MRKT UPdate
Energies are higher. Crude is up slightly as prices today have traded in a narrow range for the crude.
The market was supported Wednesday by the draw in crude oil--defying the build seen the night before in the API data --crude drew 1,085 mln --forecasts were for a drop of 2,0 to 2,5 mln bbls.....products built more than expected.
Gasoline stockpiles rose by 2,529 mln bbls--vs +1,9/+2,4 mln forecasts seen.
Gasoline stocks are the highest since March (Reuters) -stocks having risen for the 6th straight week. Gasoline stockpiles are now 5.2% above the five-year average, the widest surplus since mid-January.(Platts)--this all is contrasted by the rise in gasoline demand as per DOE data --Gasoline demand was seen +529,000 bpd to 9,411 in the latest DOE figures....Distillate demand also was up ---DOE saying it rose by 389,000 bpd to 4,12 mln bpd ---on the negative side Platts said that U.S. Atlantic Coast low and ultra low sulfur diesel stocks rose by 2,33 mln bbls on the week ---this might help to alleviate some of the premium for NY vs Chicago ULSD values--Wednesday the NY mkt carried an 18,5 ct premium --up from the 14,75 cts premium reported Tuesday. The premium had arisen due to tight supplies in the Atlantic region together with the post harvest decline in demand in the Midwest.(Platts)
In the Middle East destocking of heavier distillate stocks was seen in the latest supply figures from the key supply hub at Fujairah. ..Mideast refineries are expected to undergo extensive maintenance in Q1 2020 --this has contributed to gasoil and jet fuel contractual term prices to be transacted at cash differentials of up to 50% more than those seen in 2019. .Term volume amounts are seen being reduced by as much as 30%. (Platts)
Singapore gasoline cracks from Brent crude have fallen 2.15 dlrs in the past week according to Platts ---increase of flows from S Korea and China have hurt. The crack value of $4.45 seen Tuesday was the lowest since july 24th (Platts )
Today is the last trading day for the January WTI futures contract.
Technically the narrative remains that the crude oil and ULSD momentum indicators show an overbought status...
Feb WTI resistance is seen at 6111-17 then at the gap area on the daily chart at 6158-66----support is seen at
6037-39 then at 5989-93
RB for February is trading at the highest value seen since May --with a gap on the daily chart here up to 1.7072 --we see resistance in that area at 17065-73 ---support lies at 16872-82 ( the former is the overnight low )
Jan ULSD has resistance at the dbl top of Tues/Wed. at 20333-20344 --then at 20460-80--with support lying at 20125-44 ( dbl bottom from today /yesterday )--below which support is seen at 20025-28
NG is down 4 cts as Nat Gas Weather yesterday said they see low demand by late this weekend into next week for much of the nation, and N G I reporting today the prospect of warmer-than-normal conditions stretching further into the month of January.
The EIA data due out today is calling for a draw of 88bcf (WSJ survey ) to 93 bcf (Platts survey)--with
ICE swap mkt for the data quoted -99/-102 today ----last yr was -132 bcf 5 yr avg -112 bcf
Technically DC chart based momentum is neutral --with support at 2240-44 having been pierced today with a low of 2.232---below that support is seen at 2.213-16 then at 2.187 ----resistance lies at 2.310-15 then 2.342-48.
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