Mr. Irrelevant

I don't care too much for football, yet I'm watching football with a couple friends the other night (they're watching, I'm eating chicken wings), when all of a sudden the bar erupted with cheers. The San Francisco 49ers' quarterback Brock Purdy did something that was just great (I don't know what)?and one of my friends said, "way to go Mr. Irrelevant!"?

...and that's when I learned about "Mr. Irrelevant", the funny nickname given each year, in good jest, to the very last player chosen in the NFL draft. The reason? Because odds are he's not nearly as good as the others, and he'll probably never get to play. But is that name really fair? I mean, I just watched 50 people jump out of their seats because of something Mr. Irrelevant just did.

I did some digging into the history of the NFL draft, and learned that, no, that name is not fair at all. Especially for Kelvin Kirk, the very first man to be crowned Mr. Irrelevant in 1976. Why is it not fair? Over the 89 year history of the draft, each year on average about 183 players - chosen from about 290 - will ever see any playing time. In the year Kelvin Kirk was in the draft pool, he was chosen dead last out of 487 athletes. He wasn't a bad player - he had a notable, seven year career in the Canadian Football League - it's just that the odds were artificially stacked against him, as in the year of his draft there were more than double the players needed.

If the NFL only 'needs' a little over 180 players each year, why have a draft system that pulls from 300 players? Or 400? Or 487 as so happened in 1976 when Kelvin Kirk and 250 other men didn't even stand a chance? Why waste the time? I'm sure the NFL has its reasons, but to me this seems like a highly inefficient way to choose the next group of new players year after year.

Draft Efficiency

Starting in 1936, when the NFL draft first began, I calculated the percent of draftees that played from the total number of draftees that were. In 1936 there were 81 players on the draft, 28 of them got to play in the NFL, which equates to a success rate of 34.57%. Over the years that rate went up to 60%, down to 23%, up to 40%, and down to 30% again, and so on - fluctuating over the years without any rhyme or reason. So, too, did the number of players fluctuate randomly. Starting with 81 eligible players in the first year's draft, it rose to 100 for a couple years, then 200, then 300, down to 200 again, then 300 for a while, then 200's again and all of a sudden a spike to the 400's - almost reaching 500 - and down to 200 yet again. Madness.

What Happened In 1993?

Then, suddenly, between 1992 and 1993 something happened. I tried to find news articles, and all I found was that the NFLPA (NFL Players Association) reached a settlement in court about free agency and salaries, but nothing about a draft. I asked close friends with deep knowledge of the game as well, and they - too - didn't offer up much more than 'didn't they strike that year?' - they didn't. What I found in the numbers was that in 1993's draft - and every draft since - everything suddenly leveled out.

• From 1936 to 1992 the number of rounds in the draft fluctuated from 8 to 32, but since 1992 there have only been 7 rounds each year.
• From 1936 to 1992 the number of draftees fluctuated like mad from the 200's to the 400's and back down again, but since 1993 there have been only 250 eligible players each year (give or take a few).
• From 1936 to 1992 as many as 60% of draftees, to as little as 23% of draftees, ever saw any playing time. Since 1993, and every year since, around 90% see playing time. The question shifted from 'will I get to play' to 'who do I get to play with'.

Mr. Relevant

In the history of the NFL draft, the final name on the draft - Mr. Irrelevant - found a spot on a team and and actually played 36.36% of the time. But that's over the entire history of the draft. The name was coined in 1976, before whatever happened, happened, in 1993. And during the the pre-1993 era, from 1936 to 1992, only 24.56% of Mr. Irrelevant's ever saw any playing time. Not too shabby - about 1/4. Since 1993? 58% (more than half) of Mr. Irrelevant's drafted in that time have played - or are currently playing - in the NFL.

Mr. Irrelevant vs. Everyone Else

It makes sense that all the names on the draft are arranged with the person with the best record at the top, and the person with the least spectacular record at the bottom. So, of course, if makes sense that the #1 draft pick is the most sought after by teams and almost guaranteed a playing position, whereas the guy at the bottom might not. So, too, does it make sense that the further away you are from the #1 position in the draft, the smaller your chances become for playing on a professional team. Again, looking at the entire history of the NFL draft, the #1 draft pick has a 97% chance of playing professional football, 10th place has a 93% chance, 20th place has a slightly better chance than 10th for some reason, and then it tapers off from there. But, if we look at the pre-1993 era numbers, we'll see there's a steady decline in a player's chance to play the further down the rankings they are in the draft. Yet if we look at the post-1993 modern-era of the draft, the #1 draft pick, and all the way to the 70th, have a nearly 100% chance of making a pro team - with the chances never going below 74% all the way to the 200th draft pick.

There Is No Mr. Irrelevant

Yes, the odds are low for the last man in the NFL draft that he'll ever play, but as of 1993 the odds are better than a coin-toss. Brock Purdy and Kelvin Kirk are in good company.