The most interesting things I read in February

It’s defense, stupid!

In moments like these I do thank my past self that I did not set out to write this newsletter weekly, otherwise I’d have drowned in the number of publications to recommend - most of which, however, would have been newsy and of short-term value. If you remember my previous newsletter, you know the main aim of this piece of writing is quite the opposite. I seek to go beyond daily headlines that are purely informative and lose relevance right after they are consumed. Do not get me wrong, dispatches about Portuguese parliamentary elections (one to watch tonight as voting is now underway) or Boris Johnson going on an unauthorized mission to Venezuela to negotiate God-only-knows-what-really with Nicolas Maduro have their role and place in the media ecosystem, but I consume them on the spot, and really - most people don’t have to. There are, however, major processes - not events - that we should all have a basic understanding of, especially here: in Poland, in Europe.?

Defense dominated headlines and, as a consequence, my personal media diet over the last month, not just because everybody is really writing about it, but mostly because there have been some pieces of utmost importance. We have been through a lot in February: the death of Aleksiej Navalny, equally saddening and expected, the moral panic during the Munich Security Conference, the effective conclusion of both American primaries (hey, contrarians, Dean Phillips is out of the Democratic race, where are you now?), the warning from Estonia’s PM Kaja Kallas, that the question over the Russian incursion into NATO territory is not an ?if” but a ?when” one, and the sloppiness of the Luftwaffe effectively revealing French and British military presence in Ukraine. All this shows beyond a shred of doubt that Europe needs to step up its defense game. Not just with regard to helping Ukraine, but mostly - to be able to help itself.?

Piotr Buras rightly points out in POLITYKA that this is a truly paradoxical moment. On the one hand, there seems to be a growing consensus among European nations that Putin might really be eager sometime soon to try his luck with NATO forces. But, on the other hand, this consensus translates into very little actionable decision-making and a lot of fear - mostly concerning the outcome of US elections. Buras, however, remains hopeful, because the will seems to be there, the question remains over readiness. But not to produce more, but to shift our collective European economy much more towards war mode. Over the last month, I’ve been asked many times how likely in my opinion a Russian invasion really is. But, like, really really. In a true True-Detective-Jodie-Foster fashion, my answer is that you’re asking the wrong question. The question is not ?if he attacks” but ?will we be ready if he does”.?

Poland, most likely, will not. At least it would not be ready now. Marek Rabij in this piece in Tygodnik Powszechny provides a sober assessment of the state of the Polish military’s headcount. The result? We’re massive short of people, not just those in uniform. People that would be, generally speaking, capable to make right decisions in the event of an attack. The Polish government is projected to spend close to 4.2 per cent of Poland’s GDP on defence this year - a noble thing, one to brag about (and Sikorski does so all the time). But it also wants to have a 300,000-strong army by 2030, which means it would have to be recruiting at a pace of 11,000 people per year. It’s nowhere near this level now. But Rabij is right to say this is not the only gap we have. We’re missing a strong link between professional military and a resilient civil society, made up of people ?knowing where the shelters are and how to communicate with their family if internet and GSM connections went down”. These are not super challenging tasks to accomplish and would not take conscription to be reintroduced to make a difference. The latter, Rabij concludes, is unlikely anyway, 41 per cent of Poles ?categorically oppose that”.

A solution to Europe’s armament shortage is quite obvious - production need to accelerate and purchases need to be coordinated. What appeared to be a mirage-like speculation a month ago now is almost certain: should the Von der Leyen/EPP team continue to command in Brussels after the June elections, a new portfolio in the European Commission, that of Defence Commissioner, will be established. Euractiv has a detailed description of the proposed role. In short, the Commissioner would be tasked with overseeing the 27 defense industries of the member states and improve the efficiency of defense spending. So: pragmatism and management, not strategy. Rumour has it (also that coming from Chobielin and al. Szucha) that Polish MFA Radek Sikorski both wants the job and the job wants him. Bartek Wieliński, interestingly, argued in his editorial that Sikorski should not take the job, because it will actually be one of no account. For Wieliński it is obvious that ?European Commissioners are rarely appointed out of first-tier politicians and Sikorski is one” and that he could be much more effective at home. Should he really want to go to Brussels, a different portfolio is the one he should be after: that of EU enlargement. Full disclosure: I don’t agree with Bartek on this one, European Commissioners often become A-listers in the process, see the case of Margrethe Vestager, a rather unknown deputy PM of Denmark who evolved to be the corporation slayer in chief of the European Union. And, most of all, having a Polish politician overseeing the likes of Rheinmetall would really be an interesting situation - and evidence that Poland under the Tusk-Sikorski tandem is really a major player in European foreign and defence policy now.

Outside of Polish media, the focus is really on Trump and what his potential comeback would really mean for the world: but now the worries are real and omnipresent. Evan Osnos reviewed pretty much everything that the Democratic Party has to offer right now in this stunning New Yorker Piece. Spoiler: it is not much. Osnos seems to have interviewed almost every major figure from Obama times, including the former head of speechwriting and comms, David Axelrod, who was reportedly called ?a prick” by Biden on an occasion of an internal criticism. It’s no secret anymore - as if it ever was, actually. Biden was never meant to run in 2024, Osnos makes this one thing very clear. But he is, and that’s the race now. Which says much more about the Democratic Party’s quality of younger politicians than about Biden himself. Well, considering that almost everybody there is younger than Biden - it really, really stinks.

Oh, and before I forget - John Kerry is back. He is 80 years old. And he is quitting the job of US Climate Envoy…to help on Biden’s campaign. They really are out of options.?

But Kerry is really now an encyclopedia of climate diplomacy and his interview to NYT’s Davide Wallace-Wells is a thing of beauty, especially when he admits to a kind of schizophrenic mood in the climate movement: we have moved extraordinarily, to be honest with you, but not yet at scale fast enough and not yet with the fervency needed. A shoulder pat for a consolation prize, if not worse.?

Vera Bergengruen from TIME Magazine went to Kiev to narrate the story of Palantir making the war in Ukraine ?the first AI war”. The headline is massively sensationalized, but move beyond it: it is really a story about the company more than the state of the frontlines, and that’s only for the better. I have a number of friends (some of them subscribe to this newsletter, and you really know who you are) who work in AI and even they, when asked ?what Palantir actually does”, come back with semi-serious answers like ?software for CIA”. That might be true. But I am curious to know why, how, when. Send tips.

Richard Brody bashes The Zone of Interest in his New Yorker review (Oscars are tonight folks!). Private Equity funds are well on their way to transform childcare and education into a cash cow in the US and that is a phenomenal piece by Adam Harris in The Atlantic. FT’s Henry Mance talks to James Shotter about who could replace Netanyahu and Monocle has this amazing commentary by Des Fitzgerald on the history of urban parks.?

In further reading, book-size instead of magazine feature - two things stood out. Marcin Kydryński arbitrarily announced February to be ?the month of reading diaries” - so I picked one up. John Steinbeck’s diary from his 1947 journey to the Soviet Union together with the iconic photographer, Robert Capa, is a great, raw, pointy account of life in Russia and Ukraine in the immediate aftermath of WWII. Steinbeck does not repeat himself often, but he constantly points out that in the USSR, young people did not smile. A detail, but a self-explanatory one.

In fiction, Paulina Ma?ochleb recommended Hunger by Jamal Ouariachi, a novel running in parallel between 1956, 1984 and present day. Post-colonialism, European urban self-righteous middle class, an old love affairs, and a handful of controversies, all set against the turbulent XX century and first decades of the XXI. One of the best pieces of fiction I’ve got my hands on in a long, long while. See you in April!?