As Moore's Law fades away, what are we left with to predict the future? Noble's Law
David Noble
Founding & Managing Director, The Peter J. Werth Institute for Entrepreneurship & Innovation
Everyone want's to live forever. Ideas come and go. Carver Mead coined the term Moore's law. It changed in meaning over time a little bit, but essentially it meant that processor performance would double every two years, while the chip size would halve in the same time. Named after the head of Intel Gordon Moore, the phrase came to be synonymous with hardware technological change through innovation.
Moore's Law can not be infinite. Recently, I have heard a number of different commenters discuss the end of Moore's Law. Specifically, the discussion centered around the fact that people in the technology area could accurately predict the future, i.e. hand held computers, wearables, etc. They were complaining that they were no longer able to see into the future as Moore's Law disappeared. I fundamentally disagree with this statement, while asserting that they are correct at the same time.
Many of the tech crowd that are still immersed in the old line of thinking are unable to see the future because they have been outpaced by technological innovation. The future now exists in data. Noble's Law says that we will have 100% increases in our analytics capabilities every two years for the foreseeable future. This will continue beyond human limitations as deep learning, AI, and Augmented Reality become reality. AI does not replace data analysis, it changes it.
Despite some contentions (Hyun Chu, Wired), Big Data is not dead. Rather, it is in it's infancy. It is so early on in the life cycle that the role data will play in business is only being dreamt of at this point. We are still developing the tools that will begin to allow us to understand what the data says...we are building tools that will allow us to view data in different ways...we are just beginning to learn how to check whether the data is accurate or not. This is the beginning my friends.
To this point, we have not truly begun to collect data with particular questions in mind. As we become more proficient at this, the value from the data will grow. The most innovative companies in the world are building companies that are centered around ever increasing data flows. We see the inherent value of this, but very few companies are even beginning to unlock that data.
NOBLE'S LAW: Every two years we will see a 100% increase in our ability to analyze data.
Founding & Managing Director, The Peter J. Werth Institute for Entrepreneurship & Innovation
8 年It's crazy. You can understand very broadly where we are going and some big picture implications, but the actual details and mechanics are being reinvented daily.
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