Mortgage Market Update - 9/16/2024
Nick Steinhauer
I help homebuyers make wise financial decisions. First-timers, investors, veterans (THANK YOU!)...I'll take care of you like you're my mom.
The Time to Cut is NOW ??
The time has finally come. The much-anticipated Fed meeting will arrive this Wednesday, September 18th. It is a forgone conclusion that the Fed will finally cut rates for the 1st time since the Covid crisis!
Nick and I have reiterated the point that the actual rate cut on Wednesday will likely have a minimal impact on mortgage rates. Reason being, the current mortgage rates already account for what the market expects the Fed to do. In fact, much of the recent decline in mortgage rates reflects the market's anticipation of lower Fed Funds Rates in the near future.
While we all know by now that the Fed rate cut doesn’t guarantee lower mortgage rates, the information released on Wednesday can still lead to significant volatility. In this case, one reason for potential market swings is whether the Fed will cut rates by 0.25% or 0.50%. With the market split, any outcome will surprise a portion of investors, which can fuel volatility. If the Fed does surprise and cuts by 0.50%, expect the mortgage market to rejoice and rates to drop even further!
Key Takeaway: We're not too focused on the Fed's upcoming rate cut because it's already factored into today's interest rates. What really matters is if the Fed signals more aggressive rate cuts in the coming months—this could push rates even lower. On the other hand, if their outlook is less aggressive than expected, rates might go back up and stay steady until the next big economic news.
Ohio Named #1 for Job Creation ??
Nick and I speak with hundreds of borrowers each month, and the top question we hear is, "Do you think the market will crash?" It’s a tough question because the answer really depends on location. In states with high market volatility, like Florida or Texas, there could be some cause for concern. But if you’re in a state with a strong job market and affordable housing, like Ohio, there's really no need to worry!
That brings me to why now is an incredible time to live and work in Ohio! Recently, Ohio ranked No. 1 on Site Selection magazine’s Global Groundwork Index for the second year in a row, thanks to job creation, capital investments, and infrastructure development. From 2020 to mid-2024, Ohio secured over 94,310 job commitments and $65.2 billion in investments.
JobsOhio President J.P. Nauseef noted that Ohio's strong manufacturing and transportation sectors, along with a skilled workforce and safe communities, have attracted major investments from companies like Intel, GM, and Honda. Additionally, smaller businesses are thriving, bolstered by investments in innovation districts and data centers.
Columbus and Cincinnati ranked third and fourth among major U.S. metro areas, further emphasizing Ohio's growth potential.
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Key Takeaway: The old cliche is true - it is all about location, location, location! As long as Ohio continues to experience strong job growth, it will remain a prime spot for real estate investment. Keep emphasizing the positive local economic trends when speaking with potential borrowers. Prices will continue to rise with solid demand and job growth in your local market!
Don't Listen to the Media!
I'll be the first to admit - I hate the national media. Since 2012, they've repeatedly pushed fear about an impending housing crash. Housing economist Logan Mohtashami shared a list of reasons the media has predicted a home price crash over the past 11 years:
The reality is that they’ve missed almost every projection.?The media has become a clickbait, propaganda machine.
As the chart below shows, we are still below pre-pandemic levels for both foreclosures and new bankruptcies. The idea of a looming housing crash is absurd, especially with millions of homeowners benefiting from low fixed mortgage rates and substantial equity.
It’s crucial to focus on the facts rather than paying attention to the mainstream media, which has become irrelevant and out of touch. It’s our duty to convey the true state of the market instead of letting the media dictate the narrative???