Multifamily Landscape 2025

The multifamily market is navigating a complex landscape in 2025, characterized by a confluence of factors that are shaping its trajectory. While positive rent growth is anticipated, it's expected to fall short of historical averages, a trend mirrored by a modest increase in vacancy rates.

WHY? - This dynamic is largely attributed to a surge in new supply, particularly concentrated in the Sun Belt and Mountain West regions, which is exerting downward pressure on rent growth and occupancy rates in these areas. Conversely, markets with lower supply levels and less aggressive rent growth since the pandemic are poised to outperform.

Furthermore, the elevated and volatile interest rate environment continues to cast a shadow over the market. While transaction volume is projected to increase, the impact of higher borrowing costs on property values and investor returns remains a significant concern. Despite these challenges, the multifamily housing market remains attractive because there's a continuous housing shortage, strong home sales, and favorable demographic trends driving demand for rental housing.

This newsletter delves deeper into these key market drivers, providing insights into regional performance, investor sentiment, and the outlook for the remainder of 2025.

Key Market Drivers:

1. Economic Growth: The economy is projected to slow, with the labor market showing signs of moderation.
2. Supply & Demand:
3. New supply is expected to remain high in 2024 and early 2025, particularly in the Sun Belt and Mountain West.
4. Demand is anticipated to remain strong, driven by continued economic growth and demographic trends.
5. Interest Rates: Elevated and volatile interest rates continue to impact the market.
6. Rent Growth: Rent growth is forecast to be positive but below long-term averages.
7. Vacancy Rates: Vacancy rates are expected to increase modestly, remaining above historical averages.

Regional Performance:

1. Varied Outcomes: Performance will vary across markets.
2. Stronger Performance: Expected in markets with lower supply, such as smaller Sun Belt markets, secondary and tertiary markets, and larger coastal/gateway markets.
3. Weaker Performance: Anticipated in markets with high levels of new supply, particularly in the Sun Belt and Mountain West.

Transaction Activity:

• Increased Volume: Transaction volume is expected to increase in 2025 as interest rates stabilize.

Long-Term Outlook:

Despite short-term challenges, the long-term outlook for the multifamily market remains positive.

• Favorable Fundamentals: Factors such as a shortage of housing, an expensive for-sale market, and strong demographic trends will continue to support demand.

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