More Than Just Data: How do you reach GenZ?, Desperate Need of Chanel, Wake Me Up When It Ends
Well, we have hit the proverbial home stretch of the 2024 election, and recent financial reports from the two main presidential campaigns and affiliated PACs report that half a billion dollars have been spent in the past two weeks. If you live in a swing state… thoughts and prayers go out to you. Besides the ridiculous amount of money being spent, we have also hit the silly season for prognosticators and newspapers. The silly season has always been a thing, but after the 2016 election - when many were shocked at the results - it has taken on a new level of CYA, where credible people and credible newspapers will run an article for every possible scenario so that they presumably can say… “See, we told you.”
This is not to say that people are making things up, but it has been somewhat comical to see how many different ways there are to say, “We have no idea what is going to happen.” The Economist announced last week that a Trump victory was their current prediction, with a 54% chance of winning. In the article, it also mentioned that there was a 60% chance that either Trump or Harris could win the Electoral College by a wide margin.
Huh?
The prediction seems to be that, well, anything could happen. And yet, we somehow can’t just say that. Guessing that won't get the clicks. Even Nate Silver, whose usual M.O. is to make multiple opposing predictions[1]?, said this week that he is not sure, although his gut says Trump is going to win, but also that you shouldn’t trust your gut. Helpful.
The next 10 days should be very painful for most of us, and I feel confident in predicting that most political reporters and newspapers will continue to run articles and make statements that cover all possible outcomes. Post-election - at least, once a winner is declared (don’t expect that on November 5th) - we will all get to hear more than once… “See? I told you.”
The truth is, the data is fuzzy and some numbers point to Harris having the advantage going into the last 10 days, and numbers that show Trump has a better chance of winning. The only thing that seems unlikely to happen is that Trump wins the popular vote, regardless of the New York Times pointing out this morning that it could technically happen. Nate Cohn is definitely channeling his inner Silver in this masterclass on predicting everything while also predicting nothing.?
It is OK to say “I don’t know,” especially when you are dealing with predictions based on data from a form of research that states unequivocally that pinning down a precise number is an impossibility (the margin of error). Couple this with the fact that our unique way of picking our President and 10,000 votes in 6 states could swing the election from a landslide in either direction to everything in between.
With 10 days to go and, according to our numbers, roughly one-third of voters casting their ballots already, there is little that will change between now and November 5th. Please vote, and then keep your fingers crossed that the post-election period is not as bad as Americans think it will be.
For those who just need numbers, we are posting daily updates here.
And if you have time, go check out our webinar from last week here, where we walked through our latest data.
Ahh… the beautiful chaos of American democracy.
As always, here are some of the (non-political) data points that caught our eye this week.
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1)??? 19%
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I wonder what Don Draper would think of the advertising landscape these days. We have come a long way from the world of three TV channels and, while we had a nice run of ad-free entertainment, streaming services have clearly decided that they too would like to get ad dollars. Who can blame them, with how much money there is out there looking to get the right product ads to the right people? While not great for the consumers out there, it is also not exactly easy to navigate for the advertisers right now. With the average household having three different streaming services, we also see very different patterns in the types of subscriptions that people have based on demographics, especially age.
Gen Z consumers often have the highest concentration of subscriptions compared to other generations, but they are also often the least likely to have ad-based subscriptions. For example, two-thirds of Gen Z report having a Netflix subscription (the same as Millennials and 8 points higher than Gen X), but just 19% have an ad-based subscription, about half the level of the older generations.
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2)??? $8.5B
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A federal judge blocked the merger of Capri Holdings and Tapestry, which are the respective groups that own Coach and Michael Kors. The $8.5 billion sale was designed to help compete with some of the big European-based luxury brands, but the ruling decided that this would result in “a loss of head-to-head competition in the market for accessible-luxury handbags.” Count me as someone who was unaware that affordable luxury was a category, but apparently, it is, and it is not small.
The judge ruled that this merger would mean increased prices for consumers, something that the executive teams testified that they wouldn’t do. Apparently, the judge did not believe them. It might have had something to do with the fact that Tapestry had a presentation that clearly stated that a merger would allow them to increase prices[2]?. Whoops.?
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3)??? 40%???
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As a Red Sox fan, there is no question who I hope loses the World Series. And while I am sure MLB is very happy about the NY-LA match-up, the tickets are not exactly cheap for any Yankees or Dodgers fans out there. But for those who are really interested in watching a game in person, LA will be a better bet. Ticket prices for Game 1 in LA can currently be purchased for a low $975, while fans need to be prepared to spend $2,000 for Game 3 in NY.
Overall, the average price increase for seeing a game in NY versus LA is about 40%. Talk about an upsell.
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We hope you enjoyed this week’s edition and, as always, we look forward to your thoughts and hearing what stories caught your eye this week.