in 2019, not convicted in 2020) are typically not re-elected throughout the world even if they are not convicted, as Trump was not re-elected in 2020.
Biden’s Limited Mandate, and the 2022 and 2024 Elections
Biden and the Democrats did not get a broad mandate, except in dismantling Trump’s abuses, because 1. he won the Electoral College because of disaffected Republicans in four of the five states that switched from Republican to Democratic from 2016 to 2020, 2. because this was more an anti-Trump than a pro-Biden vote, and 3. because of concerns over law and order that were addressed by Biden, but not by many Congressional Democrats. The Democrats lost the House and kept the Senate in 2022. The presidential elections of 2024 will be a toss-up (probably Biden vs. Trump). The greater support for smaller (“third”) party candidates could help Trump vs. Biden, Trump’s trials could help Biden vs. Trump, etc.
The 2024 Presidential Elections (Predictions from Sabato’s Crystal Ball)