Monthly report of newly manufactured APIs in the pharmaceutical industry:

Monthly report of newly manufactured APIs in the pharmaceutical industry: calcium pantothenate and caffeine prices are running high, and attention is paid to investment opportunities in the oral covid-19 sector

Source: Minsheng securities time: 04-15 industry trends

In the long run, China's API industry is one of the core directions of China's new pharmaceutical manufacturing. It has the dual growth of upgrading itself and undertaking the transfer of the global industrial chain. The logic of iterative development towards higher-end innovative drugs cdmo is clear, and the moat continues to improve. Therefore, we are optimistic that the API industry will usher in rapid development in 2022.

(author: Minsheng securities / Zhou chaoze)

1. Bulk raw materials: the upstream cost of calcium pantothenate and caffeine is still rising, and the price is still in an upward trend. We should pay attention to the impact of natural gas shortage in Europe on the supply of VE

There was no significant change in the price of antibiotics this month, and penicillin industrial salt remained at the highest price in history; Calcium pantothenate in vitamins has increased 172% from the beginning of the year due to the rise in cost, the reduction in supply and the rigidity of demand. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has triggered a natural gas energy crisis in Europe, which has a significant impact on the supply of VE, VA and other European varieties with large production capacity, especially ve; The price of caffeine in antipyretic analgesics increased by nearly 200% compared with the middle of 2021, and the current price level is still high; There was no significant change in hormones and other bulk APIs, and the price of dexamethasone remained at a high level of 9750 yuan /kg.

2. Characteristic API: the price remains stable this month

The price of major cardiovascular drugs has risen since October 2021, and the price of this month has not changed from the previous month; Heparin prices rose slightly this month; The prices of penem, sulbactam and tazobactam APIs remained stable, basically unchanged from the previous month.

3. Investment suggestions:

The overall API price has not changed significantly this month, and the upstream price increases of calcium pantothenate and caffeine are still strong. It is suggested to pay attention to the subsequent changes in supply pattern, and long-term optimistic about the significant growth of China's API industry to cdmo.

1) In the short term, we suggest to pay attention to the changes in the supply pattern of calcium pantothenate, caffeine and vitamin E, such as Yifan medicine, sunway, XinHeCheng, Zhejiang medicine, brother technology, etc;

2) In the medium term, the demand for covid-19 oral drugs caused by the epidemic is a major opportunity to drive the overall volume of the API industry. It is expected to contribute profits to API enterprises in 2022, such as PLO pharmaceutical, Minova, XinHeCheng, Aoxiang pharmaceutical, etc;

3) In the long run, China's API industry is one of the core directions of China's new pharmaceutical manufacturing. It has the dual growth of upgrading itself and undertaking the transfer of the global industrial chain. The logic of iterative development towards higher-end innovative drugs cdmo is clear, and the moat continues to improve. Therefore, we are optimistic that the API industry will usher in rapid development in 2022.

4. It is suggested to focus on the target in the API sector:

PLO Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd., Stellite, Jianyou Co., Ltd., Tianyu Co., Ltd., new Norwich, brother technology, new Hecheng, etc.

Risk tips: the risk of API price fluctuation, the risk of sudden shutdown and rectification, and the risk of industrial policies.