Mozambique Elections 2024: Mondlane's battles
25 October 2024
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#Mozambique's Election Overview
Outrage grows at double murder of opposition lawyers, Elvino Dias and Paulo Guambe, in the early hours of 19 October. The pair were due to present their claims that the ruling Frente de Liberta??o de Mo?ambique (#Frelimo) party had rigged the 9 October election this week.
Witnesses describe the double murder as a planned assassination. The car that Dias and Guambe were travelling in was blocked from moving and two gunmen shot at both sides of their car. Police were slow to arrive and refused to allow Guambe to be taken to a hospital. They also prevented witnesses filming Dias and Guambe’s car and destroyed bystanders’ mobile phones to prevent the release of footage.
Opposition presidential candidate, Venancio Mondlane, called for a two-day national strike as protests escalate after the assassinations. It comes as reports of violence against protesters and journalists are growing – with protestors saying that tear gas and rubber bullets were deployed, wounding many. Video footage shows another young man apparently being shot in the head in #Maputo.
Opposition candidates worry that without Dias’ expertise, their case will be thrown out or delayed on technicalities – allowing Frelimo to continue its grip on power.?
Though Frelimo claims victory in this election, concerns of election fraud is becoming increasingly clear – at the expense of newcomer, Venancio Mondlane’s Partido Otimista pelo Desinvolvimento de Mo?ambique (#Podemos) party.
With a history of electoral interference and a panoply of state power, the ruling Frelimo has been mired by recent failures to end the #CaboDelgado insurgency and spotlighted by the $2 billion ‘secret loans’ scandal. The EU Observer team noted ‘an evident tilting in the playing field’ by Daniel Chapo’s party – and #Mo?ambique’s transparency watchdog, the Centro de Integridade Pública (CIP), points to variable turnout in Gaza province as evidence of rigging.
Opposition supporters say ballot boxes in areas with large opposition support have been illegally removed and destroyed. Frelimo also seems to have inflated its traditionally high rural support, which has suffered from low turnout. Venancio #Mondlane has started a parallel count and has declared a landslide victory – though insiders close to the Comiss?o Nacional de #Elei??es (CNE) say it will be hard for him to prove this.?
As chaos erupts on Mozambique’s streets and the government is accused of orchestrating planned assassinations of government lawyers, outgoing President Felipe Nyusi remains silent.
Frelimo’s main statement comes from presidential candidate Daniel #Chapo, who calls for an ‘impartial, independent and rigorous’ investigation. Chapo’s call is seen by many as farcical given that much of Mozambique’s judges are politically compromised – with civil society groups alleging that not a single political killing has ever been solved under Frelimo.
The #EU’s high representative has condemned the killings ‘in the strongest terms’, calling for an ‘immediate, thorough and transparent investigation’ to bring justice to those responsible. The EU’s Chief Observer, Laura Ballarín, has also ‘noted irregularities during counting’ and calls for immediate ‘publication of disaggregated results by polling station’ to safeguard the ‘integrity of results’.
The struggle comes at an important geopolitical moment. Amidst regional froideur between Kigali and Pretoria, #Rwanda is expanding its security presence in Mozambique.
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The RDF has expanded its presence in Mozambique just as Southern African Development Community (#SADC) troops, led by South Africa, are leaving – frustrated at President Filipe Nyusi’s failures to cooperate with the regional bloc.
At Nyusi’s request the SADC troops were sent to marginal districts – while Rwandan troops were shown favour, being deployed to areas of rich mining interests, including #Palma and #MocímboadaPraia. Rwanda’s efforts strengthen the RDF’s reputation propping up regimes facing insurgencies. It’s efforts in Mozambique will also boost Rwanda’s revenue and shore up plaudits from European financiers and backers.
Rights activists worry, however, that the RDF is using its presence in the country to target dissidents while local security turns a blind eye. With Mozambique’s ruling Frelimo party facing growing resistance in the wake of its attempt to steal the elections on 9 October, Rwanda’s military might is set to play an increasingly important role.
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