MORNING TRADE NOTES- (9/24/15)- Meltdown?

--->Morning Call

We’re looking at mixed markets around the world with a negative tone. Europe, which was beaten down on the Volkswagen story, continues to unravel. The DAX is down almost 9% in the past week and off another 0.7% today. The HEDJ has been technically broken for months and is on its way to the August 24low of $52.45.

 Asia is mixed as the Nikkei opens for trading down 2.7%. Mazda got hit hard.

The Shanghai is still trying to hold its lower range. It’s up 0.9% but feels vulnerable.
 
Our markets had a quiet session as some participants took off for Yom Kippur. It was an inside day within this lower wedge-type pattern. Most traders are still on their toes as it feels like a test of the August lows is on the way.

SPX futures are down about 15 handles and below the 1925-1932 support pivot. Under that you have 1903, 1880, and 1867. To relieve pressure, it needs a close above 1949, but there still is so much overhang above.
 
Yellen speaks today at 5:00 p.m. ET. We'll see if she gets a bit more hawkish or continues the disappointing dovish tone from when the Fed announced it wasn’t raising rates.
 
SPY has an important support area at $192.50-$192.90. Below this and it can see $190.75 pretty fast. The next spot is $188.50, with the August 2 low at $182.30. If markets try to rally, there is resistance at $194.67 and an open gap to $196.
 
Biotech has been broken for a while but the downside intensified on Hillary Clinton’s remarks on drug pricing. IBB broke $351 and is trying to find support around $328-$330. If this breaks, there can be more downside.
 
Oil tried to hold up in the face of Goldman's call for $20 oil. It is down small and needs to hold $42ish. A close below there and $38 could come into play.

USO needs to hold $14.20ish. Below this and a test of the lows can happen.

 XLE broke $62.50 and now it could see its 8/24 low at $58.74. 

Banks have been weaker and got sold again when the Fed failed to raise rates. See how they react to Yellen today. XLF has major support at $22.25. Under this, there is a big air pocket to the August 24 low at $18.52.
 
Tech has showed intermittent signs of strength but that can change quickly. If QQQ breaks $103.13, next support is $100.63, then $98.01.

GLD held the $107.50 pivot and has been stair-stepping higher recently. $109.38 is the next resistance point. A close above this might bring some attention back 

TLT looks up this morning, clearing resistance of $122. See if it can hold above. Next big resistance is $124.85.

Some stocks are trying to hold up but most are broken and have been taken out to the woodshed.
 
Apple (AAPL) was a bit stronger yesterday again as it’s been upgraded the past two days. See if it can go green today and hold $113.30. $112.35 is more intermediate support. Below that and it weakens again.

Amazon.com (AMZN) is trying to stay constructive. Some got stopped out below $539. Now use $532 as a pivot. Below that and momentum could leave. 

Google (GOOGL) has been choppy and hard to trust. It broke back below $655, a spot where some sold longs or maybe got short. Now see how it handles $645. Below that, the next real spot is $626.

Tesla (TSLA) holds up better than most names. That can continue if it holds $250ish. A move back above $265 and it could go higher when the market stabilizes.

FitBit (FIT) is trying to act better. It needs to hold $37.50 to keep momentum.

Netflix (NFLX) has been weaker, getting rejected at each attempt to take back the 21 day. There have been some tactical trades here and there. $93.50 offers decent support, so see how it handles that.

Facebook (FB) has been trying to hold up but it could be tough if we see significant pressure. $92 is decent support. Below that, exercise caution.

Here are some names Redler All-Access readers asked me to go over:

Goldman Sachs (GS) led the banks lower. Recent pivot support is $177.75. Below this is the August 24lows of $172.10.

Starbucks (SBUX) still acts best in breed. It's been above the 8 day for most of September. It needs to hold $56ish to keep momentum 

Under Armour (UA) is trying to hold the recent breakout in a tough tape. Use $99.50 as a key pivot to hold.

Wynn Resorts (WYNN): this broken, battered name is a good example of why investors should use stops. It's been below the 200 day since it broke $190. Now its recent pivot low is $60.06. Be careful with it.

Alibaba (BABA) has been broken for most of its public life. The most recent day to take notice was 6/8 when it was at $90. Now it's back near the $58 low.

Lam Research (LRCX): this broken name just got hit hard with 4 down days. Maybe it can put up an oversold bounce using the $63.62 pivot.

Himax (HIMX) seems to be acting better recently. It needs to hold $7.50 for this to continue. Above $8.08, and the next resistance is $9. 

My Focus

I've been very tactical lately with risk down, going both long and short. If we see a quick move to SPY $190 in the first hour, I will try and buy down to $188.50. If not, I won't do much. I will see if AAPL and FB can be bought for quickies. I’ll look watch whether IBB holds $328 to see how weak we can be today.