Mr. Franklin's Advice

So what does this?mean in the project?management?domain?

Plans are strategies for the success of the project. Strategies are hypotheses. The hypothesis needs to be tested to determine its validity. These tests - in the project domain - come from setting a plan, performing the work, assessing the compliance of the outcomes with the plan, and taking corrective actions in the next iteration of the works.

This seems obvious, but when we hear about the failures in executing the plans, we have to wonder what went wrong. Research has shown many Root Causes of project shortfalls. Here are four from our domain:

• Unrealistic performance expectations, missing Measures of Effectiveness and Measures of Performance.
• Unrealistic cost and schedule estimates based on inadequate risk-adjusted growth models.
• Inadequate risk assessments and unmitigated exposure to these risks with proper handling plans.
• Unanticipated technical issues without alternative plans and solutions to maintain effectiveness.

The root cause for each of these starts with the lack of the following

Unrealistic Performance Expectations

When we set out to define what performance is needed, we must have a means of testing that this expectation can be achieved. There are several ways of doing this:

• No Prototypes
• No Modeling and Simulations of performance outcomes
• No reference design to base modeling on to discover needed changes in baseline system architecture
• No use of derived products

Unrealistic Cost and Schedule Estimates

• No Basis Of Estimate (BOE).
• Optimism bias
• No parametric models?
• No understanding of irreducible uncertainties in the duration of work
• No reference classes.

Inadequate Assessment of Risk

• Not understanding "Risk management is how adults manage projects" - Tim Lister.
• No risk register connected to planning and scheduling processes
• No Monte Carlo assessment of risk impacts on cost and schedule
• No risk mitigation in baseline
• Inadequate Management Reserve developed from modeling processes

Unanticipated Technical Issues

• No Plan B
• No in-depth risk assessment of technologies
• No "on-ramps" or "off-ramps" for technology changes

These?issues?can be addressed through a Systems Engineering process using Measures of Effectiveness, Measures of Performance, and Technical Performance Measures. The planning process uses these measures to assess the?credibility?of the plan and the processes to test the hypothesis.?