Moscow’s security measures still in place after Wagner mutiny
The authorities said a day off work introduced to curb movement around Moscow on Monday would remain in place for security reasons. PHOTO: REUTERS

Moscow’s security measures still in place after Wagner mutiny

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MOSCOW?- An “anti-terrorist operation regime” was still in force in Moscow on Sunday, a day after?mutinous Wagner mercenaries ?threatened to storm the Russian capital, in a dramatic security crisis for President Vladimir Putin.

The Kremlin announced on Saturday that?Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin,? who led the rebellion, will be sent to Belarus after mediation by Minsk leader Alexander Lukashenko.

Prigozhin’s whereabouts were unknown on Sunday, but Moscow said?the “armed rebellion” charges against him will be dropped ?and his fighters will also not be prosecuted.

Prigozhin, who was updating the public on Wagner’s mutiny via audio messages on Telegram on Saturday, had not yet said when he will leave his country for Kremlin-allied Belarus.

The anti-terrorist regime was introduced in Moscow on Saturday, as Prigozhin’s forces appeared to advance on the capital, with the authorities asking residents to limit travel.

The Moscow authorities also said that a day off work introduced to curb movement around the city on Monday would remain in place for security reasons.

In the southern city of Rostov-on-Don, which Wagner fighters left late on Saturday after taking the main army headquarters there, traffic resumed as normal, Russian state media reported.

It showed workers clearing the streets outside the military headquarters and outside the local circus gates, where a tank had got stuck the day before.

The authorities in the Kaluga region, south of Moscow, said on Saturday they were starting to lift road restrictions introduced to stop the Wagner rebellion.

In the southern city of Voronezh, where the army said it was leading “combat” a day earlier, emergency services they put out a huge fire at an oil depot that burned during the mutiny.

The authorities had not explained the cause of the fire, with images on social media showing a large black cloud of smoke. Some Russian media reported there was a helicopter nearby before an explosion in the area. AFP

(60) Wagner mutiny: Rebel mercenaries turn back short of Moscow - YouTube

Moscow’s security measures still in place after Wagner mutiny | The Straits Times

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WAGNER CHIEF TO LEAVE RUSSIA IN DEAL TO EASE CRISIS

"Given Wagner's presence overseas, the greatest effects from this event may be felt in MENA/Africa, where Wagner has a large presence."

Within hours of Prigozhin's about-face, the Kremlin announced he would leave for Belarus and Russia would not prosecute him. It was a dramatic day with Putin warning against civil war, Moscow telling locals to stay off the streets and Kyiv revelling in the chaos engulfing its enemy.

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A video grab taken from handout footage posted on June 24, 2023 on the Telegram account of the press service of Concord - a company linked to the chief of Russian mercenary group Wagner, Yevgeny Prigozhin shows him speaking inside the headquarters of the Russian southern military district in the city of Rostov-on-Don. Handout / TELEGRAM/ @concordgroup_official / AFP

AFP ?|?25 June 2023 11:24

MOSCOW - The chief of the rebel Wagner mercenary force will go to Belarus and will not face charges after calling off his troops' advance on Moscow, the Russian government said, easing the country's most serious security crisis in decades.

The feud between Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin and Russia's military brass came to a violent head in the past day, with his forces capturing a key army headquarters in southern Russia on Saturday and then heading north to threaten the capital.

Within hours of Prigozhin's about-face, the Kremlin announced he would leave for Belarus and Russia would not prosecute him or Wagner's members.

It had been a dramatic day, with President Vladimir Putin warning against civil war, Moscow telling locals to stay off the streets and Kyiv revelling in the chaos engulfing its enemy.

The tide shifted suddenly when Prigozhin made the stunning announcement that his troops were "turning our columns around and going back to field camps" to avoid bloodshed in the Russian capital.

Prigozhin, who has feuded bitterly with Moscow's military leadership even as his outfit led parts of Russia's Ukraine offensive, said he understood the importance of the moment and did not want to "spill Russian blood".

WAGNER TROOPS CHEERED

By early Sunday, Wagner had pulled fighters and equipment from Rostov-on-Don, where they had seized the military headquarters, said the regional governor.

But before they left, dozens of residents were cheering and chanting "Wagner! Wagner!" outside the military headquarters they had captured.

Authorities in the southern Lipetsk region announced the lifting of restrictions after earlier reporting Wagner fighters in their territory, where the local capital is 420 kilometres (260 miles) south of Moscow.

Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko said he had negotiated a truce with Prigozhin, drawing thanks from Moscow.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov later told reporters that the "criminal case against him (Prigozhin) will be dropped. He himself will go to Belarus."

Peskov also said that members of Wagner who had taken part in what authorities termed an "armed rebellion" would not be prosecuted.

"Avoiding bloodshed, internal confrontation, and clashes with unpredictable results was the highest goal," Peskov added.

In Ukraine, government officials said the situation had "humiliated" Putin.

"Prigozhin humiliated Putin/the state and showed that there is no longer a monopoly on violence," presidential aide Mykhailo Podolyak said on Twitter.

While Russia claimed the rebellion had no impact on its Ukraine campaign, Kyiv said the unrest offered a "window of opportunity" as the nation pressed its long-awaited counter-offensive.

Analysts said there were likely to be consequences for Prigozhin and Wagner.

"There has to be, otherwise the message is that a military force can openly challenge the state, and others have to learn that the Russian state indeed has a monopoly on violence inside the country," Samuel Bendett, a researcher at the Center for Naval Analyses, tweeted.

Rob Lee, a senior fellow at the US-based Foreign Policy Research Institute, said cooperation between Wagner and the Russian military was likely to suffer.

"Putin and the security services will likely try to weaken Wagner or remove Prigozhin," Lee tweeted.

"Given Wagner's presence overseas, the greatest effects from this event may be felt in MENA/Africa", where Wagner has a large presence.


'EARLY SIGNS OF REVOLT'

While the Kremlin appeared to have been caught on the back foot, US spy agencies picked up signs days ago that Prigozhin was planning to act, US media reported.

They began tracking indications that Prigozhin and his mercenary force intended to move against the military leadership in mid-June, the Washington Post said, adding US spy agencies believed Putin was informed the Wagner chief was plotting his rebellion at least a day before it happened.

The United States and its allies publicly stayed on the sidelines as officials waited to see how the revolt would play out.

US President Joe Biden spoke with the leaders of France, Germany and Britain amid concerns that Putin's control over the nuclear-armed country could be slipping.

Moscow issued a stiff warning to the United States and allies to stay back.

"The rebellion plays into the hands of Russia's external enemies," the foreign ministry said.

Before Prigozhin's climbdown, Russian regular forces had launched what one regional governor called a "counter-terrorist operation" to halt the Wagner advance northwards up a main highway towards Moscow.

In the capital, the mayor urged Muscovites to stay indoors and declared Monday a day off work.

Security was tightened in the city centre, with armed men in flak jackets guarding the parliament building and Red Square closed off to the public.

"I don't know how to react. In any case it's very sad this is happening," 35-year-old Yelena told AFP, declining to give her last name.

All road traffic restrictions that had been imposed in Rostov, Lipetsk and other regions during the crisis have been lifted, state-run TASS reported, citing the federal road agency.

The measures came after Prigozhin announced his troops had taken control of the military command centre and airbase in the southern city of Rostov-on-Don, the nerve centre of Russia's offensive in Ukraine.

'A BLOW TO RUSSIA'

Responding to the challenge in a televised address, Putin accused Prigozhin of a "stab in the back" that posed a threat to Russia's very survival.

"Any internal turmoil is a deadly threat to our statehood and to us as a nation. This is a blow to Russia and to our people," Putin said, demanding national unity.

"Extravagant ambitions and personal interests led to treason," Putin said, referring to Prigozhin, who began building his power base as a catering contractor.

As the insurrection force headed north through Voronezh and Lipetsk towards Moscow, the capital's mayor announced that "anti-terrorist" measures were being taken.

Critical facilities were "under reinforced protection", TASS reported, citing a law enforcement source.

While Prigozhin's outfit fought at the forefront of Russia's offensive in Ukraine, he repeatedly blamed Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu and Valery Gerasimov, chief of the general staff, for his fighters' deaths.

Wagner chief to leave Russia in deal to ease crisis (ewn.co.za)

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Secretary Antony J. Blinken With Margaret Brennan of CBS Face the Nation - INTERVIEW

JUNE 25, 2023

QUESTION:??Secretary of State Antony Blinken is one of the many top Biden administration officials who’s been monitoring the events of the last two days, and he joins us from the State Department.?Good morning to you, Mr. Secretary.

SECRETARY BLINKEN:?Good morning, Margaret.

QUESTION:?Can you tell us who in the Biden administration has been in touch with Russian leadership?

SECRETARY BLINKEN:?Well, I instructed my own team at the President’s behest to engage with the Russians, first and foremost to make sure that they understood their responsibilities in terms of protecting our own personnel, ensuring their safety and well-being, as well as any American citizens in Russia.?So a number of people have engaged to make sure that the Russians got that message.

QUESTION:?Is the U.S. ready for further unrest in Russia and the scenario that Vladimir Putin does not remain in power?

SECRETARY BLINKEN:?Margaret, this is an unfolding story and I think we’re in the midst of a moving picture.?We haven’t seen – we haven’t seen the last act.?We’re watching it very closely and carefully.

But just step back for a second and put this in context.?Sixteen months ago Russian forces were on the doorstep of Kyiv in Ukraine thinking they’d take the city in a matter of days, thinking they would erase Ukraine from the map as an independent country.?Now, over this weekend, they’ve had to defend Moscow, Russia’s capital, against mercenaries of Putin’s own making.?Prigozhin himself in this entire incident has raised profound questions about the very premises for Russia’s aggression against Ukraine in the first place, saying that Ukraine or NATO did not pose a threat to Russia, which is part of Putin’s narrative.

QUESTION:?Right.

SECRETARY BLINKEN:?And it was a direct challenge to Putin’s authority.?So this raises profound questions.?It shows real cracks.?We can’t speculate or know exactly where that’s going to go.?We do know that Putin has a lot more to answer for in the weeks and months ahead.

QUESTION:?But is the U.S. prepared for the potential of the fall of the Putin government, and is their nuclear stockpile – the largest in the world – secure?

SECRETARY BLINKEN:?We always prepare for every contingency.?In terms of what happens in Russia, it’s an internal matter for the Russians to figure out.?Of course, when we’re dealing with a major power and especially a major power that has nuclear weapons, that’s something that’s of concern.?It’s something we’re very focused on.?We haven’t seen any change in Russia’s nuclear posture.?There hasn’t been any change in ours.?But it’s something that we’re going to watch very, very carefully.

QUESTION:?Vladimir Putin is appearing on television this morning, but it appears to have been prerecorded.?Do you know the whereabouts of Vladimir Putin right now??Is he in Moscow?

SECRETARY BLINKEN:?I don’t want to – I don’t want to speculate on that or what information that we have.?Again, we’re watching that carefully.

I think one of the things this tells you is that we still don’t – don’t have finality in terms of what was actually agreed between Prigozhin and Putin.?I suspect that we’re going to learn more in the days and weeks ahead about what deal they struck.?The President brought together not only the national security cabinet yesterday, he brought together the leaders of our key allies and partners.?He instructed all of us to do the same.?We have tremendous unity of purpose and unity of action when it comes to supporting Ukraine, and that’s where our focus is.

QUESTION:?But as you just said, Prigozhin drew into question the very premise for Vladimir Putin’s war, so —

SECRETARY BLINKEN:?That’s right.

QUESTION:?So do the Wagner fighters return to the fight in Ukraine??Do we know?

SECRETARY BLINKEN:?Too soon to tell what’s going to happen to the Wagner forces, whether they go back to the fight.?I mean, it was extraordinary that they were moving out of Ukraine and into Russia.?But it’s too soon to tell whether they’re going to go back into the fight as Wagner, whether they get integrated into regular Russian forces, what this means for Wagner in other parts of the world.?I mean, keep in mind —

QUESTION:?Yeah.

SECRETARY BLINKEN:?— both Putin and Prigozhin are responsible for committing terrible acts in Ukraine against Ukrainian civilians.?But also in the case of Wagner, in country after country in Africa, wherever Wagner is, death and destruction and exploitation follow.

QUESTION:?Yes.

SECRETARY BLINKEN:?But all of this is likely to unroll in the coming days, in the coming weeks.?To the extent that it presents a real distraction for Putin and for Russian authorities that they have to look at – sort of mind their rear even as they’re trying to deal with the counteroffensive in Ukraine, I think that creates even greater openings for the Ukrainians to do well on the ground.

QUESTION:?Well, as you just indicated, Yevgeny Prigozhin has a footprint that goes from Africa to Syria to Ukraine.?Do you have any idea where he is right now?

SECRETARY BLINKEN:?I can’t get into what we know or don’t know through intelligence.?It’s something that we’re looking at and that we’re tracking.

QUESTION:?One of the things Prigozhin did was directly undermine the Russian military leadership.?Do we know who is in charge of the Russian military right now, and how could Vladimir Putin agree to any changes in the leadership of his military and still look like he’s in charge?

SECRETARY BLINKEN:?Those are great questions, and I think we’ll get the answers in the days and weeks ahead.?It’s too soon to say with any – any certainty what the final chapter in this particular book is going to be.?The rising storm of Prigozhin inside of Russia is something that many people have seen over months now:?direct challenges to the leadership – to the military leadership; powerful criticism of Russia’s conduct of its aggression against Ukraine; and now questioning the very premises of the war, Prigozhin himself saying that Ukraine and NATO did not pose a threat to Russia, which has, as you know, been part of Putin’s narrative.

QUESTION:?Right.

SECRETARY BLINKEN:?These create more cracks in the Russian fa?ade, and those cracks were already profound.?Economically, militarily, its standing in the world – all of those things have been dramatically diminished by Putin’s aggression against Ukraine.?He’s managed to bring Europe together.?He’s managed to bring NATO together.?He’s managed to get Europe to move off of Russian energy.?He’s managed to alienate Ukrainians and unite Ukraine at the same time.?So across the board this has been a strategic failure.?Now you introduce into that profound internal divisions, and there are lots of questions he’s going to have to answer in the weeks ahead.

QUESTION:?Is there a possibility of civil war?

SECRETARY BLINKEN:?I don’t want to speculate on that.?These are fundamentally internal matters for the Russians to figure out.?It’s not our place to do that.

QUESTION:?Will President Biden reach out directly to Vladimir Putin??Has the CIA director reached out to Russian intelligence?

SECRETARY BLINKEN:?Margaret, I’m not going to get into any diplomatic contacts that we may have or have had.?I can tell you that on my instruction, on the President’s instruction, we had some engagement with the Russians over the weekend to make sure they understood their responsibilities when it comes to looking out for the safety and security of our personnel in Russia – very important that we do that and we did that.

QUESTION:?I want to ask you about Beijing.?I was there with you earlier this week and I listened to you pick every single one of your words very carefully.?And then on our way home, President Biden called Xi Jinping a dictator with economic problems who didn’t know what his own military was doing by flying the spy balloon over the United States.?How much did that hurt the work you did?

SECRETARY BLINKEN:?Margaret, one of the things that I think you heard me say during the trip and after the trip is that the main purpose was to bring some greater stability to the relationship.?But one of the things that I said to Chinese counterparts during this trip was that we are going to continue to do things and say things that you don’t like, just as you’re no doubt going to continue to do and say things that we don’t like.?And if you look at what comes out of the Chinese foreign ministry on a daily basis, you’ll hear that.

QUESTION:?Are you saying that was a strategic remark?

SECRETARY BLINKEN:?The President always speaks candidly, he speaks directly, he speaks clearly, and he speaks for all of us.

QUESTION:?You also said that Chinese officials assured you they won’t provide lethal assistance to Russia but that Chinese companies are.?According to U.S. Treasury, Chinese companies have also done business with the Wagner Group.?Have you reached out to the Chinese about trying to gauge what is happening on the ground inside Russia now?

SECRETARY BLINKEN:?Again, I can’t get into any diplomatic contacts that we may or may not have had.?But you’re exactly right that when it comes to the visit, the Chinese did reiterate to us as well as to many other countries that they have not and will not provide lethal military assistance to Russia for use in Ukraine.?I also raised the concerns that you said about Chinese companies providing that kind of support and pressed them to be vigilant about that.?I’m sure they’re making their own assessments about what’s happened inside of Russia in recent days.

QUESTION:?Secretary Blinken, thank you for your time this morning.

SECRETARY BLINKEN:?Thanks, Margaret.?Good to be with you.

Secretary Antony J. Blinken With Margaret Brennan of CBS Face the Nation - United States Department of State

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Prigoschins Aufstand nimmt ein vorl?ufiges Ende – der Wagner-Chef führte Putins Schw?chen vor

Die überraschende Wende in der Revolte der russischen Wagner-Paramilit?rs verhinderte eine blutige Konfrontation. Die Ereignisse sind trotzdem ein dramatisches Zeichen.

von Markus Ackeret, Moskau - 25.06.2023, 08.20 Uhr

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Ein offenbar gutgelaunter Jewgeni Prigoschin verl?sst am Samstagabend Rostow am Don. Alexander Ermochenko / Reuters

Als am sp?ten Samstagabend Jewgeni Prigoschin, der Chef der paramilit?rischen Gruppe Wagner, in einem schwarzen Gel?ndewagen das Hauptquartier des südlichen Milit?rbezirks in Rostow am Don verl?sst, brandet Applaus auf. Schaulustige johlen, wollen ihm durchs Autofenster die Hand geben. Die Videos von dieser Szene zeigen Prigoschin nur ganz kurz, wie er die Umstehenden grüsst. Dann braust das Auto davon.

In den Stunden zuvor waren bereits Prigoschins Leute mit ihren Panzern und anderen Milit?rfahrzeugen aus der südrussischen Millionenstadt abgezogen. Der Wagner-Milit?rkonvoi, der sich angeblich bis auf 200 Kilometer Moskau gen?hert hatte, drehte um. Die Beh?rden der russischen Regionen zwischen Rostow und der Hauptstadt hoben nach und nach Strassensperren und andere Einschr?nkungen auf. Der ganz grosse Showdown schien abgewendet, die Vernunft hatte gesiegt.

In den 24 Stunden zwischen Prigoschins Ankündigung, Vergeltung an der Milit?rführung zu nehmen, und dem Verlassen des immerhin von ihm und seiner Truppe friedlich eingenommenen Verwaltungsgeb?udes liess eigentlich nichts auf ein solches Ende des Aufstandes schliessen: Immerhin hatte Pr?sident Wladimir Putin den R?delsführer Prigoschin noch am Vormittag des Verrats bezichtigt. Es ist ein Vorwurf, der für Putin eigentlich nur mit dem Tod geahndet werden kann.


Fernstrasse M4 zwischen Rostow am Don und Moskau (Distanz: Zirka 1100 Kilometer)

Russische Regionen, in denen Wagner-Truppen pr?sent waren

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Kartengrundlage: ? Openstreetmap, ? Maptiler 1 Zirka 6 Uhr: Wagner-Truppen kontrollieren Rostow am Don. 2 Zirka 9 Uhr: Bilder und Videos zeigen K?mpfe in Pawlowsk. 3 Zirka 10.30 Uhr: Ein Konvoi mit Wagner-K?mpfern wird in Woronesch gesichtet. 4 Zirka 19 Uhr: Der Gouverneur von Lipetsk best?tigt Wagner-Kolonnen in seiner Region. 5 Zirka 19.30 Uhr: Wagner-Chef Prigoschin gibt an, dass seine Truppen 200 Kilometer vor Moskau standen, nun aber umkehren werden. 6 Zirka 23.30 Uhr: Der Gouverneur von Rostow am Don erkl?rt, dass sich die Wagner-S?ldner aus der Stadt zurückgezogen haben. Stand: 25. 6. 2023, 0 Uhr. Alle Zeitangaben beziehen sich auf Ereignisse vom 24. Juni in mitteleurop?ischer Sommerzeit. Quelle: Osint-Recherchen der NZZ

Lukaschenkos Vermittlung

Die pl?tzliche Wendung an dem für Russland so dramatischen Tag brachte offenbar der weissrussische Machthaber Alexander Lukaschenko. Auf dessen pers?nliche Initiative hin, wie es der Kreml-Sprecher Dmitri Peskow am Samstagabend sagte, habe dieser mit Prigoschin, den er seit zwanzig Jahren kenne, Verhandlungen aufgenommen. Sie führten zu einem verblüffenden Ergebnis: Der bewaffnete Aufstand wurde beendet, die Wagner-Einheiten traten den Rückzug in ihre Feldlager an.


Prigoschin selbst geht straffrei aus und zieht sich nach Weissrussland quasi ins Exil zurück – das Strafverfahren wegen Organisation eines bewaffneten Aufstands werde eingestellt, sagte Peskow. Den an der Meuterei beteiligten K?mpfern drohen ebenfalls keine strafrechtlichen Konsequenzen.

Wagner-Angeh?rige, die nicht an dem Aufstand teilgenommen haben, k?nnen Vertr?ge mit dem Verteidigungsministerium abschliessen, wenn sie weiter in der Ukraine k?mpfen wollen. Das h?chste Ziel sei es gewesen, Blutvergiessen und interne Konfrontation zu verhindern; darauf seien alle Anstrengungen ausgerichtet gewesen, sagte Putins Sprecher. Prigoschin teilte bei der Best?tigung seines Einlenkens mit, aufseiten der Wagner-Einheiten sei kein Blut geflossen. Aber bei der weiteren Entwicklung w?re das nicht sicher gewesen. Man sei sich der Verantwortung bewusst.

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In Rostow am Don wird ein Kampfpanzer auf einen Lastwagen verladen: Am Samstagabend ziehen sich die Wagner-Einheiten aus der südrussischen Stadt zurück.

Prigoschin verliert seine Basis

Auf den ersten Blick sieht Prigoschin nach dem Verlierer aus. Seine Ziele erreichte er nicht. Weder wurde die milit?rische Führung abgesetzt, noch kann er die Gruppe Wagner im Krieg gegen die Ukraine als eigenst?ndige Kampfeinheit fortführen. Der von Verteidigungsminister Sergei Schoigu, seinem Hauptfeind, geforderten Unterwerfung unter die regul?re Armee hatte er sich vehement widersetzt.

Er selbst wird seiner eigentlichen – und einzigen, wie sich herausstellte – Machtbasis beraubt. In seiner Truppe und darüber hinaus erfreute er sich grosser Beliebtheit wegen seiner N?he zu den K?mpfern im Feld und seines Einstehens für die Belange der ?kleinen Soldaten? gegen die Schreibtischt?ter-Generalit?t. Aus seiner Position als durchaus erfolgreicher Feldherr war er überhaupt erst in die Rolle einer politischen Figur gekommen – bis im vergangenen Herbst hatte der schillernde Unternehmer mit lukrativen Staatsauftr?gen für die Armee die Publizit?t gescheut und seine Verbindungen zur Gruppe Wagner geleugnet.

In Weissrussland ist seine Zukunft v?llig ungekl?rt. Es ist kaum anzunehmen, dass er auf Dauer dort bleibt. Und auch wenn ihm Putin freies Geleit zugesichert haben soll, dürfte dieser den wohl ganz pers?nlich empfundenen Verrat nicht einfach vergessen haben. Das macht Prigoschins Leben nicht sicherer. Es ist auch fraglich, wie viel er unter diesen Umst?nden mit den lukrativen Aktivit?ten von Wagner in Afrika und im Nahen Osten noch zu tun haben wird.

Der Staat verliert die Kontrolle

Ein echter Sieger ist aber auch Putin nicht. Es war ihm offenkundig nicht gelungen, Prigoschin frühzeitig klarzumachen, was er sich erlauben kann und was nicht. Als es bis zum Aufstand kam, ben?tigte der Kreml 24 Stunden und die Hilfe Lukaschenkos – der stets als nicht ganz ernstzunehmende, von Moskau abh?ngige Figur dargestellt wird –, um das Land vor bürgerkriegs?hnlichen Wirren zu bewahren. Dazwischen rechnete Putin in seiner Fernsehansprache mit Prigoschin ab; sein eindeutiges Urteil über diesen steht weiter im Raum, aber er musste kleinlaut, und ohne sich nochmals dazu zu ?ussern, zurückkrebsen.

Vor allem aber liess er die Entwicklungen zu, die sich w?hrend zw?lf Stunden im südlichen Russland abspielten. Zwei Jahrzehnte lang –sp?testens seit dem Ende der Tschetschenienkriege – waren solche Szenen in Russland für unvorstellbar gehalten worden.

Pl?tzlich war es m?glich, dass eine aufst?ndische Milit?reinheit Schlüsselstellungen in einer Millionenstadt kontrolliert, ohne dass sich jemand dagegen wehrt.

Der Meuterer Prigoschin führte hohen Gener?len deren Ohnmacht vor Augen. Und die Einwohner von Rostow fügten sich widerstandslos. Als die Polizei nachts wieder die Kontrolle übernahm, erschollen ?Schande?-Rufe in den Strassen. Zugleich zirkulierten Bilder von Wartenden am Bahnhof, die aufgrund der Lage die Stadt verlassen wollten, um m?glichen K?mpfen zu entkommen.

Moskau macht sich auf das Schlimmste gefasst

In der russischen Hauptstadt blieb zwar – entgegen falschen Vorstellungen im Ausland – alles ruhig. Nur die Polizeipr?senz war etwas gr?sser als ohnehin. Selbst bei den wichtigsten staatlichen Geb?uden standen keine Schützenpanzer. Aber die traditionelle Feier der Schulabg?nger wurde abgesagt, und aus Sorge um die Sicherheit rief Bürgermeister Sergei Sobjanin für Montag einen arbeitsfreien Tag aus. An den Ausfallstrassen fuhren gepanzerte Fahrzeuge auf, Stellungen wurden ausgehoben. Moskau bereitete sich eindeutig auf die Ankunft der Wagner-Truppe vor. Die Bev?lkerung schien sich davon wenig beeindrucken zu lassen.

Unterwegs, vor allem in der Region Woronesch, wurde gek?mpft. Die Wagner-Einheiten schossen mehrere Armeehelikopter und Kampfflugzeuge ab, mehr als ein Dutzend regul?re Soldaten kamen nach Berichten von Telegram-Kan?len ums Leben. Der Kreml liess den Marsch Wagners auf Moskau zun?chst zu, um die eigentliche Machtprobe zu vermeiden.

Manche behaupten, es w?re, hart auf hart, nicht mehr so klar gewesen, wer die Oberhand behalten h?tte, weil der russischen Führung gar nicht so viele Truppen mehr zur Verfügung gestanden h?tten. Auch h?tten sich unweigerlich Fronten in der Gesellschaft vertieft, woran der Kreml kein Interesse haben kann.

So liess er aber den Eindruck zu, ein Aufstand sei m?glich, und die Institutionen h?tten dem wenig entgegenzusetzen.

Das ist ein schlechtes Zeichen für Russland.

Was bedeutet das für Putin?

Viele Kommentatoren waren nach dem von Lukaschenko vermittelten Rückzug ratlos, was sich nun eigentlich in Russland abgespielt habe. War das ein versuchter Staatsstreich? Eine Farce?

Viele Fragen sind ungekl?rt, auch über die Verhandlungen, an denen nach manchen Berichten nicht nur Lukaschenko, sondern auch russische Vertraute Putins beteiligt gewesen sein sollen.

Die Vermutung, die Lage habe sich nur vorübergehend entsch?rft, ist weit verbreitet. Die Moral der russischen Armee ist generell schlecht; bei Wagner war sie weit h?her, aber als Untereinheit der von Schoigu angeführten Streitkr?fte dürften sie sich nicht wohlfühlen. Der Politologe Wladimir Pastuchow schrieb, die Ereignisse h?tten Putins Schw?che offenbart. Die Angst werde geringer, und irgendwann werde sich einer finden, der Prigoschins Aufstand wiederholen wolle. Dann aber ernsthaft.

Die gegenteilige Ansicht gibt es aber auch: Putin habe es geschafft, den Konflikt friedlich zu l?sen, ohne dass es zum ?ussersten gekommen sei. Dadurch habe sich Putins Position eher noch gest?rkt.

Allerdings dürften sich angesichts des Ablaufs der Ereignisse und des Umstands, dass Putin seinen Gegner zuvor monatelang quasi gen?hrt hatte, auch manche in der Elite die Frage stellen, wie sehr Putin noch der sichere Wert ist.

Ob die Ereignisse in der Einstellung der konformistischen Mehrheit der Bev?lkerung zum Krieg und zu Putin eine ?nderung bewirkten, ist sehr fraglich.

Und schliesslich ist auch das Schicksal der von Prigoschin so sehr kritisierten Milit?rführung nicht definitiv gekl?rt.

Ende des Aufstands in Russland: Prigoschin führt Putins Schw?che vor (nzz.ch)

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