Ms. Must-Reads: Dec. 16
Ms. Magazine
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Some political pundits are arguing that messaging around abortion and the threat of a nationwide ban failed to move a majority of voters in the presidential election. But they should not be so fast to discount the power of the abortion issue in the elections: abortion was still a critical issue when it came to the Senate and down-ballot races.
Where does this discrepancy come from? As we continue to review polling and analysis in the wake of the election, it’s becoming clear that for many voters in key battleground states, the connection between Trump and the threat of a national abortion ban was unclear. Polling from Global Strategy Group found that a majority of the voters who determined the election outcome “did not believe the threat of a national abortion ban”: nearly 60 percent of swing voters were convinced that Trump wanted either “legal abortion with restrictions or illegal abortion with key exceptions.” It was an ambiguity that Trump clearly leveraged. Moreover, GSG’s polling shows that his “leave it to the states” messaging convinced enough swing state voters that Democrats’ warnings of a national ban were “hyperbolizing.”
Ironically, 66 percent of these swing voters—seven points more than the average voter, per GSG—want abortion to be legal in “all or most cases.” But for many, Trump’s abortion stance just wasn’t on their radar: less than one third of swing voters reported hearing a lot about Trump’s abortion position throughout the campaign.
In stark contrast, abortion-related messaging was quite effective when it came to winning key Senate races for the Democrats—in many of those same states where Trump won. Nearly 40 percent of swing voters in Arizona, Nevada, Michigan, and Wisconsin “believed their Republican Senate candidate wanted abortion illegal in all cases (compared to just a third who believed this about Trump), and 55 percent believed they would vote for a national abortion ban (46 percent believed Trump would sign one).” Using messaging that made the consequences for abortion clear, voters took these threats far more seriously when it came to down-ballot races.
The message couldn’t be clearer: abortion matters to the American people—and when messaging is correctly levered, it moves votes. Our own polling (done by Lake Research Partners for Ms. and the Feminist Majority Foundation) found that “nearly two-thirds of voters said [abortion] was important to their vote.” These numbers only grew among groups like women, Democrats, and Black and younger voters. Eighty-seven percent of Democrats and 59 percent of Independents listed it as an important issue. And sixty-eight percent of women and 82 percent of Black voters concurred, along with about two-thirds of both Gen X and Gen Z voters.
All these numbers just go to show that equating Trump’s success and the success of Republicans in Congress with support for abortion restrictions is misguided. And the fight is far from over: feminists in Congress, including the Democratic Women’s Caucus and its newly elected chair Rep. Teresa Leger Fernández (D-N.M.), have vowed to push back. “There’s a lot of firepower on the other side,” Fernández told me last week. “But what we have is each other’s stories, and we have the policies that actually serve people better.”
Unfortunately, even when voters have passed ballot measures enshrining the right to abortion in their state constitution, Republican attorneys general are still trying to push through abortion restrictions in states like Ohio and Arkansas.
领英推荐
As these attacks on abortion continue, and women continue to die preventable deaths from miscarriages gone wrong in states with restrictive bans, we’re seeing more clearly than ever what happens when we “leave it to the states”: a crisis.
Onward,
Kathy Spillar
Executive Editor
P.S. — As we continue to fight for our rights here in the U.S., women across the globe are risking everything for the chance to speak, resist, and claim their rights. If you have a moment this weekend, I highly recommend watching Sahra Mani’s documentary “Bread & Roses”—which, through videos taken by women in Kabul on their own phones, reveals a fierce Afghan resistance to the Taliban’s cruel gender apartheid edicts that’s virtually unknown to the outside world.
This week's Ms. Must-Reads: