The most important lesson my career has taught me about forecasting

I’ve been on a couple of different sides of the forecasting predicament; producing and managing forecasts, and training others how to use the forecasting software that I’ve sold. Thankfully I’ve never had to rely on other people’s forecasts. 

Those of us whose lives are touched by forecasts have an inclination to spout truisms about the guaranteed imprecision of our projections. “Some items just can’t be forecast.” “The forecasts will always be wrong.” The heads in the room always nod.  In all likelihood you just nodded involuntarily.  

The most important lesson my career has taught me is that a forecaster’s most important responsibility is to manage others' expectations. 

As a sales/marketing/writing person I’m always interested in finding new and meaningful ways to provide the appropriate perspective for the forecasting process, especially when it comes to managing expectations. 

Several weeks ago, electronic and print news sources exploded with a variety of concise quotes from a prolific writer.   My absolute favorite is: 

“Tomorrow is never what it’s supposed to be.”* 

Bob Dylan deserves his Nobel Prize in Literature.

* from the song "Don't Fall Apart On Me Tonight"