Moving into 2021: Here is how to survive, and thrive.

The ongoing Covid crisis is creating an entirely new world on many levels: economically, socially, psychologically. The 1918 influenza pandemic was initially of interest mainly to epidemiologists, virologists and medical historians. It quickly became the focus of attention for economists, sociologists, psychologists who -for a whole century- have been analysing its causes and consequences.

History repeats itself, for bad and for good.

We are in 2020, still. Economically we are witnessing one of the greatest wealth transfers in history. In terms of the business landscape, here is what we are about to see in 2021:

·     Some big business will rebound, and some big businesses will go bankrupt and, in fact, making big noise.

·     For some companies and professionals the pandemic has been a chance to open a new chapter, diversify their offering and adapt their business models.

·     For other businesses the stark lock-down measures and continuous shutdowns have forced them out of the market or go under administration.

We are seeing an unprecedented acceleration in bankruptcies -in our lifetime at least. In the States, some long established brands like Brooks Brothers, Virgin Atlantic, Le Pain Quotidien US, Hertz, Neiman Marcus, J. Crew are some of the companies that declared bankruptcy or entered Chapter 11. Restaurants, retail, construction, real estate and transportation are among the hardest hit sectors. In the gloomy Brexit climate, the British economy had been under considerable strain for a few years now with many businesses having to let staff go even before the pandemic begun.

The outbreak accelerated the downward spiral of companies that were already struggling or overspending. Any companies whose leadership lacked the wisdom to implement lean business models in time, is either going bust or entering administration. In London last week one of the most popular private members clubs, The Conduit in Mayfair, announced that it was forced to pause its operations, to the huge disappointment of its loyal members -me being among them. The impact from the lock-down measures was way too heavy to bear.

For many visitors to the UK, iconic shops such as Selfridges, Harrods and the Queen's grocer Fortnum & Mason are a quintessential part of Britain. Due to the pandemic the tourists who sustain the high-end retail sector are gone, forcing drastic decisions and massive layoffs. As of August 2020, Harrods had cut 700 jobs out of 4800, Selfridges 450 and Burberry 500. Pret a Manger has laid off 2,890 people, a third of its staff. Thousands of those who remained are now from 35-hour contracts to 28 hours a week. The new lock-down at the end of 2020 is a massive blow given the 'cancellation of Christmas' at least in the sense of the celebratory self-indulgent time of the year, that traditionally attracted international consumers to London for their Holiday Season hopping spree.

But, enough with the gloom and doom. What is next? Clearly no one can predict with precision. Yet, there is a bright side in all this.

New, ambitious, exciting ventures, healthier business models and social impact driven companies are emerging from this chaotic landscape. Peers and friends often ask me what is the strategy that I propose in these times in order to survive and thrive. Here we are:

Zero Waste Leadership

1.    We have to accept that change is happening. There is really nothing that we can do to stop this change or to revert to the old normal. There is no ‘normal’ anymore. Zero waste management, agility and adaptability are the weapons companies and professionals currently need to survive the transition to a new world.

Staying Relevant

 2.    We have to stay relevant with our clients, markets and partners. The companies and teams to win this war will be the ones who will continue to stay informed, connected and attuned to emerging trends.

Exploring New Directions

 3.    Adapt our messaging in ways that project: optimism, vision and relevance. Challenges can always be transformed into opportunities. This is a tremendous momentum to reset towards new directions and to focus on positive action. Not to allow fear and insecurity to hold us back, maintaining engagement and relevance is key.

Looking for the Visionaries

 4.    We connect with people who are visionaries. They are the ones who monitor weak signals and they spot future trends before anyone else.

 Over the next few months pretty much every business will come under one of these three categories:

· Winners: the ones with lean business models and adaptable, agile culture.

· Washouts: those whose management style lacked forth-sight and their sector is suffering.

· In-betweens: companies who have the potential to be on the winning side but this will be subject to their leadership’s insightfulness and decisions. 

People are moving online to do their shopping. Amazon added 100,000 new jobs to manage the extra demand. Sectors like online retail, video conferencing, logistics and delivery, streaming and gaming, online coaching and education, pharmaceuticals are providing extraordinary opportunities for robust ideas and startups. In the medium and longer term: the combination of the new ‘remote work’ reality and the dropping prices in the real estate sector will create an opportunities-laden landscape for a number of industries.

In 2021, and beyond, people are going to need new spaces to work from, belong to, reconnect with peers again, and be inspired by.

Continuing on the upside, there is a sense of solidarity and people are moving closer together. New projects are being created. There is a spirit of stewardship, social entrepreneurship and empathy permeating our conversations. Technology is offering enormous opportunities to learn, work, connect, build new networks and swim to the other side.

Social impact investment is unlocking new potential for profiting with purpose. The deck of cards is being shuffled right now so stay around the table, with perseverance, alertness and vision.

As Winston Churchill famously said, ‘never waste a good crisis'. At Global Thinkers Forum and Athena40 we are missing enormously our in person events, yet in the new landscape which has been shaping over the past few months, we continue our output in a variety of new ways that means we meaningfully connect with people and our exceptional network of social impact leaders.