??The most painful trade in markets

Forget the shutdowns, student loans, strikes, and political shenanigans.

Right now, investors’ biggest pain point is yields. Yes, even if you don’t own bonds.

The 10-year Treasury yield — the hurdle rate for how much return you should expect on stocks and other investments — has spiked to 4.8%, a 16-year high. People have responded by selling stocks, gold, and crypto and piling into cash. And that response has turned into a bit of a panic, with the S&P 500 down 8% and plenty of conspiracy theories making the rounds.?

When emotions are high, it’s best to sort facts from fiction.

And as your friendly neighborhood analyst, I’m here to help ease the pain.

The theories

There are a lot of conflicting theories out there about why yields keep rising. Some are encouraging — like strong growth. Others — like the deterioration of the US’ role as a global superpower – are more ominous.

Let’s talk through a few.

The economy is doing well. This still seems like the most plausible explanation, as I wrote in August. Yields tend to increase this fast when the economy is stronger than most expect, and we know from recent data that this may be the case. Heck, even the Atlanta Fed’s GDP forecast thinks the economy is growing at a 5% annualized clip this quarter.

There’s too much US debt out there. This is the simplest theory: Maybe there just aren’t enough people willing to buy the amount of US debt that’s up for the taking. Sounds like a cop-out, but I think there’s something to it. The US Treasury issued more debt during the third quarter of 2023 than any other quarter since 2000 (excluding the COVID stimulus check days). And while people can’t seem to get enough of high-yielding instruments, the supply of Treasuries is clearly outstripping fervent demand.

The US is losing its status as a global superpower. Countries such as China and Japan have eased up on Treasury purchases, at least according to the Treasury’s own data. They’ve done so for a few reasons, but one often-cited theory is that China is cutting its dependence on dollar-based assets.

The dangers

Rising yields aren’t easily explained by one theory. But no matter how you try to rationalize them, they’re clearly causing angst for the economy and your portfolio. Interest rates are the foundation for how we interpret risk. If rates are too high, people and businesses could stop spending or find themselves in precarious financial situations.

It may already be happening, too. 30-year mortgage rates are climbing towards 8%, and bank lending conditions are tightening up quickly. Yields haven’t derailed the economy yet, but as they climb, the chances of something breaking can increase. That important thing could be the job market, consumer spending, or company profits.

Higher yields have also enticed people into cash — and consequently, out of the stock market. When money markets and savings accounts are paying close to 5% as stock prices fall, you’re forced to make tough decisions with your money.

The opportunities

I wouldn’t be a true analyst without balancing the pros and cons, though. And believe it or not, there may be some purpose in the pain, if you’re looking for it.

For this section, I’m going to tap in our resident options analyst, Bret Kenwell .

Here's what Bret had to say:

The 10-year yield is threatening a move into the 5% range. Not only is the 5% level a key area on the chart, but it’s also a round number that could be psychologically important.?

The S&P 500 has its own psychological catalysts at play as it moves into the 4,100 to 4,200 zone, as it would mark a 10% correction off the year-to-date high. It’s also where the index’s 200-day moving average sits, plus prior resistance from the first six months of the year. And in the options market, we’re seeing put option positions grow between 4,150 to 4,200. Things could get dicey below this zone, but investors are hoping these hedges help add a layer of support for the S&P 500.?

Together, traders are hopeful that the upside in 10-year yields is capped near 5%, while the downside in the S&P 500 is limited to the 4,100 to 4,200 range. If these areas hold, we could see stocks and bonds reverse trend.?

Selloffs can be painful, but they can also unearth opportunities.?

And as yields have pushed higher and the stock market has been under pressure, not all stocks and sectors have been treated fairly.?

For instance, dividend stocks, utility stocks, and REITs have been under immense pressure — even the highest quality names. It makes sense — dividends are less attractive when you can make a decent yield in cash. But if yields fall, these groups could get a boost.?

Also, think about more rate-sensitive pockets, like tech and small caps. They’ve been hit a bit harder than the S&P 500 from the fear that higher borrowing costs will weigh on profits. If that pressure dissipates, these stocks could see relief as well.?

So what does this mean for me?

This environment is painful, no doubt about it. But you can take some comfort in the fact that yields — like many conditions in markets — tend to move in cycles.

For now, understand your timeframe and ability to take on risk. And remember that yield levels don’t dictate where markets go over long periods of time — earnings and the economy do.

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*Data sourced through Bloomberg. Can be made available upon request