More Than Just Data: People are Good, Seems to be Working, and It's a Walkoff!
Changing and adapting are two incredibly difficult tasks for most people. This has surely been the case back to the time of early humans, but the consequences have certainly shifted in more recent decades. In early stages of human development, change was required for survival; therefore, evolution took over and programmed the ability to adapt into the DNA (wild oversimplification, clearly). Those who had an innate ability to adapt had a better chance of survival and therefore a higher probability of passing that ability on to their offspring. These days the inability to adapt has a less dramatic outcome, and therefore is no longer a more prevalent characteristic of DNA that is being passed down or erased.
While lives might not be as dependent on the ability to change, the consequences could be dramatic. The challenge is that we never will know what could have been. Proving a negative is very difficult, if not impossible, but thinking through the changes that almost didn’t happen, it stands to reason that there are more changes than we can imagine that could have improved our lives and our world but didn’t.
Sadly, we have turbo-charged our inability to adapt and change by elevating the rewards for sticking with the status quo versus taking a chance on something new. This is the case in the corporate world, entertainment, sports, education, etc. It is all around us. The system is set up so that the vast majority are better off following the accepted path and failing than trying something new. The few that do break through with changes are the exception not the rule and so often had to work tirelessly to break through conventional wisdom to make the change happen.
Two areas that seem to buck this trend are science and fashion. In both areas, there is an imperative to constantly innovate and change. While the ability to change in these two groups might be similar, the driving forces are very different. Science (yes, a very broad category) was designed with the idea that there are likely infinite things to learn. A process was developed to test our new theories and validate new findings. Change is the foundation of science.
Fashion has also always been built around change. Standing still for the big designers is a recipe for failure, as is not staying ahead of the multitudes of companies that are invariably going to “borrow” your ideas. Survival is built on the ability to change and move forward. Without it you will end up extinct.
A world where the status quo is not exactly inspiring, but too often it is where the rewards lay. Change for change's sake is not the solution, but an open mind on something new, and listening to new concepts and ideas is a great place to start.
?????? 1 )?? 10 = 8
One of the questions lots of organizations want to know is, “What would happen with our customers if….” Implementing changes can be tricky (see above). Typically, you want more customers, and will this change attract more of them? Will it affect our current customers? Sometimes the simplest approach is to just ask.
Last year, when Netflix was rumored to be beginning the process of cutting down on password sharing, we asked Americans how this would affect them personally. More than half (55%) said that they didn’t share their Netflix password, 10% said that they shared their password, but the change wouldn’t be a big deal for them, and 10% said they would stop watching Netflix (26% reported not watching Netflix).
Fast forward one year later and when we asked what the effect was, 8% said that they stopped watching Netflix. That is a shockingly close outcome to what they said would happen. This doesn’t always happen since people are not the best predictors of their own behavior at times, but it never hurts to ask.
领英推荐
? 2) 365 = -28.6%
The Fed increasing borrowing rates to cool down inflation has a close (but not direct) connection to mortgage rates. Currently, the average rate on a 30-year fixed loan is a little over 7%, more than double the rate just a few years ago. This is having the desired effect of cooling down the housing market, at least in terms of the volume of sales (prices are not dropping in most of the bigger markets), and the number of mortgage applications. According to the Mortgage Bankers Association, the last week of August hit a 27 year low in mortgage applications and a drop of 28.6% compared to the same period in 2022.
The same report also pointed to an increase in applications the first week of September, so we will need to wait and see what that means going forward. In general, it is still not a great time for those who need to buy a home, and it is definitely not a good time for those in the lending business, but if you are trying to sell a home, the lack of available inventory is likely working in your favor.
? 3) 10= $5 billion
The United Auto Workers went on strike at Midnight today and according to calculations a 10-day strike could cost the economy about $5 billion in lost wages, productivity sales, etc. In 2019, there was a 40-day strike at GM which had arguably very little effect on the ability for people to buy a new car, but inventories today are about 25% of the level they were at when the strike happened four years ago. This also is the first time that there has been a strike at all three major manufacturers at the same time, so this is all uncharted territory.
To make matters even more fun, this strike is happening when we are about two weeks away from a potential federal government shutdown. And since everything seems to be political these days, rest assured there are politics involved in the union strike. The UAW, who typically endorses Democratic candidates, has not endorsed President Biden, pointing to his policy on increasing the numbers of electric vehicles (the unions’ view EVs as bad for their members) and former President Trump is reportedly working hard to get the support of members in his likely 2024 race against Biden.
As they say: you really can’t make this sh*t up.
We hope you enjoyed this week’s edition and, as always, we look forward to your thoughts and hearing what stories caught your eye this week.
?