MORE FUTURE PREDICTIONS:
Robert Goldman MD, DO, PhD
Co-Founder & Chairman - A4M American Academy of Anti-Aging Medicine
In 1998, Kodak had 170,000 employees and sold 85% of all photo paper worldwide. Within just a few years, their business model disappeared and they went bankrupt. What happened to Kodak will happen in a lot of industries in the next 10 years - and most people don't see it coming. Did you think in 1998 that 3 years later you would never take pictures on paper film again? Yet digital cameras were invented in 1975. The first ones only had 10,000 pixels, but followed Moore's law. So as with all exponential technologies, it was a disappointment for a long time, before it became way superior and got mainstream in only a few short years. It will now happen with Artificial Intelligence, health, autonomous and electric cars, education, 3D printing, agriculture and jobs. Welcome to the 4th Industrial Revolution. Welcome to the Exponential Age.
Software will disrupt most traditional industries in the next 5-10 years.
Uber is just a software tool, they don't own any cars, and are now the biggest taxi company in the world. Airbnb is now the biggest hotel company in the world, although they don't own any properties.
Artificial Intelligence: Computers become exponentially better in understanding the world. This year, a computer beat the best Go player in the world, 10 years earlier than expected. In the US, young lawyers already don't get jobs. Because of IBM Watson, you can get legal advice (so far for more or less basic stuff) within seconds, with 90% accuracy compared with 70% accuracy when done by humans. So if you study law, stop immediately. There will be 90% fewer lawyers in the future, only specialists will remain. Watson already helps nurses diagnosing cancer, 4 time more accurate than human nurses. Facebook now has a pattern recognition software that can recognize faces better than humans. By 2030, computers will become more intelligent than humans.
Autonomous Cars: In 2018 the first self-driving cars will appear for the public. Around 2020, the complete industry will start to be disrupted. You don't want to own a car anymore. You will call a car with your phone, it will show up at your location and drive you to your destination. You will not need to park it, you only pay for the driven distance and can be productive while driving. Our kids will never get a driver's license and will never own a car. It will change the cities, because we will need 90-95% fewer cars for that. We can transform former parking space into parks. 1.2 million people die each year in car accidents worldwide. We now have one accident every 100,000 km, with autonomous driving that will drop to one accident in 10 million km. That will save a million lives each year.
Most car companies may become bankrupt. Traditional car companies try the evolutionary approach and just build a better car, while tech companies (Tesla, Apple, Google) will do the revolutionary approach and build a computer on wheels. I spoke to a lot of engineers from Volkswagen and Audi; they are completely terrified of Tesla.
Insurance Companies will have massive trouble because without accidents, the insurance will become 100x cheaper. Their car insurance business model will disappear.
Real estate will change. Because if you can work while you commute, people will move further away to live in a more beautiful neighborhood.
Electric cars won’t become mainstream until 2020. Cities will be less noisy because all cars will run on electric. Electricity will become incredibly cheap and clean: Solar production has been on an exponential curve for 30 years, but you can only now see the impact. Last year, more solar energy was installed worldwide than fossil. The price for solar will drop so much that all coal companies will be out of business by 2025.
With cheap electricity comes cheap and abundant water. Desalination now only needs 2kWh per cubic meter. We don't have scarce water in most places, we only have scarce drinking water. Imagine what will be possible if anyone can have as much clean water as he wants, for nearly no cost.
Health: There will be companies that will build a medical device (called the "Tricorder" from Star Trek) that works with your phone, which takes your retina scan, your blood sample and you breathe into it. It then analyses 54 biomarkers that will identify nearly any disease. It will be cheap, so in a few years everyone on this planet will have access to world class medicine, nearly for free.
3D printing: The price of the cheapest 3D printer came down from $18,000 to $400 within 10 years. In the same time, it became 100 times faster. All major shoe companies started 3D printing shoes. Spare airplane parts are already 3D printed in remote airports. The space station now has a printer that eliminates the need for the large number of spare parts they used to have in the past.
At the end of this year, new smart phones will have 3D scanning possibilities. You can then 3D scan your feet and print your perfect shoe at home. In China, they already 3D printed a complete 6-storey office building. By 2027, 10% of everything that's being produced will be 3D printed.
Business Opportunities: If you think of a niche you want to go in, ask yourself: "in the future, do you think we will have that?" and if the answer is yes, how can you make that happen sooner? If it doesn't work with your phone, forget the idea. And any idea designed for success in the 20th century is doomed in to failure in the 21st century.
Work: 70-80% of jobs will disappear in the next 20 years. There will be a lot of new jobs, but it is not clear if there will be enough new jobs in such a small time.
Agriculture: There will be a $100 agricultural robot in the future. Farmers in 3rd world countries can then become managers of their field instead of working all days on their fields. Agroponics will need much less water. The first Petri dish produced veal is now available and will be cheaper than cow-produced veal in 2018. Right now, 30% of all agricultural surfaces is used for cows. Imagine if we don't need that space anymore. There are several startups that will bring insect protein to the market shortly. It contains more protein than meat. It will be labeled as "alternative protein source" (because most people still reject the idea of eating insects).
There is an app called "moodies" which can already tell in which mood you are. Until 2020 there will be apps that can tell by your facial expressions if you are lying. Imagine a political debate where it's being displayed when they are telling the truth and when not.
Bitcoin will become mainstream this year and might even become the default reserve currency.
Longevity: Right now, the average life span increases by 3 months per year. Four years ago, the life span used to be 79 years, now it's 80 years. The increase itself is increasing and by 2036, there will be more than one year increase per year. So we all might live for a long long time, probably way more than 100.
Education: The cheapest smart phones are already at $10 in Africa and Asia. Until 2020, 70% of all humans will own a smart phone. That means, everyone has the same access to world class education.
Robert M. Goldman MD, PhD, DO, FAASP
www.DrBobGoldman.com
World Chairman-International Medical Commission
Co-Founder & Chairman of the Board-A4M
Founder & Chairman-International Sports Hall of Fame
Co-Founder & Chairman-World Academy of Anti-Aging Medicine
President Emeritus-National Academy of Sports Medicine (NASM)
Chairman-U.S. Sports Academy’s Board of Visitors
FREE Health Longevity info newsletter at: www.WorldHealth.net
Governance I Risk I Assurance
7 年Great thought provoking article and inspiration for those who are courageous enough to boldly go where no man has gone before...incrementally...
President/CEO
7 年Dr. Goldman, Your article is certainly thought provoking to many. However, AI as you mentioned in your article has been discussed and researched for decades. Many, if not all of the companies who perform the R&D on AI devices will sale the technology to third parties resulting in basically no control over who accesses and who doesnt have access to AI. In the US, the largest expenditure of our national budget and debt is allocated for the DoD...many who have never been in a life death situation be it military, LE, PMCs, etc. argue limits or caps should be placed on AI due to the landscape of future warfare. However, the DoD is investing billions into universities such as University of Texas developing AI which actually could be placed in active engagements as of now...The flying drones which any of us can purchase at a electronics store and most of us think are really cool...it's happening now that engineers/coding can be set into these drones in which not 1 but literally 50-100-500 of these can be armed with different weapons to surveillance technologies, etc in which each drone swarm or pack individually learn or gain AI simply by being exposed to other like coded machines...with each one not only knowing via GPS of place but also time as each drone knows to stay in a uniformed pattern never running into each other...the drones in the front relay info to the drones following and vice versa which they are teaching each other more and more than what was initially programmed...I was fortunate enough to see a live demonstration of 50 drones take off simultaneously, all perfectly spaced from one another...they were provided a well hidden mobile target amongst "friendly" non-combatants---using the technology of FLIR, and other low to no light technologies available to public this swarm of drones acted as a swarm of angry yellow jackets or hornets for the unlucky person who stumbles across one of their nests and the hive erupts to defend itself attacking viciously anyone or thing the first hornets catch and sting..releasing phermones and other chemicals which provide the swarm their target as hundreds will attack a human an animal etc akin to a heat seeking missle targeting a mobile vehicle or a specific gps coordinate...these swarms of drones were not seeking a human luckily...only a helium filled ballon attached to a car's antenna..once the driver of the car recognized the swarm had found him without any heat sensors being used only several basic pre-loaded paramaters the entire swarm of drones was able to find the car in a parking deck..as the car begin moving very evasively doing all it could to cause the drones to crash into one another or become trapped...short of having a 1000ft high net around the city the ballon would be found...it was interesting to know only basic info was entered and the drones were able to transmit critical data back and forth constantly during flight even when they did become separated they always regained formation until they had in essence surrounded the moving vehicle as the swarm flew in as fighter pilots would until the car and ballon had no where to go forward..reverse...left or right was met with the self learning drone swarm which within seconds swooped down and w the blades of their quadcopters burst the ballon...mission complete--no collaterl damage--no PTSD for the drones and they quickly elevated in altitude and were headed back to "the nest"...just as yellow jackets or hornets would do (which I know first hand unfortunately with a near by swimming pool being my saving grace yet was still stung more than 20 times...no time for the hornets to devise a plan or be concerned at the possibility of me destroying or killing many more than stung me...same with the drones....even if in combat many were shot at they had built in programming to detect and avoid...even if 20-30 were shot down the shere volume of drones overwhelmed the ability of the forces on the ground to think fast enough to avoid defeat...this is an ethical battle for other's to debate as it relates to combat...however, they will be used as swarms I guarantee that...last example for combat...if send 300-500 to attack an enemy ship at sea or their OCC deep in a jungle...the ship can not fire enough weapons, munitions to disable a large swarm...for use in our everyday lives AI may be less accepting for many facts...life and death seldom is the underlying justification sadly....money is what will control what is allowed, what is persecuted and given negative press...as we both know, knowing each other for more than 2 decades we havehad a front row seat and many times have been in the middle of pushing forward for the betterment of the man-kind as great strides have been accomplished yet we both have also had front row seats and been in the middle of the battles where equally egregious attacks have taken place against those who dared to hold their ground, not surrender the position which we knew was correct only to be persecuted, chastised, attacked bc we dared to care more about the patient's health than about the profit of insurance companies, drug companies, even the money which the regulatory agencies "pocket" without any checks and balances occurring holding these people accountable...the loss of money to the "establishment" will be the largest obstacle...it is occuring today...it occurred in 2016 with the unprecedented concerted attacks on compounding pharmacies, the doctors who depend on these companies and the hundreds of thousands if not millions of patients whom had their therapies disrupted, their health and welfare placed at risks bc of money being the focus point not patient health or safety as they falsely hide behind....I can rpovide data to substantiate these facts and hope to speak to the congress at A4m and the US Congress about this issue.... Until these entities are under control AI used for patient welfare and the good of all will be stymied and that is a fact. I do agree with your premise however work must be done by those who have been on the front lines such as myself...My war-chest needs replenishing before I take on that fight again unless others are willing to contribute to the cause...if people are exxcited about your article then I hope they will support me and my company as we aggressively move forward, never retreating to assure we as a people improve healthcare for all.
Retired and back to school
8 年Dr. Goldman, are you the real author of this post? I have seen the exact same post in several other places, including LinkedIn, published by different people. Please confirm this is originally written by you, or just either remove it or add the name of the actual author. You can see the original post by Udo Gollub on FB here: https://www.facebook.com/udo.gollub/posts/10207978845381135 Another post on LinkedIn here by SHAILESH MODI: https://www.dhirubhai.net/pulse/changing-times-shailesh-modi There are several other places where this post is published under different names, which you can verify through a simple google search.
Managing Director at Conference Technology Enhancements
8 年Excellent summation Dr Bob!