Musings of a cyclist: The application to a resource constrained future

The life of a cyclist

As much of my LinkedIn network know, I am a pretty big advocate for cycling. For me, since beginning to cycle regularly there have been profound improvements in both my mental and physical health. It has also been a journey in breaking an entrenched behavioral lock-in; using modes of transport that did not benefit my mental or physical health such as driving far more regularly than required.

Being a cycling advocate I also get pats on the back. People will say to me how wonderful a job I am doing in helping protect the environment (as supporting ecosystems are in someway external to us?), and that I must be saving so much money! BUT..... ultimately the infrastructure that supports my cycling, my bike itself, and my ability to have the time to cycle as a privileged person are all associated with a system that does not appropriately value resource inputs, that are ultimately derived from the supporting ecosystem. The money I save is then used for other things such as intercity (driving) trips, to buy expensive food/drinks etc - rebound effect. Cycling does allow a greater ecological efficiency of meeting human development, but there is more to the story.

My level of income also plays into this, being at a level that generally I can absorb price increases in fuel without this impacting my wellbeing, like it would for others that are less well off; the diminishing marginal utility of income. Therefore, although cycling is far more beneficial for my wellbeing, breaking out of the behavioral lock-in has been difficult, and still a work in progress. Different tools to break entrenched lock-ins (technological, institutional, behavioral) will be required for those that sit in different socioeconomic brackets. This will be important to ensure that communities moving forward, in a time of increasing resource pressure, can be resilient (ability to both absorb and adapt to shocks) while maintaining a sufficient level of wellbeing. This learning should be the key takeaway and will be important moving forward: Behavioral change to enhance wellbeing and resiliency.

A world of unknowns

It is inevitable, on a finite plant that the opportunity cost of resource extraction will increase and societies will have to shift in response (I hope that this is not controversial). There will be a focus on increasing the resource efficiency of final goods and services through decoupling resource consumption from GDP (green growth), as well as a level of planned reduction in raw material throughput (degrowth), and other ideas / strategies. It is not black and white but changing shades of grey - the future is very uncertain:

• How will political economies shift? Will market / government failures be addressed in a timely manner?
• When will the thermodynamic reality [1][2] of our resources (fossil and mineral ore) really bite?
• How will the greater internalisation of environmental externalities (weird that the environment is considered external?) such as emissions and erosion play out?
• How fast will supply chains adjust, especially those with strong interdependencies (i.e. freight and diesel, refinery flexibility and crude oil grade, mining and diesel)?
• What will be the uptake rate (and varying barriers to uptake) of new technologies / business models (i.e. just because battery electric is better on emissions than diesel at the point of use does not mean the change will be rapid)?
• How will the fragility of the finance system change?
• How will increased freshwater pressure impact raw materials (fossil fuels, mineral ores) extraction and processing, electricity generation, food production and manufacturing (i.e. food-energy-water nexus)?
• What will the changing geopolitical climate look like?
• What will be the pace of innovation?
• How will natural disasters (climatic and non-climatic) impact supply chains?
• Many more....

We will need to take advice from Sustainability Transitions Research, Decision Making Under Deep Uncertainty, and other methodologies/branches of research that will likely be developed in the coming years to help us make decisions during times of deep uncertainty.

Is it time to re-prioritise our goals?

Behavioral change to enhance wellbeing and resiliency will be key as our political economies, with exceptionally high inertia to change, transition to ones which have a high ecological efficiency of human development, recognizing that development must be achieved within planetary boundaries. Although I am technology/fuel agnostic, and support innovation related to removing barriers that prevent technologies and fuels being used effectively, I think we are missing the bigger picture and struggle to see the wood for the trees.

People have greater resiliency when they are more connected to their communities, which also enhances their wellbeing - but on cold evenings we heat large spaces with low occupancy. Research shows that interacting with nature enhances wellbeing, and it is intuitive that green spaces are cooler - but large spaces are still cooled with low occupancy instead of exploiting green spaces. We look to batteries in providing flexibility to changing energy supply, but miss the opportunity to break extensive lock-ins that do not allow communities to collectively respond to changes in energy supply through social structure - breaking lock-ins [1][2] that allow flexibility in transport modes in response to energy supply changes. If the wind is not blowing how much should we rely on electricity storage compared to shifting behaviors?

The leanings I have obtained from cycling are very relevant to the concept of "strong sustainability" in which the supporting ecosystem, society and the economy are complementary in supporting wellbeing - not substitutable like in the mainstream view of "weak sustainability". Without a supporting ecosystem there is no society, and with no society there is no economy (once again, I hope this is not controversial). In breaking my transport lock-in I have become acutely aware that an increase in the consumption of goods and services (i.e. cars and supporting infrastructure) was by no means a replacement for the value I obtained from interacting with nature and being in a better place mentally to engage and interact with others around me. Less consumption of goods that are ultimately extracted from our supporting ecosystem such as fuel, roading material, and resources that go into a bike compared to a car has improved my wellbeing and resiliency; a sufficient level of consumption that complements my wellbeing.

Next steps

We assume a transition with more certainty than there likely is. There are plenty of plans and strategies for how to rapidly expand our renewable energy base, which is important, however this should be embodied in a framework that ensures transition pathways are adaptive to deep uncertainty, while striving to preserve wellbeing and build community resilience. Some key steps that we can take right now include:

1. Put in place a framework that allows for decisions to be made in times of deep uncertainty. Decision making for the future depends on anticipating change and this anticipation is becoming increasingly difficult. We continue to use short-term decisions when looking to long-term objectives. We do not sufficiently prepare for rare events (such as disasters) and are not building community resiliency to coming resource shocks.
2. The above framework should value policies across varying fields and not be locked into one. Neoclassical economics has value, same with ecological economics, and many others.
3. Apply the principles of "strong sustainability" moving forward. Value the opinions of ecologists, anthropologists, behavioral psychologists etc to a greater extent than present in increasing the ecological efficiency and resiliency of communities moving forward.