Morning Update 8/29/16
Energies are lower as doubts rise about an agreement by OPEC being reached next month. Friday, the Iranian oil minister was quoted as saying they would not participate in a freeze agreement until reaching their pre-sanction share of OPEC output--they are putting the onus on others to stabilize the market (Bloomberg). The Saudi oil minister was quoted as saying he doesn't "believe that an intervention of significance is required" - and he doesn't support a production cut (Bloomberg)
The US oil rig count released Friday was unchanged
CFTC data showed that money managers raised their net longs in WTI by the most in one week since 2006 (Reuters)--they added net 88,000 contracts to their length (of which they covered 66,250 contracts of shorts ) - Bloomberg says that net longs have tripled in the past 3 weeks RB longs held by money
Technically, the energies remain on the defensive - with last week's lows not far below current prices in WTI and ULSD. WTI has support at 4659-63 then 4609-15 --with resistance seen at 4740-46 then 4790-4800
ULSD has support at 14657-63 (the low last week), then at 14385-14400--with resistance seen at 14925-40 (below the overnight high of 14960)--then resistance comes in at 15075-90
RB has support at 14710-30 then 14545-55--resistance above lies at 14925-35-then 15055-65 (this being the overnight high)
Natural Gas is down 2,5 cts in the expiring spot September contract. We have heard several sources say they see NG going to $3.00 - the sources are bank analysts, technical analysts and a colleague - the ability to reach 3,00 will have to wait for the October contract to become spot - if it were to get there at all. For today, October futures have resistance at 2916-2926 (the overnight high is 2917)--above that resistance comes in at 2947-2949 (last week's high in October futures). Support below is seen at 2843-2850, then 2809-2817. The NG rig count out Friday was unchanged. CFTC data shows that net shorts fell by 33% in the period ended 8/23
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