On the most ambitious on-demand autonomous shuttle project launched in Europe so far

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Hamburg's pioneering venture into?on-demand autonomous shuttle technology?stands as a significant leap in urban mobility. For four years, residents have leveraged an app to summon minibuses, a service set to be further bolstered by driverless shuttles, with a goal to support the existing public transport system and enable the realization of the "Hamburg clock." This initiative aims to?ensure citizens access local public transport within a five-minute window. According to plans,?the?first shuttles in Hamburg are scheduled to run autonomously in Hamburg as early as 2024. The first passengers will be transported with it from 2025.?Up to 10,000 vehicles could be in operation by 2030. The initiative in Hamburg aligns with?McKinsey's forecast?of asubstantial market value pool of $300 billion to $400 billionacross core AD (Autonomous Driving) use cases. Additionally, consumer spending in on-demand mobility is projected to grow by €500 billion by 2030. Such estimates reflect the immense economic potential driving advancements in this domain. Germany is quite active in this segment, with?Deutsche Bahn planning to transport 200 million passengers per year with on-demand transportation by 2030.

Scheduled to begin autonomous operations in 2024 and transport passengers from 2025, Hamburg's initial foray into this technology showcases a major step in transit innovation. On a global scale, there are approximately?700 predominantly driver-operated ride-hailing services, highlighting the rapid expansion and diversity within the on-demand mobility sector. Ridepooling, an integral part of on-demand mobility, synergizes with public transportation through multimodal usage patterns, presenting a more appealing option for public transit users, thereby enhancing the efficiency and attractiveness of public transportation systems. Recent regulatory actions, such as the?suspension of a San Francisco robotaxi service for safety reasons, highlight the?challenges and scrutiny within the deployment of advanced AV technologies. This underscores the complexities and uncertainties involved in integrating such technologies into urban transportation.?

A?study published?in 2020emphasizes the inefficiency of private vehicles, which spend a significant portion of their time idle (private vehicles in Germany average operating time is only 46 minutes per day). Authors expect that autonomous vehicles will enter service within the next decades. And, concerning Autonomous Mobility on Demand (AMoD), highlight: “Mobility solution providers need to anticipate this in their strategic planning, cities need to plan and build new infrastructure. Governments have to provide both a suitable legal framework and social security. Vehicle manufacturers will have to develop completely new vehicle concepts. The concept of AMoD is a?disruptive change?compared to conventional vehicle concepts and there is no clear path to determine “the right technology”. Contemporary developments towards AMoD vehicles lack systematic consideration of these uncertainties. Apparently, this technology holds both high potentials and high risks. Especially the high uncertainties about usage profiles and actual operator and customer requirements open up a wide range of potential vehicle concepts”.

?? Things we enjoyed reading

• Funny videos about “uncultured” passengers in Prague’s transit - Prague Integrated Transport has taken an unconventional approach to remind passengers about polite behavior in public transport. Keep reading on Prague Morning
• Cars are canceling San Diego's progress on renewable energy - San Diego has made enormous strides toward getting more of its electricity from renewable sources such as wind and solar in recent years. But according to the city's latest inventory of greenhouse gas emissions Keep reading on KBPS
• How cities can decarbonize delivery in the era of online orders - A new National League of Cities action guide points to emerging policies and technologies to combat increasing air pollution, greenhouse gas emissions and traffic congestion. Keep reading on Smart Cities Dive
• Our children are victims of road violence. We need to talk about it - The deaths and injuries caused by car drivers are an everyday occurrence. This road violence has become normalised. We take it for granted as the price we have to pay to use our cars. Keep reading on The Conversation
• How mobility budgets can change the future of transportationA mobility budget is an employee benefit that can help employers attract and retain talent. It’s also an emerging solution to increase sustainable transit... Keep reading on? McKinsey website

?? Time for a quote

The speed at which emissions decline will hinge in large part on our ability to finance sustainable solutions to meet rising energy demand from the world’s fast growing economies. This all points to the vital importance of redoubling collaboration and cooperation, not retreating from them

Fatih Birol, Executive Director, International Energy Agency (IEA)

?? What about a chart?