Munich RE. 2024 Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico storm season. The final Butcher's Bill.

My apologies for the length of this post. This has been a long season and try as I might, this makes a long read.

Strong wind shear from seasonal frontal activity combined with the northern hemisphere winter shift in the jet stream across cooled water, has finally seen off the record-breaking 2024 storm season.? Now is the time to reflect on how this panned out.

Over the eighteen years we have been producing the bulletins, I have always turned to the much-respected Colorado State University for a pragmatic and reliable outlook on the season ahead. This year, CSU did not pull any punches, citing above normal confidence for a meaningful estimate as early as April. ?Their outlook then was their most aggressive forecast since they began their pre-season estimates 30 years ago, predicting 23 named storms, 11 hurricanes and 5 major hurricanes. I did not concur fully with some aspects of their views and expected a slightly more conservative number overall, but did expect significant intensity, particularly for the continental United States, and made a reluctant stab at 20 named storms, 11 hurricanes and 6 major hurricanes.? The final tally of 18 named storms, 11 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes only tells half the story. Since 1991, the annual toll has consistently averaged 14 named storms with 7 becoming hurricanes and 3 becoming major hurricanes, but this is creeping up. We are passing this each year with total seasonal intensity statistics rising sharply. Climate change cannot be disputed since this is scientifically proven as a constant change. What is not constant is the speed of this level of climate change. This is the impact of global warming.? At this controversial point, I should reiterate add here that views expressed here are my own, and do not necessarily reflect those of the Syndicate.

The financial cost of this very active and extremely destructive?Atlantic hurricane season will be widely reported on, but as things stand, it holds the unfortunate record of being the became the second costliest on record thus far.? This has been a terribly destructive season, and I am again grateful that my employer allows me to use this summary for a moment’s reflection on human cost at the close of the season. We are again reminded of own human frailty?in the face of natural catastrophe.

2024. The Butcher's Bill.

Continuing our modest claim to be first in and last out every season, we picked up an eastbound low pressure cell in the Pacific on June 14th which jumped the fence into the Bay of Campeche.? As quick as a flash, just three days later, the professional agencies were on to it as it began to deepen 250 miles east of Tampico. This loafed around for a day or two before intensifying into Tropical Storm ALBERTO. This was to be a short-lived cyclone which peaked with winds of just 50 knots before making landfall near?Tampico. Despite being quite weak, ALBERTO became a sizeable storm and considerable rainmaker affecting Texas, Louisiana, and north-eastern Mexico claiming four lives in rainfall-related circumstances.?

This was a rather late start to a season, but lost time was soon made up with BERYL and CHRIS following in quick succession. BERYL presented a rare June major hurricane, in fact the earliest Category Five Atlantic hurricane on record, and only the second recorded in July. This was only our fifth disturbance of the season, which we picked up with a twinkle in its eye off the Cape Verde islands as it tracked west on June 26th which was picked up by the professionals two days later.? On July?1st BERYL made its first landfall on the island of?Carriacou, close to Grenada as a high-end Category Four hurricane with winds gusting up to 140 knots. We illustrated this at the time with comparison with the take-off speed for a Boeing 737 and the unimaginable threat to the good folk of Grenada and surrounding islands which suffered almost total devastation. There followed a series of wobbles and fluctuations in intensity as it pushed west, passing close to the south of Jamaica?and Cayman Islands then on to a landfall close to the south west of Cozumel into Mexico as a high-end Category?Two on July?5th. After weakening over the Yucatán Peninsula, BERYL then entered the?Gulf of Mexico, where it gradually reorganised into a Category?One hurricane on July?8th, just before final landfall near?Matagorda, Texas. BERYL slowly weakened ashore as it accelerated to the northeast, becoming post-tropical over Arkansas?on July?9th and dissipating altogether over Ontario.? BERYL left a train of destruction over a broad area from Grenada's northern islands and several of Saint Vincent and the Grenadines' southern islands into Venezuela where seven lives were lost as a result of the storm. Ashore in the United States, BERYL caused severe flooding and wind damage claiming forty two lives in the Houston area alone and precipitated a?prolific tornado outbreak across the southern US and north to Indiana, Kentucky, New York and Ontario. At the last count, BERYL had claimed seventy three lives.

CHRIS formed on June 30th and was to be a short lived and rather weak tropical storm, piping up in the Bay of Campeche and quickly landing some 85 miles along the coast south of Tuxpan. Despite its lack of destructive intensity, CHRIS was a rainmaker and caused six deaths from landslides and torrential rain.

We then entered the eye of the season, a period of respite with muck and filth both ahead and astern, but with clear blue skies and calm seas between them.? This lasted until early August when DEBBY broke the deadlock of Saharan air stifling development . DEBBY was a slow-moving, destructive and erratic?tropical cyclone?that caused widespread severe?flooding?across the?south-eastern United States, wreaking havoc as far north as?Quebec. DEBBY grew out of a tropical wave which piped after crossing the?Greater Antilles and moved on to form a tropical storm in the Florida Straits. DEBBY then moved north and gradually intensified into a Category One hurricane before making landfall just before sunrise on August 5th in the Big Bend region close to Steinhatchee with winds gusting 85 knots. DEBBY remained a significant rainmaker ashore causing widespread flooding before relaunching in the Atlantic briefly before another landfall in?South Carolina?early on August?8th. Heavy rainfall was exacerbated by the storm’s slow motion, reaching 20 inches near?Sarasota. Like BERYL, this was a tornado generator as it tracked the eastern seaboard reaching Quebec with flooding. During its destructive course, DEBBY claimed ten lives.

We tracked ERNESTO across the Atlantic from its early appearance off the Cape Verde Islands on until it formed a tropical storm after passing the Windward Islands. ERNESTO intensified as it moved through the Lesser Antilles, impacting the?Virgin Islands?and?Puerto Rico before reaching hurricane strength on August 14th and peaking at a Category Two. Dry air had its say, and the hurricane weakened before landfall over Bermuda as a Category?One storm.? After landfall, ERNESTO was up and down like a fiddler’s elbow, continuing to maintain hurricane intensity as it battled dry air and upper level shear while drawing power from warm water and rising air over the western Atlantic. Weakened but undaunted ERNESTO pressed on to brush the coast of Newfoundland before heading east across the North Atlantic. ERNESTO clocked up significant damage killing three swimmers in the Carolinas and even causing some flood damage to western Ireland and islands off the west coast of Scotland.

Following ERNESTO, there was an unusual break in activity across the tropical convergence zone, causing one of two of the more nervous commentators to revise their season’s outlook. Despite the welcome couple of weeks of happy sailors across the region, this was to prove to be very wishful thinking indeed.

We picked up FRANCINE quite early in the Atlantic as it made an uneventful crossing. Outcrops of Saharan air and belts of wind shear made this very much a ‘will it or won’t it’ disturbance. It did. Reaching the Bay of Campeche without serious interest,? FRANCINE found a development sweet spot and quickly reached hurricane intensity. With a clear twinkle in its eye, FRANCINE headed north and intensified strengthening into a Category?Two hurricane to make a landfall in Terrebonne Parish, Louisiana?on September?11th.?Rapid weakening followed and was soon off radar.? Whilst there were no fatalities, this was a rainmaker causing flooding occurred along much of the coastal area of the north-eastern Gulf of Mexico.? Offshore operators wisely wound down production in the Gulf of Mexico where, without wishing to tempt providence, yet another season-long bullet has been dodged.?

We need not dwell on fish storm GORDON. We picked the early swirls up as it formed near the Cape Verde Islands on September 7th as it slowly headed west and then north-west into the open Atlantic reaching tropical storm strength six days later, far from land. Persistent wind shear saw GORDON off four days later.

The season then began picking up with an area of low pressure forming in the far western Caribbean which intensified into tropical storm HELENE on September?24th and began moving through the Yucatan Channel, with a clear path to the east once it entered the Gulf of Mexico. The following day, HELENE reached hurricane strength and shaped up for Florida. It was already becoming apparent that this was to be a vicious storm. In advance of the storm’s landfall, the Governors of Florida and?Georgia?declared?states of emergency.?Hurricane warnings?also extended further inland due to the cyclone’s high ground speed.? On September 26th, HELENE made landfall as a strong Category Four hurricane just east of the mouth of?Florida's?Aucilla River. HELENE broke storm surge records for the Tampa area, with catastrophic flooding in?western North Carolina?and eastern Tennessee, set off a series of destructive tornadoes and has been attributed with at least 234 deaths.? This was the strongest hurricane on record to strike the?Big Bend region?of?Florida, the deadliest Atlantic hurricane since?Maria?in?2017, and the deadliest to strike the continental United States?since?Katrina?in?2005. Researchers with?World Weather Attribution have since?concluded that the intensity of HELENE was exacerbated by?climate change. In a scientific assessment, researchers found that HELENE had 10% more rain and aggregate wind speeds 11% higher as it passed over water that was 2.3 degrees Fahrenheit warmer than seasonal norms, all down to climate change. It’s a compelling read but will of course have its detractors. I will not be one of them.

With apologies to my seagoing colleagues, fish storms are most welcome in a busy storm season as they rack up the numbers without significant material or human cost. On September 24th we picked up a non-tropical low to the northeast of Bermuda which was blowing a hoolie. This transitioned quickly into tropical storm ISAAC 600 miles north-east of Bermuda. Eastbound, ISAAC steadily intensified into a Category?One hurricane on September?27th reaching peak as a Category Two storm the following day, as it milled around aimlessly far from land. There were a few reports of distant impacts with swells reportedly reaching Bermuda and a state of warning declared for the Azores but came to little after merging with another extratropical low.?

JOYCE was another welcome fish storm. This first appeared on our screens as a fairly uninteresting tropical wave moving off the coast of West Africa.?On September?27th, midway between the Cape Verde Island and the Caribbean, the disturbance found a sweet spot and developed into Tropical Storm JOYCE. This never amounted to much, peaking at just 50 knot gusts and weakening to a tropical depression the next day under the impact of strong upper level shear.

We all tend to look at the western hemisphere for the butcher’s bill following a significant hurricane. Following the trend of unconventional becoming more mainstream, KIRK was a fishstorm which did not impact any land mass in the western Atlantic aside from some high surf along the eastern seaboard but is attributed with material loss and human tragedy in Europe. KIRK took shape to the west of the Cape Verde Islands on September 28th and two days later developed into a tropical storm. KIRK intensified quickly, forming an eyewall and reaching hurricane intensity by early on September?30th. There followed a series of fluctuations in intensity as it curved away from the convergence zone and milled about in the Atlantic ranging from a Category?Four hurricane deep sea to an extratropical cyclone north of the Azores, before moving towards the west coast of mainland Europe.? After a landfall in Portugal, more than 300,000 households lost power and an estimated 65% of the nation’s apple harvest was wiped out. In France, over 64,000 people lost power with significant rainfall as far as Paris. Nine lives were lost in France, Spain and Portugal.

LESLIE was to be another fish storm. We spotted this leaving the African coast on September 26th and the professionals were on it just three days later. As the disturbance tracked slowly west and began heading into the central Atlantic, it eventually reaching Category One hurricane strength on October 5th and Category Two early on October 10th.? A day later, strong upper wind shear won the battle aloft and LESLIE began to succumb.

MILTON was a ghastly storm which became the second-most intense?Atlantic hurricane?ever recorded over the?Gulf of Mexico, behind only RITA in 2005. MILTON was long in the making as pressure gradients aligned in the far south-western Caribbean, tracking into the Bay of Campeche where it intensified becoming a hurricane two days later. On October?7th, MILTON went into a rapid intensification cycle to become a Category Five hurricane with winds of 160 knots and a barometric pressure of 897 mb making it the fifth-most intense Atlantic hurricane on record. As this tracked towards Florida, a few wobbles brought the intensification down to Category?Three just before making landfall near?Siesta Key?late on October 9th.? A state of emergency had already been declared in Florida with some coastal residents ordered to evacuate, as had the Mexican authorities in areas of the Yucatan peninsula. Nonetheless, despite preparations and advanced warnings, the tornado outbreak?and widespread flooding from MILTON claimed thirty two lives in the United States and a further three in Mexico.

The worst excesses of this record-breaking season were unfortunately far from over. On October?15th, a broad area of low pressure formed in the southwestern Caribbean which moved slowly north-west.?The system developed a defined surface pattern and was designated as Tropical Storm NADINE on October 19th, making a landfall near Belize City before tracking over central America as a powerful rainmaker. Albeit by then diminishing, NADINE was to cross areas ill-prepared for extreme conditions claiming at least six lives before reforming in the Pacific basin as (Pacific) Category Five hurricane Kristy?on October 21st but with no further incursion ashore.

Hurricane OSCAR was also destined to join the 2024 season record breakers, forming the smallest hurricane-force wind field on record in the Atlantic. This was however a powerful little bruiser which we had originally picked up at it left the African coast on October 8th. The seemingly endless crossing was uneventful and did not attract attention until a rapid burst of intensification took place as it approached the southern Bahamas. This formed Category One hurricane OSCAR. After peaking in wind intensity, OSCAR remained steady in intensity as it moved slowly towards?Cuba, making landfall late on October?20th with slightly weaker winds but at peak pressure intensity. Land interaction severely disrupted the small storm, and it emerged north of Cuba as a minimal tropical storm with a poorly-defined centre and soon dissipated.? Due to the storm’s rapid development, warnings and preparations were very much made at the eleventh hour which no doubt contributed to the loss of eight lives in Cuba, which also suffered a?severe national power outage.

Despite the nominal end of the season drawing near and a late lull, there were three more storms to come. The weakest was PATTY which first appeared as a non-tropical low centred 550 miles west of the Azores and found tropical storm strength on November 2nd. This weaved in and out of tropical formation and wavered in intensity without causing any significant material or human impact, aside from a small rain-generated landslide in the Azores and was done and dusted by November 4th. This was despite the Canadian Guy’s traditional assertion that PATTY would impact south-eastern England, coincidentally tracking across my home. Again. I will so miss him.

We had been watching the south-western Caribbean for ten days as pressure gradients aligned to form a low pressure system, with a clear run into the Gulf of Mexico opening up. Unusually early, warnings were being issued for Florida which seemed entirely likely to be bearing the brunt of another powerful storm.? The disturbance which formed quickly assumed tropical characteristics and intensified to tropical storm strength becoming RAFAEL.? A determined track towards the Yucatan channel over warm water allowed further deepening until it reached Category One intensity as it passed to the west of Jamaica on November 6th. Further significant intensification followed until RAFAEL reached Category Three hurricane strength later that day immediately before landfall over Playa Majana in southern Cuba with sustained winds of 110 knots.? RAFAEL then entered the Gulf of Mexico overnight as a weaker Category?Two hurricane. This was the turning point for Florida as, against all expectations, RAFAEL turned to the north-west. A period of further intensification followed becoming a Category Three hurricane once again. Upper level shear proved to be more than a match for RAFAEL which eventually dissipated in the central Gulf of Mexico.? The worst excesses of RAFAEL were felt in central America, Jamaica and Cuba. Seven deaths were reported in Panama, one in Colombia and two in Jamaica. As yet, none have been reported in Cuba.

A final slow moving disturbance which had been quietly crossing the Caribbean eventually formed a tropical storm as it closed on the coast of Honduras on November 14th.? Tropical storm SARA then turned and ran almost parallel to the coast of Honduras, eventually making a landfall about 100 miles west-nor’west of?Cabo Gracias a Dios. ?There followed a period of tracking parallel to the coast, half ashore, half at sea during which time the lives of three fishermen were lost, before moving ashore again over?Belize?on the morning of November?17th. SARA emerged into the Bay of Campeche and made a half-hearted shot at redevelopment, but by then, the Gulf of Mexico was closed for business with the winter wind shear shutters firmly in place. The 2024 season was over.?

Last year, we had a year of relative respite in human loss, albeit any death is one too many, with only 20 fatalities. Prior to that, we reported 304 deaths in 2022, 197 in 2021 and 486 in 2020. These are dreadful figures with many fatalities being avoidable and the current tally of 393 for the 2024 season remains a disaster in humanitarian terms. We can only hope that understanding storms and accepting the changing evolution of hurricane formation will always help those who can, to prepare, warn and protect those who cannot.? None should go gentle into that good night.

I won’t dwell on next year as I have already raised that in my final bulletin of the season and do not wish to extend this parting diatribe any longer than is necessary. Before year end, I hope to be permitted one last posting, the Sailor’s Bill.

That’s me then. All fast fore and aft. Finished With Engines.

Stand down.