Mukesh Ambani and a Jio National Party?

When someone threw this curve ball at me in a village in Andhra Pradesh, I was kind of shocked. She said -

Why doesn't this Jio guy run for election? I will vote for him.

This article is not about Jio but how Mukesh Ambani has a potential political career ahead if he really seeks one.

Google Trends

While Mr. Ambani stands nowhere close to Narendra Modi, he is on par or marginally ahead of Rahul Gandhi and this is inspite of NOT spending any time campaigning in an election nor evincing any interest in politics in the public domain.

Our own survey shows close to 31% of our sample willing to vote for Mukesh Ambani in 2019. By the way, in our survey only 22% think that Rahul Gandhi is the best opposition candidate. That is in line with the Congress party vote share. At 31% Mukesh Ambani's party could match or even topple the BJP.

Why would people vote for Mukesh Ambani?

The top factor that appears to be appealing to people is that he is seen as clever and successful person. Somebody who has the ability to get things done. These are traits and outcomes that are attractive to middle class voters who are frustrated with the choices in front of them. Also, given his business background, there is an unsaid feeling that businesses will get the attention they deserve given how businesses are treated by political parties these days.

Can he do it?

The answer is YES. Voters all over the world have an attraction for successful billionaires and India is no exception. He has no shortage of resources which can enable him to build a massive party infrastructure overnight. He has unlimited access to voter behaviour and data that most political parties can only dream off. With most political parties fishing for rural votes, Ambani can change the game by focussing on urban voters (35%) and top 50% of rural voters giving him a 70% base or some 300-350 seats to start with which is also how many seats the BJP is competitive in at the moment. Further, he could resort to large scale hiring from other parties of leaders who have proven their competence in rural areas.

He could consider launching a party in 2-3 years time with the Municipal elections in Bangalore and then every other Municipal election between 2020 and 2024. This sets up the base for a contest in 2024 by when second tier and competent leaders of many of the current opposition parties would shit en masse to this new party.

So in practice, it is do-able but perhaps it is far more complex than I have stated here. But then Mukesh Ambani and complexity have a healthy relationship.

Will he do it?

My own sense is, politics is a much bigger fish to catch than a Telecom company or a massive refinery. To commit to politics will be a huge decision and that too when the results are uncertain. He must consider whether a historic opportunity to guide this young nation is a better one than building an industrial powerhouse. As things stand today, Mr. Ambani will certainly not consider it. But by end 2019, this may not be such a bad idea at all.