Monthly Newsletter
Climate Overshoot Commission
Independent group of eminent global leaders who recommend strategies that could reduce risks of climate overshoot.
THE COMMISSION’S FIFTH?MEETING TOOK PLACE IN NAIROBI [1-?3 MAY]
On the 1st, 2nd and 3rd of May, Commissioners?Beinecke,?Calderon,?Campbell,?Godrej,?González,?Kalibata, Tubiana, and?Xue?joined Chair?Lamy?for the fifth meeting of the Climate Overshoot Commission. Science advisors Chris Field and Michael Obersteiner, the professional assistants of Commissioners Beinecke, Godrej, Kalibata, and Tubiana, and all members of the Commission’s Youth Engagement Group (YEG) joined as well. Chair Lamy welcomed the participants to the meeting, where among a central issue was finding a way to effectively communicate the challenges to staying within the 1.5 C warming goal set in the Paris Agreement. The meeting was also oriented toward the Commission’ proposed recommendations.?The conversations covered the pivotal matters at hand–from emissions reductions, carbon dioxide removal (CDR), adaptation, to potential sunlight reflection methods (SRM)–allowing for evolving views and analysis. The Commissioners continued to deliberate, considering diverse perspectives and additional expansion on recommendations. Ultimately, the meeting pointed toward growing consensus on key issues.
The first day started with a review and revision of the path toward the release of the Commission’s, including the final planned meeting. The Commission agreed that the risks of surpassing 1.5 C warming are high and rising. It discussed cost-benefit analysis–with the unanimous view consensus that the costs of inaction far outweigh those of rapid emission reductions–renewable energy’s decreasing costs, and the risk of emerging economies “locking-in” to fossil fuels.?
The Commission deliberated its emission reduction recommendations as complementary perspectives emerged. One issue was how to balance the needs for economic development opportunities, particularly in Africa, with that of curtailing fossil fuel extraction and use, bringing the concepts of equity and a "just transition" to the foreground. The need to explicitly confront the fossil fuel industry and the potential roles of “climate clubs, ” sectoral approaches to policy, short-lived climate forcers, and compatibility between climate and trade policy were each reviewed by attendees. Related topics during the second day of the meeting included the need for accountability, net-negative emissions, technology transfer, and the vast differentiation of resources available among high, middle, and low--income countries. Accountability, transparency, and international cooperation were highlighted as imperative for achieving the Paris Agreement goals.?
CDR appears necessary to have a chance of staging within 1.5 C warming, but how to responsibly increase its scale is not clear. The Commission emphasized that CDR should be neither perceived nor used as an escape from the need to cut emissions. Commissioners and science advisors also examined the relative merits and limitations of biological and technological CDR methods, including co-benefits and permanence. Innovation and incentivization are clearly necessary to scale CDR up. The possibility of past and present major emitters having an obligation to take-back their carbon was discussed. Attention was given to a proposal of an international fund to pay for emissions reduction and responsible removals.
Deliberations on adaptation followed multiple tracks. Finance is central, and the Commission’s proposals should build on existing mechanisms. The Commission agreed that better policy coordination, a definition of vulnerability, and assessments of capacities are required. Also important are capacity-building, the roles of local communities, climate-tolerant crops and agricultural practices, early warning systems, technology transfer, climate mobility, and sustainable cooling. Commissioners emphasized the high value of nature-based solutions that can both advance adaptation as well as prevent and/or remove carbon dioxide emissions.?
The Commission also addressed the possible role of, and need to govern, SRM. Its members unanimously emphasize that SRM should not distract from the emissions reductions and oppose its near-term use. Current knowledge is clearly insufficient for decision-making and internal governance is essential. The Commissioners recognized that developing countries’ capacity and profile in these conversations should be elevated. They also considered the importance of transparency, funding and potential coordination of research, the benefits and challenges of bottom-up versus top-down approaches to governance, compensation for possible harms, and the risks of sudden and sustained termination of SRM.
During the first day of the meeting, the Youth Engagement Group–all of which was present in Nairobi–led a session that focused on the central concerns of international power relations, putting forth suggestions on how the Commission should pursue emissions cuts and preserve carbon sinks. The YEG highlighted international power dynamics, emphasized the primacy of rapid emissions reduction, cautioned against relying on speculative technological responses to climate change, and offered a set of principles that should guide this effort, including precaution; integration of local and community-level knowledge; intergenerational, gender, and climate justice; common but differentiated responsibilities; respect for social and economic rights; and a rapid and equitable phase-out of fossil fuels. The members of the youth group also agreed that the report should address non-state actors and focus on community-level solutions.?
THE COMMISSIONERS CORNER
1. Youth Engagement Group, Nairobi, 2 May
At Nairobi, the Commission was joined by all six members of its Youth Engagement Group. Since its establishment in November 2022, its members have liaised with the Secretariat to become familiar with the issues that the Commission is addressing and the general direction of its recommendations, and have met virtually with the Commission and its Chair. At the meeting this month, the group presented its views, which it had also previously delivered as a written submission. They offered a set of guiding principles grounded in justice, highlighted international power dynamics, emphasized the primacy of rapid emissions reduction, and expressed skepticism of relying on technological responses to climate change. The group members subsequently led an exchange with the Commissioners and Science Advisors. They also met with?Generation Africa, a partnership initiative in Nairobi with a vision to strengthen the ecosystem for youth entrepreneurs in the agri-food sector, and with Allan Coredo from?FarmIT?to exchange on impacts of climate change on the agricultural sector and youth advocacy in Africa.
The members of the Youth Engagement Group are:
2. Meeting with civil society leaders, Nairobi, 2 May:?
During its meeting, the Commission met with civil society leaders from Kenya. The participants were?John Kioli, Green Africa Foundation;?Julius Mbatia, ACT Alliance;?Joseph Murabula, Kenya Climate Innovation;?Mithika Mwenda, Pan-African Climate Justice Alliance; and?George Wamukoya?- Africa Group of Negotiators Experts Support (AGNES). Throughout the meeting, various aspects related to climate change mitigation, adaptation, finance, technology transfer, and international cooperation were openly discussed. Mwenda emphasized the importance of addressing historical and current emissions, climate justice, and the need to focus on mitigation as the source of the climate crisis. Wamukoya expressed concerns about insufficient mitigation ambition and the lack of permanence in nature-based solutions (NBS). Murabala highlighted the need for finance to support both mitigation and adaptation, especially for small enterprises, and advocated for results-based financing. Kioli stressed the link between technology transfer and finance, emphasizing the need for funding for otherwise unfinanceable projects. Mbatia raised the issue of getting financing for projects with no apparent return on investment and the mismatch between farmers' needs and investor preferences. Also discussed was the importance of community-based action, private sector involvement, grassroots action, and the implementation of climate-smart agriculture– particularly the focus on post-harvest issues. The members of civil society highlighted the need for ecosystem-based adaptation and called for stronger discussions on climate empowerment and the policy-practice interface by the Commission. They acknowledged the interrelation between climate change and trade, emphasizing the need to address this relationship for sustainable development.?
3. Private Event with KEPSA - AGRA, Nairobi, 3 May:
Chair?Lamy?and Commissioners?Calderon?and?González?participated in a High-Level Panel, in partnership with AGRA & Kenya Private Sector Alliance, to discuss global strategies on climate change solutions. The panel touched on the scope, objectives, priorities, and timeline of the Climate Overshoot Commission, as well as the current key issues and gaps which the Commission is examining as it builds its recommendations. The event explored how the private sector can contribute to national and global efforts to future-proof the food and agriculture industry, and how intersectoral approaches can support reducing the risks of climate overshoot. Discussions on the Kenya Private Sector Alliance Strategy on climate change solutions were brought forth and how they align with the objectives of the Paris Agreement and the deliberations of the Climate Overshoot Commission. Identifying ways in which the food and agriculture industry can aid in accelerating the transition to a low-carbon economy and reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Questions raised included the role of innovation and technology in future-proofing the food & agriculture industry for climate change and how the private sector in Kenya may be able to leverage tools to enhance sustainability and food security. Commissioner?Calderon?gave the closing remarks, speaking on developing economies that are the most vulnerable to climate change impacts, including how technology is important across climate action such as the emerging technologies of industrial carbon dioxide removal, and implementing emissions cuts.
4. Meeting with the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Kenya, Nairobi, 4 May:
Chair?Lamy?and Commissioner?González?met with?Alfred Mutua, Kenya’s Cabinet Secretary for Foreign and Diaspora Affairs. The priority of Kenya in the coming months is the Climate Action Summit that President Ruto is organizing in Nairobi on September 4-6. It aims to result in a "Nairobi Declaration" focusing on a few priorities that would constitute the united African voice before COP28. In this context, the Overshoot Commission is seen as a welcome initiative that can give more resonance to the needs and positions of developing countries, and Africa in particular. The Cabinet Secretary asked how the Commission could be represented at the Nairobi Summit. He was very optimistic, if not offensive, about African capacities, focusing on the resources and solutions that the continent can bring to climate action (provided it has sufficient access to market financing to develop them), rather than as a recipient of international aid.
5.?Meeting with the Minister of Environment of Kenya, Nairobi, 4 May:
Chair?Lamy?and Commissioner?González?met with?Soipan Tuya, Kenya’s Cabinet Secretary of Environment, Climate Change and Forestry. Cabinet Secretary Tuya expressed interest in receiving the report before the event. The Chair assured her that the report's elements and recommendations would be shared once finalized, in order to discuss relevant messages from the report at the summit, potentially including a presentation by the Commission. There was consensus on the importance of adaptation measures. There was great interest in Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR), with the aim to monetize their Natural-Based Solutions (NBS) through global carbon markets and explore technological solutions. Pilot projects were already underway in Kenya.
6.?Meeting with Gabriela Ramos, Assistant Director General of UNESCO, Paris, 10 May:
Chair?Lamy?met in Paris with?Gabriela Ramos, Assistant Director-General for Social and Human Sciences for the UN Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO). After an update on the Commission’s progress, the two focused much of their conversation on UNESCO’s World Commission on the Ethics of Scientific Knowledge and Technology, which is undertaking a project on the ethics of climate engineering, including both large-scale CDR and SRM. Ms. Ramos informed the chair that the UNESCO body intends to deliver its recommendations this November.?
7. Meeting with Samoan ambassador to the UN, Fatumanava-o-Upolu III Dr Pa’olelei Luteru, (Chair Alliance of Small Island States), New York, 15 May:
Chair?Pascal Lamy?and Commissioner?Frances Beinecke?met with?Fatumanava-o-Upolu Luteru, Ambassador of Samoa to the UN, who leads the Alliance of Small Island States at the UN. The Ambassador noted that, for small island states, the 1.5 C goal remains the priority and the red line, since overshoot consequences are not only theoretical for atolls. The work of small island states in the UN builds on three pillars: climate, the Sustainable development Goals, and oceans. The Ambassador added that COP27 was not too ambitious, and that small island states are working towards a more ambitious agenda in COP28 where they call for a 50/50 split in climate funding between mitigation and adaptation. He finally highlighted that the debt issue, following COVID-19, is jeopardizing the capacity of SIDS to address climate change or implement SDGs.
8.?Meeting with Achim Steiner, UNDP Administrator, New York, 15 May:
Chair?Lamy?and Commissioner?Beinecke?met with?Achim Steiner, UN Development Programme (UNDP) Administrator, who was accompanied by Cassie Flynn, Strategic Advisor on Climate Change. Steiner asked if the Commission is not the opportunity to slow the consideration on speculative technologies, and to emphasize emissions reductions and a new political economy. He questioned whether CDR and SRM have genuine capacity to substantially curb climate change, are economically competitive, or are just a perpetuation of the same economic model that diverts attention from the urgency. Instead, Steiner called for a focus on fair and just solutions for all. Steiner then presented some of the issues with the current system, such as that Kenya produces 90% of its energy through clean technologies but does not receive any encouragement or further grants. He also brought up Uruguay’s successful climate bonds to incentivize carbon markets.?
9.?Meeting with Antonio Guterres, UN Secretary-General, New York, 16 March:
Chair?Lamy?and Commissioner?Beinecke?met with?Antonio Guterres, UN Secretary-General (UNSG), who was accompanied by his Chef de Cabinet Courtenay Rattray and by Anne-Sophie Cerisola, Director of the UNSG Executive Office Climate Action Team. The UNSG noted his acceleration agenda that is not only doable but necessary, including net zero emissions for industrialized countries by 2040 and for developing ones by 2050. When emerging economies are responsible for 50% of emissions, efforts by industrialized economies alone are not enough. Adaptation is not at the right level and the business model of development banks needs a change in this regard. Guterres said that the Commission is a useful voice looking into issues that are not being explored by the UN, but should still support what the UN has been building over mitigation and adaptation. The Commission fits perfectly in the global debate but needs to provide concrete ideas about de-carbonization, such as suggesting which groups should be created to build these concrete ideas, and in which sectors.?
10.?Meeting with Guy Ryder, UN Under-Secretary-General for Policy, New York, 16 May:
Chair?Lamy?and Commissioner?Beinecke?met with?Guy Ryder, UN Under-Secretary-General for Policy, who was accompanied by Arun Jacob, Senior Adviser at the UN Secretary General’s Executive Office Climate Action Team. Ryder asked about the message in the title “overshoot” of the Commission, hoping it does not mean that the 1.5 C goal is questioned, to which the Chair responded that it is about managing and reducing the associated risks. Ryder added that the solution remains mitigation, ending fossil fuels, and investing in renewable energy. More importantly, the UNSG will soon publish a policy brief on the reform of the international financial architecture, with very bold recommendations.
11.?Meeting with Selwin Hart, Special Adviser to the UNSG on Climate Action and Just Transition, New York, 16 May:
Chair?Lamy?met with?Selwin Hart, Special Adviser to the UNSG on Climate Action and Just Transition. He was accompanied by Anne-Sophie Cerisola, Director of the UNSG Executive Office Climate Action Team, Arun Jacob and Safiatou Alzouma, Senior Energy Programme Manager. After the introduction of the Chair, Selwin Hart responded that the Commission’s report comes at a critical moment given the divide among and lack of cooperation by member states. Ahead of COP28, it is important that the Commission highlights that there are related issues such as efficiency and cost, and that nothing is not a silver bullet. There is a need for research in innovation, but currently the only solution is mitigation, with renewables and energy efficiency as priorities. The sequencing of scientific research and new governance frameworks of SRM is also important. Hart said that there is a growing polarization between North and South, and there is importance in equity in energy transition, with developing countries needing urgent access to finances, critical minerals and technology.
12.?Meeting with Masood Ahmed, president of the Center for Global Development, Washington DC, 17 May:
Chair?Lamy?met with?Masood Ahmed, president of the Center for Global Development (CGD), who was accompanied by Clemence Landers and Mark Plant, Senior Policy Fellows. After a presentation of Chair Lamy of where the Commission stands in its deliberations ahead of the report launch, Ahmed focused on the role of multilateral development banks in adaptation and climate funding, which needs to be larger and reoriented to work with the private sector. The CGD is working on a report to be published at the end of June calling for a change to make the banks’ offers more attractive to borrowers, to work collectively, and to push borrowers to make funding efforts and to accept increased prices. The conversation then focused on how industrialized countries are insufficiently supporting adaptation and mitigation efforts, while developing economies need such support more than ever.
13.?Meeting with Senator Sheldon Whitehouse, Washington DC, 17 May:
Chair?Lamy?met with Senator?Sheldon Whitehouse?(D-Rhode Island), who was accompanied by Dan Dudis, Majority Staff Director. After a presentation of the Commission by Chair Lamy, the exchange focused on the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism. The Senator then further called for a methane agreement, one with global enforcement. He also talked about the carbon tariffs and their establishment, as well as the lobbying of the fossil fuel industry against the Green Climate Fund in the US.?
14.?Commission Breakfast at the Atlantic Council, Washington DC, 19 May:
Chair?Lamy?and Commissioner?Beinecke?represented the Climate Overshoot Commission at a breakfast hosted by the?Atlantic Center’s Geotech Center. The event was introduced and moderated by Lloyd Whitman, Senior Director of the Geotech Center. Chair Lamy introduced the rationale behind the Commission, its history and membership, as well as the challenges related to the responses to climate change in terms of emissions reductions, adaptation, CDR and SRM. He reminded that the Commission also works to lower the tensions between industrialized and developing countries, and to bring in the voices and concerns of the Global South. Commissioner Beinecke went deeper into the Commission’s thinking , noting that it is not promoting SRM. She discussed adaptation financing, CDR, market incentivizing for avoiding emissions ahead of later removal, the careful approach to the governance and research of SRM, and phasing out of fossil fuels.
15.?Meeting with Inger Andersen, UNEP Executive Director,?22 May:
Chair?Lamy?met with?Inger Andersen, Executive Director of the UN Environment Programme (UNEP). Andersen concurred with the Commission’s insistence that rapid reductions of greenhouse gas emissions are the only solution to climate change and supported its interest in climate finance, especially for adaptation. She and Chair Lamy exchanged views on the advantages, risks, limitations, and possible roles of technical and biological CDR, including marine methods. The motivation by and reaction to UNEP’s recent scientific report on SRM, One Atmosphere, was of particular interest to the Commission. Andersen emphasized UNEP’s wide mandate to keep other UN institutions informed about all aspects of environmental issues.?
领英推荐
THE COMMISSIONERS' MEDIA ENGAGEMENTS
“Should Africa be asked to cut back emissions?”, Chair?Lamy?interview with CNBC Africa, 2 May?
The interview is available?here.
“Commodity price & climate's impact on African businesses”, Commissioner?Gonzalez’s?interview with CNBC Africa, 3 May
The interview is available?here.
“Let’s Build A Coherent Approach Against Risks Linked To Climate Overshoot”, Commissioner?Kalibata’s?Op-Ed in The Star (Kenya), 5 may
The opinion column is available?here.?
“Let’s Build A Coherent Approach Against Risks Linked To Climate Overshoot”, Commissioner?Kalibata’s?Op-Ed in CapitalFM (Kenya), 5 May
The opinion column is available?here.?
“Paris Agreement: Climate Change Stakeholders Warn Against Continued Global Warming”, Chair?Lamy, Commissioners?Gonzalez?and?Calderon?cited in TUKO.co.ke (Kenya), 6 May
The article is available?here.?
“Climate change global risks and ambitions to tackle them”, Commissioner?Gonzalez?interview with CGTN Africa, 13 May
The interview is available?here.?
NEWS &?REPORTS OF THE MONTH
REPORTS OF THE MONTH
“WMO Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update (Target years: 2023-2027)” by the World Meteorological Organization:?The Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update is issued annually by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). It provides a synthesis of global predictions for the period 2023-2027. The annual average global global warming for each year between 2023 and 2027 is predicted to be between 1.1°C and 1.8°C. The chance of it exceeding 1.5°C for at least one year is more likely than not (roughly 67%), while it is unlikely that the five-year average will exceed this threshold.?
The report is available?here.?
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“A Breakthrough for People and Planet” by The High-Level Advisory Board on Effective Multilateralism:?Appointed by the UNSG, this Board released a report with many recommendations for global governance that will inform the upcoming Summit of the Future in 2024. The Board’s extensive consultations resulted in a clear call for a multilateral system that is people- and planet-centered, delivering tangible results for all while driving a circular, sustainable global economy. Of particular relevance to the work of the Climate Overshoot Commission, it calls for "A forum on the governance of climate-altering technologies"?that is, CDR and SRM.?
The report is available?here.?
NEWS OF THE MONTH
AGRA President Kalibata To Sit On COP28 President’s Advisory Committee On Climate: The COP28, which will be hosted by the United Arab Emirates at the end of the year, will see nations, organizations, and stakeholders converge from around the globe to address the challenges of climate change. As a member of the COP28 President’s Advisory Committee, Kalibata–a member of the Climate Overshoot Commission–will contribute to the development and implementation of strategies to mitigate climate change. She will help ensure that the voices and needs of farmers and businesses are heard and incorporated into global climate policies.?
The article is available?here.?
“Carbon Management”: Opportunities and risks for ambitious climate policy:?Climate policy in the European Union and Germany changed significantly with the adoption of net-zero emissions targets. A key development is the growing importance of carbon management, an umbrella term that includes CDR. This report emphasizes the need to differentiate among the various carbon management approaches and to identify their relation to residual and hard-to-abate emissions.Current policy and legislative processes should ensure that carbon management does not delay the phase-out of fossil fuels.?
The article is available?here.?
OVERSHOOT PRESS ARTICLES YOU NEED TO KNOW?
“Spain, Sweden and Belgium: The European countries setting new wind and solar records”, EuroNews, 18 May
The article is available?here.?
“Can carbon removal become a trillion-dollar business?”, Economist (U.S.), 21 May
The article is available?here.?
“Solar Geoengineering Is Coming. It’s Time to Regulate It”,?Foreign Policy, 23 May?
The article is available?here.?
“In the Bahamas, a Constant Race to Adapt to Climate Change”, New York Times (U.S.), 24 May?
The article is available?here.?
“Climate Overshoot - Is it possible and what are the consequences of exceeding a given global mean temperature threshold and then bringing warming back down again?”, Foresight - CMCC (Italy), 17 May
The article is available?here.?
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