A more forensic look at QLD price volatility on Sat 14th Jan 2017
Back late on Saturday 14th January when I posted this preliminary article, I used the term “sizzling Saturday” to describe the day for a variety of reasons – first was the peak temperature that drove high demand levels (preceding this new all-time record) but then, related to that, was some pretty remarkable volatility.
Since that time, there’s been much said about the volatility across a variety of medium (including in person), but unfortunately we have to wait some weeks for the more official reports from the AER into the volatility – hence I thought it worthwhile to invest some time over the weekend to put this more forensic review together.
(A) Summing up price outcomes on the day
The following chart from NEM-Review sums up the trend of prices over the three-day period – Friday 13th, Saturday 14th and Sunday 15th January (the image taken from the animation below):
On that day (Saturday 14th January) were 14 Trading Periods where the QLD price settled above $1000/MWh – as listed in the table below for ease of reference:
As noted in the table, the AER report, when it is published here (they say “by 14th March”) will only be on the four >$5,000/MWh spikes, and will be particularly focused on the “did anyone break the rules?” question.
We also expect that AEMO will publish a report on the day here – though again this is also a work in progress.
In the meantime, the following analysis might be of some assistance to a range of people…
(B) Animation - and more...
Refer the full article on WattClarity here for more detail:
… form is temporary, class is permanent.
7 年Did anyone break the rules? It is amazing that we have to ask this question of Government owned generators.