More Than Just Data: Congressional Data, a Cut, and a Banger
Not sure if you heard, but the end of remote work is happening in 2025. What is also happening is that Amazon will not be able to hire another employee again and they are going out of business within months. These seem to be the focus of the “hot takes” this week after CEO Andy Jassy announced that Amazon is going to 5 days in the office starting in January . His goal is for Amazon to “operate like the world’s largest startup.” We, or at least I, tend to throw a lot of shade at any ideology that is based on the idea that either I get 100% of what I want or nothing. The zero-sum mentality is certainly en vogue and it clearly does not stop at the edge of the political water.
Assuming Amazon follows through and goes to 5 days in the office, it feels like a safe bet that they will not be going out of business anytime soon, and I’m also willing to put some good money on the fact that they will indeed be able to hire new employees. At the same time, it feels like a solid bet that this policy will piss off a bunch of people and that some employees are going to try to find other jobs (probably a feature of Amazon’s plan, not a bug), meaning they will limit, to some extent, the pool that Amazon can hire from. I doubt any of this is groundbreaking to the higher-ups that made this decision.
What is surprising to me (although it shouldn’t be) is how Amazon’s decision is either a validation of other people’s thinking or a stick in the eye to those who favor a remote or hybrid approach. What a company or organization decides is best for them and their employees should be based on what is actually the best for them, not what other companies are doing. Every decision does not need to be a public statement, and every decision other organizations make is not an affront to the decisions you or your organization made.
There are plenty of productive conversations that could come out of Amazon’s announcement, such as what office culture really means, how long does (or should) a start-up mentality last, or a discussion around their statement that “companies need processes to run effectively, and process does not equal bureaucracy.” We can, and should, be talking about the benefits that remote or hybrid work provides employees who have physical disabilities or are caretakers in their “off hours”, as well as the benefits of in-person collaboration. But that requires thoughtful consideration and discussion, and we generally all know it’s easier to just default to “I’m right and you’re wrong.”
At least the click rates will go up.
As always, here are some of the data points that caught our eye this week.
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1)??? 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 4th
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Measuring how opinions change over time is the core of our approach. Sometimes, it’s tough to understand why things change, especially when the change is incremental. There are other times where shocks to the system make it very clear on the “why.” Even when exact causes of change are clear, the reaction to the change can be wildly different. This year’s election season has been fascinating to say the least, and the reaction to Vice President Harris becoming the nominee for the Democratic party so late in the game has provided endless opportunities for new analysis and interpretation of the data.
This week, we took a look at how Americans viewed the Congressional race and how the numbers were affected by the switch from President Biden to Vice President Harris. Overall, Harris currently has the highest level of average support, followed by Congressional Democrats, then Congressional Republicans, and former President Trump nearly two points lower than his legislative counterparts. If we filter the data by gender, among men, the order of support is Congressional Republicans, Trump, Harris, and then Congressional Democrats. Among women, the order is Harris, Congressional Democrats, Congressional Republicans, and then Trump.
Americans under the age of 45 have a different ranking (Congressional Dems, Harris, Trump, Congressional GOP), as do those over the age of 65 (Harris, Congressional Republicans, Congressional Democrats, and then Trump). We put together an interactive chart for others to look at the data… give it a try and we hope you find it as fascinating as we do.
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2)??? 0.5
This week, the Fed announced a “jumbo” cut of 0.5 percentage points on their benchmark rate. The cut itself was not a surprise, but the size of that cut was not a given before the announcement. As with most things in the economy, the effects of this decision will not be felt immediately by most consumers. However, it does seem to signal a few things. First, inflation in the U.S is under control and the Fed is feeling good about the trajectory and longevity of this trend. Second, the Fed is concerned that continuing the higher rate could start cutting too much into the job markets.
The balance between keeping inflation down while not cooling off the economy too much is a tough one to maintain, but so far the Fed seems to be hitting a nice balance. Since so much of an economy is based on perception, it is always hard to perfectly predict consumer mentality and therefore spending but, so far, the Fed seems to have a solid handle on things.
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3)??? 50-50
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For those on the East Coast, there is a good chance that you missed history being made last night in Major League Baseball. For the first time ever, a player has hit 50 home runs and stolen 50 bases in the same season. Los Angeles Dodgers' Shohei Ohtani not only made history last night, but did it in style. He went 6/6 at the plate including three home runs, two doubles, and a single. This prolific night ended with Ohtani credited with 10 RBIs. And he also had two stolen bases. Oh, and the Dodgers clinched a playoff berth with the win last night… to quote Phil Rizzuto: “Holy cow.”
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We hope you enjoyed this week’s edition and, as always, we look forward to your thoughts and hearing what stories caught your eye this week.