Morning Market Brief: November 23, 2023

Global economic activity ticks higher in Q3?

The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) says the global economy grew over the third quarter of 2023. However, the pace of growth was relatively muted. The global economy has proven to be relatively resilient in 2023 despite expectations it could fall into a recession amid aggressive monetary tightening by several major central banks.?

• Based on preliminary estimates, the OECD reported the global economy expanded by 0.5% over the third quarter of 2023. Third-quarter growth matched the 0.5% increase in the second quarter.
• Among G7 countries, economic growth was 0.6% in the third quarter, driven by a 1.2% increase in the US, the world’s largest economy. Meanwhile, growth fell in Japan, while the UK posted no change in its gross domestic product. Canada has not yet officially released its third-quarter results.
• Aggressive monetary tightening by central banks was expected to slow economic growth, which appears to be happening. Many economists had expected the global economy to fall into a recession, which it has avoided, at least to this point.
• The OECD says global gross domestic product was 6.0% higher in the third quarter compared to the fourth quarter of 2019, just before the pandemic. A relatively robust consumer has driven the overall pickup in global economic activity over this time.

The global economy continues to expand, but the pace of growth has become sluggish. Relatively high inflation and the aggressive monetary tightening by global central banks have helped dampen consumer and business spending. Despite the third-quarter increase in global economic growth, it is essential to note that gains have not been even across countries and regions. As such, it might be a good time to review your portfolio and make some tactical changes to take advantage of opportunities across different asset classes and geographies. Cyclical stocks could offer some risk amid the uncertainty, but they could be poised for strong growth when economic conditions stabilize or improve.

At?CIBC Private Wealth , we aim to take a comprehensive approach to managing, building and protecting your wealth. If you'd like to discuss this market and economic update in more detail, please get in touch with your advisor any time.