The Most Popular College Majors Likely to Be the Most Disrupted

?? Another crazy admissions year; what happens when most jobs are disrupted; and the debate over math in California. Here are excerpts from Next. Sign up here.

EVENT

?? ???The “Next Office Hour” on Tuesday, April 23 at 2 p.m. ET/11 a.m. PT?will focus on student wellbeing and how colleges need to redesign the student experience to make their institutions more welcoming and safer. Joining me in the discussion will be:

• Fran'Cee Brown-McClure, Ph.D. , Vice President for Student Affairs, Jackson State University
• Robert Hradsky , Vice President for Student Engagement, Syracuse University
• Luoluo Hong, PhD, MPH , Vice President Student Engagement and Well-Being, Georgia Institute of Technology

?? Register for free here to join live or to get an on-demand recording afterwards. (Support from Vector Solutions )

THE LEAD

If you thought last year’s college admissions cycle was the craziest ever, all you had to do was…wait for this year.

As I outlined in a new article in New York magazine, applications are up, again–6% over last year’s record haul for the Common App.

“I find it very challenging to come up with target and safety schools for students anymore,” Weeze Cullen, a college and career specialist at Winter Park High School near Orlando told me for the piece.?

This article got its start last November when an editor suggested I try to get back inside a college admissions office five years after I did for Who Gets In and Why. I asked a dozen colleges if I could observe their process in light of the changes to admissions in recent years. They all said no, fearing an outside observer in the first year they were also trying to navigate the aftermath of the Supreme Court decision.

But several admissions deans were willing to be interviewed about their process and how it’s changed. The most forthcoming was also one of the veterans of the dean corps at highly selective colleges: Christoph Guttentag at Duke.

Guttentag has been in his job at Duke since 1992. During his tenure, applications to Duke have basically quadrupled; in the last five years, they are up 37%. Even Guttentag himself reviews apps (his territory is New York City). “Ten before ten” is his goal each morning during the winter, he told me.

What Guttentag does most mornings is the initial pass for Duke. Once again, I was reminded there is no single admissions “process.” Every college has their own twist on how they review applications.

Duke doesn’t have a “first reader” in the classic sense of the term in admissions. As I wrote in the article, Guttentag and other admissions officers are deciding in the first pass if this “is a competitive applicant and can be moved on to another admissions officer for a detailed evaluation — and eventually a larger committee where most final decisions are made. These days fewer than half of applicants to Duke go through that full evaluation process.”

Later this month, when Duke releases its regular decision apps, it will say no to almost everyone — some 95% of applicants. “To get there, Guttentag knows that ‘roughly, I have to say no to about two-thirds to three-fourths’ in this early pass.”

“Since the turn of this century, the number of applications to the 67 most selective colleges in the nation, which includes Duke, has tripled — to nearly 2 million a year,” I wrote in the article. “That has translated into more stress and longer odds for a lot of applicants, and a much more complicated set of considerations for colleges, in terms of who to admit and when to admit them.”

Application inflation at the top also has had implications for colleges and universities further downstream, which is why the entire process seems crazier than ever for students, parents, and counselors. As I point out in the piece, yield is freefalling at all but the very top schools bringing even more uncertainty to colleges. Add in the botched FAFSA rollout this year and it’s a recipe for a process that every year is labeled as worse than the one before it–all since the pandemic cut the 2019-2020 admissions cycle short four years ago this month.

In reporting the piece over the last few months I was persuaded more than ever that we need to open the aperture on the lens of our college search. Duke is a very good university. So, too, are the other universities, including Emory, Vanderbilt, and UCLA, where I talked with deans about how their process has changed in recent years. But the reality of the math is that they are almost unattainable for most applicants. It’s why a “wall of 5’s” on the AP exams doesn’t move the needle at Duke like it used to, as you’ll read in the story.?

My plan a few weeks ago had been to hold back this reporting for the new book. It illustrates how the landscape has shifted and why we need to set our sights on a wider set of schools (and what we’re looking for when we do). And while I did set aside some of the research for the next book, this article includes what you need to know about a crazy year in admissions–one that is almost over…until next year.??

?? Read “Inside the Craziest College-Admissions Season Ever” in New York magazine

More than one-third of the top 20 skills requested for the average job in the U.S. have changed since 2016. One in five skills is entirely new.

• And certain sectors—including fields that are also popular college majors such as information technology, marketing, human resources, and sales—have changed faster than others, according to this report from the The Burning Glass Institute and 波士顿谘询公司 .

Why it matters: The need to upskill and reskill is imperative in a fast-changing economy, but many working adults around the world don’t know what they need to upgrade their skills and don’t know where to start or where to go to get what they need.

• Colleges and other training providers are increasingly working with employers to determine their needs and build programs that meet those needs.
• “We always start with conversations with local employers,” Kathleen Plinske , the president of Valencia College in Florida, said during the “Next Office Hour” webcast on Tuesday on reskilling and upskilling in the new economy.?

What’s happening: Valencia’s Accelerated Skills Training program is a leader in the retraining effort nationwide. It has more than 1,000 graduates a year in everything from the 10-week Electronic Board Assembly program to the 22-week Robotics & Semiconductor Technician program.

• The programs lead to industry certifications, Plinske said. "So that's really the measuring stick by which we know that our program completers are ready for the workforce. What's exciting about those industry certifications is that they can articulate later for college credit.”
• The biggest barrier for working adults, both Plinske and Johnese Harris, a working learner from Bellevue University in Nebraska, told us is the “opportunity cost” of not working, and not the tuition cost.
• "So if later they want to continue their college education, they have the opportunity to do so and have a head start toward a degree,” Plinske said.

What’s new: Employers are also using “gigs,” or short-term projects outside of an employee’s current role to develop skills or get exposure to other jobs,?said Esther Stine, SHRM-SCP , senior director of organizational learning and development at Workday .?

• At Workday, 36% of employees who participated in gigs in the last two years are more likely to move into another role, and 40% of those who did were moving upward.

How it works: At Workday, the gigs last anywhere from six weeks to six months, but no more than 20 hours a week.?

• “It's very much done in alignment with their manager,” Stine said. “There's a lot of support, collaboration, and mentorship. We're seeing that this is effective” in getting employees upskilled and reskilled while also continuing regular operations.

??? Watch an on-demand recording of the “Next Office Hour” here (registration required; support from Jobs for the Future (JFF)

SUPPLEMENTS

?? The Debate Over Rigourous Math in California. "Last month, the University of California notified California high schools that three of the most popular data science courses no longer count toward the advanced math requirement because the classes fail to teach the upper level algebra content all incoming students must know. The decision has ratcheted up math anxiety and fomented confusion among high school students throughout California as they chart their high-stakes path for coveted UC admissions.” (Los Angeles Times)

?? A Story Worth Watching, Part I. Clemson University?filed a lawsuit against its athletic conference, the ACC, "that portends its exit from the league. In a filing in the court of common pleas in Pickens County, South Carolina, Clemson calls into question both the ACC's grant of rights and exit fees, calling the withdrawal penalty 'unconscionable' and 'unenforceable.'" (ESPN)

?? A Story Worth Watching, Part II. "Connecticut lawmakers have advanced a bill? that would ban the state’s public and private colleges from using legacy admissions to give preferential treatment to applicants related to alumni. Lawmakers on the state’s higher education committee also added a ban on policies that give an admissions advantage to applicants related to college donors." (Higher Ed Dive)

Until next time, Cheers — Jeff??

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