Dim Sun –?The Divisive Plan To Beat Climate Change. Old Bears, New Bubbles. And Good Medical News... Plus More! #201

Grüezi!?I’m Adrian Monck – welcome!

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1???Dim Sun. Or Can We Ban Rays?

Or, at least, can we beat climate change with sky sprinkles?

Outgoing US Climate chief John Kerry this week:

“Point blank: we are heading towards about 2.5°C right now.”

Yikes. What can stop us? Negotiations don’t seem to ge going far or fast enough.

What if there was something more we could do to stop the planet boiling over?

The Swiss just proposed a global debate on dimming the sun – putting tiny particles in the atmosphere to simulate a volcanic eruption. No joy. Their proposal to even talk about it got slapped down.

?? Solar Dimming: the Pros and Cons ???

The good news? Solar dimming looks like it could be effective in cooling the planet and relatively affordable. ??

The bad? Solar dimming could have severe unintended consequences that affect the entire planet , from damaging the ozone layer to disrupting global weather patterns.???

And there’s no way to just sprinkle a little sunshine-stopping powder over your backyard.

What to do?

1. Keep researching. Fill gaps in knowledge gaps and find out more about potential impacts. ??
2. Try and get some agreement. If it’s something affecting all of us, out governments probably need to shake hands on some kind of deal. ??

??For podcast fans, BBC’s Inside Science took a look at Solar Dimming.

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2?? The US Bubble is Going to Burst

Says the biggest, oldest bear on Wall St...

When it comes to markets, Jeremy Grantham is probably older and bearier than Yogi, Baloo, Kung Fu Panda and any other fictional ursine you care to mention.

His latest bearish note? A concerning paradox in the US stock market. ????

Stock prices are extremely high by historical standards, suggesting rosy-eyed investors expect companies to keep posting big profits. ?? ??

And the real world? Not rosy. ????

Grantham sees four big concerns:

1. ?? Climate change – no longer a distant threat but a present reality, causing significant economic damage.
2. ?? Resource scarcity – prices are rising for raw materials and its increasingly difficult to find key resources.
3. ?? Environmental pollution – the spread of micro-plastics and ‘forever’ chemicals pose serious health risks.
4. ?? Population problems – falling birth rates and aging populations are hitting productivity and economic growth.

As Grantham says:

“The stark contrast between apparent embedded enthusiasm and these likely problems seems extreme, illogical, and dangerous.”

Despite these looming threats, the US stock market seems to be ignoring the warning signs, with investors focusing on short-term gains and neglecting the fundamental disconnects. ??♂???

Bridgewater’s Ray Dalio , quipped one of his staff, called 15 of the last zero recessions.

So is Grantham right? Let me know in the comments!

??Bloomberg’s John Authers also thinks we’re in a bubble ...

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3?? Want Some Good Medical News?

Travel back to the days when this guy was a TV doctor.

When George Clooney hung up his stethoscope, scientists had only just figured out what caused cystic fibrosis.

Since then? Progress ! Here’s The Atlantic:

• “Cystic fibrosis once all but guaranteed an early death. When the disease was first identified, in the 1930s, most babies born with CF died in infancy.
• “The next decades were a grind of incremental medical progress: A child born with CF in the ’50s could expect to live until age 5.
• “In the ’70s, age 10. In the early 2000s, age 35.
• “With Trikafta came a quantum leap. Today, those who begin taking the drug in early adolescence, a recent study projected, can expect to survive to age 82.5—an essentially normal life span.”

??Here’s the Cystic Fibrosis Foundation on the condition .

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4?? Faxes On The Frontline

The German military’s museum-grade comms.

Vorsprung durch Technik was Audi’s catchphrase when I was growing up. It conjured an image of laser-pointing engineers on stainless steel factory floors.

Germans may be à la mode in machine tools but when it comes to digital technology? 82% of German companies still use fax machines .

The FT introduced Eva H?gl ’s review of the German military like this:

“Radios that cannot communicate with allies; paper-only medical records that need to be mailed; military documents sent by fax, rather than secure email.”

I couldn’t find the reference to faxes in the report, but I’ll take Sam Jones ’ word for it.

I did notice one change from last year’s report. They left the fax number off (+49 30 227-38283, in case you’ve been trying).

??Bavaria is taking an axe to the fax.

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5?? How to Get Health to the World’s Poorest Kids

This Kenyan surgeon is doing it.

Probably the single best thing I did at the World Economic Forum was take a great group of people from The Forum of Young Global Leaders to Kakuma in northern Kenya.

It’s commonly called a refugee camp, but it’s really a city of people that the world chooses to exclude from bureaucracy. Bureaucracy like health insurance.

How do you fix that? You can find out how by listening to Neema Kaseje , a remarkable paediatric surgron who just makes things happen.

??This is the charity Neema works with to make things happen.

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6???What Happens When You Lose Your Partner

Your home. And your identity...

Few things are more powerful than identity, and few jobs shape identity more powerfully than the military.

Few jobs also shape the identity of everyone around that person.

Jilly Carrell ’s husband Nick was an army colonel. Her identity? Army spouse:

I thought I knew everything about being an armed forces spouse – the mobility – 8 schools for our girls – the deployment – 6 tours of Afghanistan – abandoning my career to take piecemeal jobs.

Here’s what she didn’t know when he died, aged just 52:

• “We had 93 days to vacate our home... We had to leave the community we’d lived in for almost 2 decades –
• “Were we still armed forces? No, we’re not serving. Were we veterans? No we never served.
• “So who are we? We’re adrift and so are so many other military bereaved families. I am working to change the narrative...”

Beyond the grief and pain of losing a loved one, reading her post is a painful reminder of the shallow foundations on which the most solid of “identities” rests. Also a reminder of how we support the families of service personnel.

??The US has a major study of the impact of military bereavement on families.

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7?? Had A Bad Week?

Take courage from someone else’s courage.

In case you feel that life has kicked you in the teeth this week, former aid worker and journalist Simon Boas has a wonderful post on “hopping the twig” – and what it means to be alive:

• “At 46, I have lived far longer than most of the humans in the 300,000-year history of our species. So have you, probably.
• “And if the book of my life is shorter than many modern people’s, it doesn’t make it any less of a good read.
• “Length and quality are not correlated in lives any more than they are in novels or films. So carpe that diem and keep it carped.
• “And enjoy the tiny ways you can make other people a little happier. That’s actually the secret of being happy oneself.”

It’s a reflection full of humour, warmth and gratitude. You won’t regret it.

??The greatest, funniest epitaph in history is – of course – Jonathan Swift’s .

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If you enjoy this newsletter – please recommend it!

Best,

Adrian