No More Apples: Global Food Crisis and Climate Mitigation

An apple a day keeps the doctor away. I am certain that you have heard of this one before. There is also a proverb in Turkish that I enjoy, ‘A single cup of coffee is remembered for 40 years.’ It’s quite difficult to imagine a time when apples or coffee did not exist, so it is perfectly natural that we have created phrases around the inseparable parts of our everyday life.

Nonetheless, apple yields are falling in Wisconsin. One local farmer even says that producing apples in the state for over two decades, she has “never seen (apples) do this.” The average yield for the state is now below half of what it used to be. Abnormal climate conditions such as heavy frost in the spring, heavy rain, heavy heat— factors that are outside farmers’ control –are costing them their livelihood.

As for coffee? When frost and flooding hit Brazil last year, coffee prices shot up by 70%. Similarly, coffee production in Costa Rica and other Global South countries is taking devastating hits.

And these are just some of the basic needs of life—not even mentioning luxuries like wine, champagne, or mustard. ?But overall, it’s becoming harder and harder to grow or produce anything.

Notice the common thread in these tales of misfortune?

The cusp of a Global Food Crisis

These may just be occasional delicacies to some, but they have the potential to feed millions of households in underprivileged nations where agriculture and livestock is the only source of income.

This is occurring at a particularly difficult time for billions around the world. The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations has warned that the world is at ‘serious risk’ of a global food-access crisis. What progress we have achieved, over the years in battling global hunger, we are at risk of losing it all.

Supply chain disruptions brought on by COVID were already straining food stocks, but the war in Ukraine was really the straw that broke the camel’s back. Russia and Ukraine account for nearly a quarter of global wheat exports, 57% of sunflower seed oil exports and 14% of corn. Ukraine alone grows enough food to feed 400 million people, and extensive diplomatic efforts have been particularly focused on the port of Odessa, without a resolution 50 million people will be facing hunger. A deal was eventually reached between Russia and Ukraine to release the grain, but complications of the conflict still have the potential to derail attempts. As the war continues, it is becoming increasingly difficult to access wheat or corn, which are both essential items in a country’s nutritive stock. Vulnerable economies are beginning to ban exports of key products with over 30 countries having introduced export bans on one or more products since the conflict has begun.

But what’s making a real dent in our ability to feed people is the ever-worsening climate conditions, particularly in nations with limited economic capabilities. When extreme heatwaves dried all the crops, the Indian government imposed a ban on wheat exports, which they have recently expanded to wheat flour and other related products. Additionally, global chickpea production is expected to fall by 20% this year, again due to extreme climate conditions.

NASA estimates that the average global crop yields for maize, or corn, may fall by 24% by the late century, if we stay on the current climate pathway (which, if we do, corn may be the least of all our worries.)

By continuing with our climate-damaging activities, we are adding fuel to the fire of food insecurity.

Official numbers show that over 820 million people were situated along hunger lines in 2021. We can take East Africa as an example, where droughts are reaching historic levels and 28 million people are facing extreme hunger.

Almost a third of the global food production goes to waste every year. In developed economies, this comes from over-shopping, or letting food spoil before consumption. In underprivileged countries, this happens on the field, due to poor conditions of storage or logistics. The food that goes to waste, is produced at a great expense. According to the World Food Programme, if we were to track the emissions from the production of all the wasted food, the number would sit closely behind U.S. and China as the third biggest emitter in the world.

I have previously spoken of the impact that meat production has on climate. Cutting meat consumption is crucial for a similar reason: some developing countries rely on meat production for livelihood, whereas many ‘rich’ countries are consuming it in excessive numbers, thereby increasing emissions. Clearly, where meat is needed and where meat is consumed, are two very different matters.

Climate mitigation and hunger

We are walking on a tight rope, which is getting tighter even as we speak.

To ensure food security across the globe, we must rethink how we produce and distribute food, but more importantly, we must actively work to limit our negative impact on the planet.

With fast and prominent decarbonization roadmaps, we can ensure the safety of farmers and crops in underprivileged countries and avoid food protectionism on an international scale. However, we are still excruciatingly slow in our climate progress: recently, the U.S. Supreme Court shut down President Joe Biden’s plan to execute a coal phase-out on a federal level. In the UK, The Climate Change Committee released a report, stating that the government was failing to enact the policies needed to reach the net-zero targets.

The urgency does not mean that the process will be smooth or without obstacles. For example, Dutch farmers have been protesting the government’s transformative policies that require them to use less fertilizer and cut down on livestock that causes larger emissions. We must work collectively towards a new way of living, although it may require sacrifices from us all.

If I could impose a grammatical rule on climate discussions, it would be that we solely use obligation clauses such as, “We must decarbonize. We must cut down on meat production. We must find ways to feed our growing population through sustainable means.”

We must, we must, we must. Or else, every aspect of our survival—food, health, housing—will fall into crisis.