The Most Important Statistic in the 2024 Election, and the role of Paid vs. Earned Media

The most telling way to look at the 2024 election is the shift toward Donald Trump by state. Swing states had negligible shifts, none by more than 2 points to the right, most by 1 point or even 0 points. The rest of the country, on the other hand, shifted strongly to the right, by double digits in Florida, New York, and California. There was a clear red shift nationally, but least so in swing states.

What does that tell us? First, it says that where the electorate was exposed to the Democrats’ messaging, a red wave was averted. Democrats spent over $1B on ads in swing states, mostly ignoring the other states where the result was pre-determined. The muted red shift solely in those states suggests the messaging worked.

Second, it shows this election wasn’t won with paid media. It was won with something else, which occurred in every state, not just swing states. It was won with earned media, i.e. free influencer marketing. That was the Trump campaign’s focus, with his relentless pursuit of time with podcast hosts and social media influencers, and it worked wonders. Even though the Trump campaign spent far less, it was more effective at spreading its message.

So why did Democrats lose the earned media game? There are two clear reasons, and one is the cause and the other is the effect, though I’m not sure which is which. The first is because Democrats didn’t prioritize it. The second is because Kamala Harris was running a campaign that was so focused on staying on message, that earned media wasn’t a good fit for it.

Earned media requires being able to shoot off the cuff, field unexpected questions, come off as genuine, and be willing to go off script. Kamala Harris did none of those things. That’s not to say she couldn’t, that she doesn’t have the ability. She might, I don’t know. But the fact is the campaign chose to stay on message and stick to a tight script. You can’t do that if you’re focused on earned media.

That’s also not to say Trump is genuine. But he comes off as genuine to those exposed to his earned media rounds, and that’s critical for earned media to work as a messaging tactic. His willingness to shoot off the cuff and veer off script are critical to his ability to come off as genuine.

So how to Democrats move forward? First, the reality is our next candidate needs to be someone who is happily willing and able to portray genuineness by being spontaneous and visiting what can be unpredictable and even unfriendly environments.?

Second, the priority of the next Democratic national campaign needs to be to compete or win at the earned media game, not just spend money on paid ads. But that’s easier said than done. So much alternative media has a right slant, with big names like Joe Rogan, Lex Fridman, and David Sachs’s “All In” podcast just a few examples. Democrats may need to take some of those funds historically spent on paid ads, and use them instead to fund the creation or development of left-leaning alternative media properties and environments, so that in future campaigns, the opportunity is available to tap into influencers to spread the Democrats’ message.

One key to earned media success will be to have a message that has viral potential. This cycle, Democrats were so focused in their message of the downside of Trump himself, and the electorate clearly doesn’t care enough. So that’s over. As Nancy Pelosi put it in her interview with the NY Times this week: “It’s no use going into his personal situation. The public has ignored that or enough of them have. So that’s that. Let’s just move on. But we are going to show the difference.” In other words, Democrats need to put to rest how bad a person Trump is, and focus instead on how his policies make the average American working household worse off, and how he didn’t fulfill his promises to these families.

That’s a message that can most effectively be presented on earned media by a candidate incredibly adept at going off-script and appearing genuine.