More Than Just Data: Not Good, Good, and a Better Choice?
Sometimes change is incremental and you don’t really notice the shifts until you look back in time and see the difference. Other times, you see or hear something new and you just know….this is different. Some of the bigger moments that stick out in my mind are (in no particular order) the first time I heard Smells Like Teen Spirit (the era of hair bands was over), using a first-generation iPhone (very cool, and still have never owned one), and the first time having a really good glass of champagne (apparently it was cheap champagne that I wasn’t a fan of). Sometimes discussion around change feels overhyped, other times it is more in the jaw-dropping category. This week, I had the latter experience.
A regular group discussion on AI and tech this week focused on Google’s new Notebook LM. I had seen a few posts about it on social media but didn’t really look into it. The real short version is you can upload information (be careful this is a free test right now, which means anything you upload can be used by Google) and then ask it to do different things: summarize, create a study guide, a FAQ, etc. One of the options is to create a podcast. So I uploaded our last two Political Trendwatch newsletters and clicked create a podcast. Three minutes later there was a 15-minute discussion between two “hosts” talking about our data and findings. It is scary good. (You can listen here.)
On the one hand, the positives of this technology were instantly apparent. We typically release our data and findings through written articles, posts, etc. While this works for many people, we also know that the written word is not the preferred method of communication for everyone. Now there is a tool where the findings can easily be disseminated through audio and not just reading word for word what we wrote. This was always an option but the time and effort it would take to create a recorded discussion was not something that we had. Now it can be done in a small amount of time and with relatively little effort.
On the other hand, it doesn’t take much, if any, imagination to see the negative side of this technology. Misinformation and disinformation are no longer fringe efforts but part of our day-to-day lives. As our politics has moved away from governing to only focusing on winning, innuendo from candidates has likewise moved to just outright lies in order to divide and scare. Now you take our current world and you add in the ability to easily create these lies to be discussed in what sounds like a credible discussion….scary.
The pros and cons of advancements are nothing new, but the speed and reach of the changes these days is certainly something we have not dealt with before. Couple this with dysfunctional political systems, which equates to the inability to regulate effectively and it is not hard to see how it can all go south quickly. At the same time, there are so many possibilities for what this technology can do. Typically, I try to stay on the positive side of things, but boy is it tough to block out the existential dread… I wonder if there is an app for that.
As always, here are some of the data points that caught our eye this week.
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1)??? 91%
Sticking with the existential dread theme, we are less than four weeks away from the election, and it is safe to say that most Americans are not feeling positive about the post-election period. In fact, more than 9 in 10 Americans are expecting some level of violence after November 5th. The concern over violence is higher if Harris wins, (64% believe it will happen regardless of how close the outcome of the election is), while less than 1 in 5 Americans believe there won’t be violence if Harris wins.
The numbers are lower if Trump wins, with 44% of Americans expecting violence compared to just 22% who feel there will not be violence regardless of how he wins. A majority of Trump supporters (54%) believe that there will be violence if their preferred candidate wins, while 57% believe there will be violence if Harris wins. Harris supporters have a different view with 71% feeling there will be violence if Harris wins but just a third believe there will be violence if Trump wins.
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2)??? 2.4%
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In a report yesterday from the Bureau of Labor and Statistics, the U.S. consumer price index increased by a seasonally adjusted 0.2% in September, which equates to an annual inflation rate of 2.4%. Core prices, excluding food and energy, rose 0.3% on the month, with an annual rate of 3.3%. The increase in inflation was primarily driven by higher food prices and shelter costs, which offset a decline in energy prices. Used and new vehicle costs, medical care services, and apparel prices also contributed to the rise. For food items, eggs and butter contributed to the inflation increase mostly due to an outbreak of Bird Flu dating back to 2022. Shelter costs showed a slight decrease.
The Federal Reserve (aka The Fed), is expected to continue cutting rates, and since the inflation rate is just above its target of 2.0% it seems likely this will happen (although the level of cut is a mystery).
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3)??? 25???????
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After 25 years as a football (soccer for US readers) coach, Red Bull announced this week that Jurgen Klopp is going to take over as Head of Global Football for the Austrian-based organization. After shockingly turning down the opportunity to coach the US Men’s team (sarcasm), Klopp is now going to oversee the multiple teams under the Red Bull umbrella. According to the release, he will not be involved in day-to-day decisions at the various teams (which include Salzburg, Leipzig, and New York), but setting the overall direction and providing advice and guidance. While there is no public info on the exact terms of his deal with the company, there seems to be a release clause that Klopp could leave if the German National Team job becomes available to him.
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It should be interesting to see what changes are put in place for the clubs around the globe.
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We hope you enjoyed this week’s edition and, as always, we look forward to your thoughts and hearing what stories caught your eye this week.