Much can change in a short period of time and that is certainly true of the housing and mortgage markets.

Following the ill-fated mini-Budget in late September, speculation raged that Base Rate would rise to 6 per cent, mortgage rates could hit double-digits, and a house price crash was inevitable.

Thankfully, it feels as though we are a million miles away from that. Yes, Base Rate is expected to rise again at the beginning of February to 4 per cent but that might be the end of it, or there may be the need for another tweak upwards.

But as inflation continues to fall, we would expect Base Rate to reverse. Market expectations are that this could happen from next year but interest rates may even start to fall by the end of this year should Rishi Sunak bring inflation under control, as pledged.?

This optimism is being reflected in five-year swap rates, which underpin the pricing of the equivalent fixed-rate mortgages. Several lenders have reduced rates in the past couple of weeks and we believe it is only a matter of time before five-year fixes edge below 4 per cent.

Long gone are the days of sub-1 per cent five-year fixes and we may never see the like of those again. But once borrowers get used to five-year fixes sitting between 3 and 4 or 5 per cent and appreciate that in an historical context such pricing is competitive, they will be happy to transact.

Currently, there is still some nervousness – nobody wants to lock in at too high a fixed rate in case they fall further. There are short-term options such as paying a little more and opting for a base-rate tracker with no early repayment charges, with a view to dropping onto a fix once these come down. However, if you can’t afford to be wrong –?that is, if rates were to rise you would struggle to pay your mortgage – then a fixed rate usually makes more sense, even if it costs you a bit more.

The doom-and-gloom of late September has shifted at a reasonable pace, which is good news for the market. The selling agents we work closely with have reported a strong start to the year and if properties are priced correctly, they will sell.