Moore's Law is not End yet. It will continue through innovation in process, packaging, and architecture.

In 1965, Intel co-founder Gordon Moore predicted that the number of transistors on a chip would double roughly every two years, with a minimal rise in cost. This prediction became known as Moore’s Law. The article was first time published in Electronics magazine, and he predicted a very bright future for semiconductor chips and?paved the way for companies to make faster, smaller, and more affordable transistors for over 50 years—setting the pace for the modern digital revolution. ?The more transistors or components on a device, the cost per device is reduced while the performance per device is increased. This so-called “doubling effect” has resulted in faster, cheaper, and more power-efficient computer chips. The number of transistors per chip has increased from 50 to almost?50 billion. Intel's 4004, today's 14-nanometer processor performance is now 3500 times higher. The performance number 50 is improved to 90,000 times and the price per transistor has fallen by over 60,000 times. The bottom mode of technology had progressed at the same rate. The cars will go almost 300,000 mph. Get over 2,000,000 miles per gallon and cost only four cents.

For over 40 years, Intel engineers have continually innovated to squeeze more and more transistors onto ever-smaller chips and maintain the pace of Moore’s Law. Intel is determined to maintain Moore’s Law as always has, through innovation – innovation in process, in packaging, and in architecture.

Moore’s Law has direct impact on the progress of computing power. What this means specifically, is that transistors in integrated circuits have become faster. This helped advancements in digital electronics, such as the reduction in quality-adjusted microprocessor prices, the increase in memory capacity (RAM and flash), the improvement of sensors, and even the number and size of pixels in digital cameras.

In Gordon Moore own words ?“No other technology than I can identify has made progress at that race, nor has any had such a profound effect on society throughout the world, and certainly in 1965. It would not have predicted the kind of products would make today. They're spectacular. Moore's law has driven Intel and the industry to make the impossible possible and to completely transform computing. Create amazing experiences. The potential is there for this change to continue and then continually amazed that where things to be going. Just remember whatever has been done can be outdone”. In a 2005 interview, Moore himself stated that his law “can’t continue forever.” Quantum computing, which is advancing every day - for all intents and purposes - is not subject to many of the limitations of normal transistors.

Intel CEO Pat Gelsinger has shared:?“Technology has never been more important for humanity than it is now. Everything is becoming digital, with four key superpowers.” The superpowers –?ubiquitous computing, cloud-to-edge infrastructure, pervasive connectivity, and artificial intelligence?–?are set to transcend and transform the world.?At this time we see no end to the demand for compute, and more compute continues to push the industry for more innovation. For example, the world creates nearly 270,000 petabytes (i.e. 27 x1019) of data every day2. We are projecting that by the end of this decade, on average, all of us will have 1 petaflop (1015?floating-point operations per second) of compute and 1 petabyte of data less than 1 millisecond away3. This demand for more and more computing power is the push for the industry to maintain the pace of Moore’s Law.

Pat Gelsinger said that Intel is working on manufacturing advances such as new lithography techniques and RibbonFET architecture that would allow the company to continue to cram more transistors on each chip even as they get small enough to be measured in angstroms, or a unit equal to one hundred-millionth of a centimeter. “We aspire from today, about 100 billion transistors on a single package. By the end of the decade, a trillion transistors in a single package,”. When we consider all the various processes and advanced packaging innovations, there are numerous options available to continue to double the number of transistors per device at the cadence demanded by our customers. Moore’s Law only stops when innovation stops, and innovation continues unabated at Intel in process, packaging and architecture. We remain undeterred in our aspiration to deliver approximately 1 trillion transistors in a single device by 2030.

According to independent experts opinion, Moore’s Law is estimated to end in the incoming years. There is a limit to Moore's Law, however.?As transistors approach the size of a single atom, their functionality begins to get compromised due to the particular behavior of electrons at that scale. In a 2005 interview, Moore himself stated that his law “can't continue forever.” One of the reasons is the size of the transistor which will be unable to operate within smaller circuits at increasingly higher temperatures. This is due to the fact that cooling the transistors will require more energy than the energy that passes through the transistor itself.?

What happened when Moore’s law ends The major concern associated with the end of Moore's Law is the fact that?more computing resources and power is necessary for the continued evolution of advanced technologies, such as advanced Artificial Intelligence (AI), self-driving cars, IoT (Internet of Things) technology, and more robust cloud systems.

The current trend and the future is the semiconductor industry has managed to manufacture a chip that is?1-nanometer?(nm). That said, the 1-nm chips are still in the R&D phase, which means we’re a long way away from seeing them on the market. The 2-nm chip is coming further along, but we still don’t expect to see it for another 2-3 years. The 3-nm chip is currently the smallest size in production today.

References:

• https://www.intel.com/content/www/us/en/silicon-innovations/moores-law-technology.html
• https://www.intel.com/content/www/us/en/newsroom/opinion/moore-law-now-and-in-the-future.html
• https://dug.com/smaller-faster-stronger-1-nm-chips-by-tsmc/
• https://www.britannica.com/technology/Moores-law

Disclaimer: The opinions expressed within the content are solely the author's and independent of Intel's official channel and only for technical awareness purposes. The content cannot use for any legal or commercial purpose.

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