MORNING TRADE NOTES- (3/25/16)- Patience

We have mixed markets to start the week with most of Europe closed.

Asia isn't doing much. 

US markets had their first bout of selling in a while after the SPX hit 2056. On Wednesday, it lost upper support and closed below 2041, getting some short or at least more flexible.

 On Thursday morning, we gapped down and held the targeted 2022 area, a retest of the descending channel break. We then grinded up to close on highs. There was decent tactical action overall.

SPX futures are up 7-8 handles, giving some upside follow-through to Thursday's reversal. See if it holds 2036 (Thursday's high). If it goes red, 2022 is the important support pivot for the week. If early strength holds, there is minor resistance at 2044, then 2056 is the weekly resistance pivot. 

SPY put in a pivot low at $201.74 Thursday morning and closed green. It's up 0.5%, well aboveThursday's $203.16 high. See how much of today's gap holds. Minor resistance stands at $204.33, then we have the recent rally’s high at $205.23.

QQQ went green first Thursday. We have $106.35 as a new support pivot. We can't get too bearish if we hold this for a few sessions. It looks above Thursday's $107.29 high. Next resistance is $107.80. Watch this level to judge the power of this move.  A strong close above could attract momentum.

The Russell held its 21 day Thursday with IWM putting in a $105.71 pivot low. We can't get too bearish if this holds for a few sessions. It looks above $107.22 (Thursday's high). See if it holds that. Bigger resistance is closer to $108.56, then $109.95.
 
Biotech is choppy with streaky action here and there. The sector has lagged this 6-week move but it’s trying to base. IBB held $249. See if it gets rejected at $259. The next spot above is $263 (the 50 day), then $270.

 Most sectors lost their 8 day moving averages but held the 21 day. See how those levels get handled to map momentum.

 Banks broke the 8 day last Wednesday but held the 21 day. XLF put in a new pivot low to trade against at $22.10. The gap gets filled up to $22.40. This group still lags. 

Oil is up a bit this morning. USO broke the 8 day last Wednesday but held the 21 day with a pivot low of $9.74 to trade against. Resistance is $10.27, then $10.80.

XLE held the 21 day with a $60.40 support pivot to trade against. Now see if it reclaims or gets rejected at $62.80. Resistance above is $64.30.

High-beta tech is mixed but held up pretty well last week with nice two-way action:
 
Google (GOOGL) isn't easy to trade. It held $750 Thursday. See if that continues. But that’s a big if. Real power can happen with a move above $765 on volume.
 
Amazon.com (AMZN) had a spirited move off the Red Dog Reversal around the $546 pivot on 3/21. It's been up each day and hit a high of $583.55 Thursday. It’s hard to buy this day 5 open, but doesn't mean it's a short. Use Thursday's high as your pivot. Bigger resistance is $607. The WSJ had a cautious article out Friday.
 
Netflix (NFLX) has been very sluggish without much much to do. $97.07 is pivot support. I'd avoid it until it has some type of "blaring candle". Resistance is $102.40.
 
Tesla (TSLA) has been moving fast. Lots of us caught a nice short from last Tuesday as it was so extended. Then it reversed hard Thursday with a nice RDR around the $222 pivot. Now it's tougher. Use Thursday's $229 high as your pivot for action. The recent high is $239.88. Maybe we get a cute short today against a 15-30 minute high.
 
Alibaba (BABA) had a big move and got extended before it pulled back late last week. It put in a pivot low at $73.53 Thursday and can use some time. There is minor resistance at $77, then $79.68.
 
Baidu (BIDU) still acts well with nothing special pattern-wise. Thursday's pivot low is $181. Let it rebuild.
 
Facebook (FB) hasn't been explosive but it’s trended higher and has been holding the 8 day. It acted well Thursday, getting me back in. The next real resistance area is $115-$117.

Apple (AAPL) still acts better than it did most of last year. It's flagging again above $104.80. There is talk of an iPhone overhaul next year. $107.65 is the recent high.

Microsoft (MSFT) hangs around. Above $54.33, it could grind back towards $55.

Steel names had a strong recovery Thursday after a weak close Wednesday:

US Steel (X): I tweeted that I covered at $14.25 and then it had a big engulfing day when it reclaimed $14.75. See if it can clear $16-$16.20.

Freeport McMoran (FCX) broke the 8 day but held the 21 day with a pivot low at $9.10. It then reclaimed $9.73 pivot. It probably needs time to create a new pattern. $11.45 is the weekly high.

Metals have been choppy since GLD made its high at $122.37. Strength off the Brussels attack was sold and it’s been weaker since then. The recent support pivot is $116.16, with the 50 day below at $114.27. There is an open gap at $117.12.

GDX had a big gap down Wednesday with a pivot at $19.88. If it can't close it soon, it can see more downside below $19.02.

TLT is trying to break above its descending channel after a big pullback from the $135.25 high. If it can't hold $129, it can fall below $127.22.
 

Today’s Trading Focus

I came in Thursday net short, covered in the first 15 minutes, but didn't really get back into longs. So I might fade the strength, using the first 15-30 minute high in SPY to try a cute short. I may do the same for TSLA and AMZN as well.

But I wouldn’t fight too hard because there are four days left in the month and things might just hang around until April. I am long FB and will trim some.

Thursday was a better long entry. From here, it looks like patience will pay off.