Monthly Economic Update February 2024
Chris Polimeni, MBA presents:
Monthly Economic Update February 2024
As a financial advisor, I want to share with you some of the key economic developments that occurred in the last month. Here are some of the highlights:
U.S. job growth accelerated in January, likely as a resilient economy and strong worker productivity encouraged businesses to hire and retain more employees, a trend that could keep the economy from a recession this year, source Reuters 2/2/2024.
Nonfarm payrolls increased by 353,000 jobs last month, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics said on Friday. Data for December was revised higher to show 333,000 jobs added instead of 216,000 as previously reported. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast payrolls increasing 180,000.
Employment gains remain well above the roughly 100,000 jobs per month needed to keep up with growth in the working age population. Nonetheless, labor market momentum has slowed from the robust pace in 2022 because of hefty interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve. Job gains are more than sufficient to sustain the economy through strong consumer spending, source Reuters 2/2/2024.
Annual wage growth is well above its pre-pandemic average and the 3.0% to 3.5% range that most policy makers view as consistent with the U.S. central bank's 2% inflation target, supporting views that March is probably too early for the Fed to start cutting rates, source Reuters 2/2/2024.
The unemployment rate was at 3.7% in January. January's unemployment rate is not directly comparable to December's 3.7% rate. New population estimates were incorporated into the household survey, from which the unemployment rate is derived. The Fed left interest rates unchanged on Wednesday, but Chair Jerome Powell offered a sweeping endorsement of the economy's strength, telling reporters that interest rates had peaked and would move lower in coming months, source Reuters 2/2/2024.
Most economists are dismissive of recent high-profile layoffs including 12,000 job cuts announced by United Parcel Service (UPS) this week, arguing that the focus should be on worker productivity, which has exceeded a 3% annualized growth pace for three straight quarters and cooling labor costs.
Employers are generally wary of sending workers home following difficulties finding labor during and after the COVID-19 pandemic. But some companies, which enjoyed a boom in business during the pandemic, are laying off workers as conditions return to normal.
Financial markets have dialed back their expectations of a rate cut in March and now expect the central bank to start lowering borrowing costs in May, according to CME Group's FedWatch Tool. Since March 2022, the Fed has raised its policy rate by 525 basis points to the current 5.25% to 5.50% range, source Reuters 2/2/2024.
According to Gene Munster, managing partner at Deepwater Asset Management, the tech industry is expected to experience a bull market for the next three to five years, fueled by the rise of artificial intelligence. Munster believes that this is not about interest rates, but rather a fundamental shift in productivity. He predicts that 2024 will be the dawn of a years-long bull market in tech, source MSN.com 1/8/2024.
It’s worth noting that Munster’s view is echoed by others on Wall Street, who have also called for a long-running bull market to take off in the tech sector.
An increase in productivity can extend a bull market because it can lead to higher corporate profits, which can translate into rising stock prices. When businesses are able to pull in more revenue, create jobs, and invest in new technologies, the economy can grow, and the longer the bull market can run.
U.S. consumer prices increased more than expected in December as rents maintained their upward trend, which could delay a much-anticipated interest rate cut in March from the Federal Reserve, source Reuters 1/11/2024.
The consumer price index rose 0.3% last month after nudging up 0.1% in November, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics said on Thursday. The cost of shelter accounted for more than half of the increase in the CPI.
In the 12 months through December, the CPI rose 3.4% after increasing 3.1% in November. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the CPI gaining 0.2% on the month and climbing 3.2% on a year-on-year basis.
Since slowing to an annual increase of 3.0% last June, further progress towards lower consumer inflation has been limited by persistently high rents. The annual increase in consumer prices has cooled from a peak of 9.1% in June 2022, source Reuters 1/11/2024.
The report followed news last Friday that the economy added 216,000 jobs in November, with annual wage growth picking up. Excluding the volatile food and energy components, the CPI rose 0.3% last month after increasing 0.3% in November. The so-called core CPI advanced 3.9% on a year-on-year basis in December after rising 4.0% in November.
Though consumer prices remain elevated, measures tracked by the U.S. central bank for its 2% inflation target improved significantly through much of 2023, with the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index posting its first monthly decline in more than 3-1/2 years in November, source Reuters 1/11/2024.
Early on Thursday, financial markets saw a roughly 69% chance of a rate cut at the Fed's March 19-20 policy meeting, according to CME Group's FedWatch Tool. The Fed has hiked its policy rate by 525 basis points to the current 5.25%-5.50% range since March 2022.
With the resilient labor market keeping wage growth elevated, some economists expect a rate cut in May or June. The labor market is easing, but only gradually as layoffs remain low by historical norms, source Reuters 1/11/2024.
TIP OF THE MONTH
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According to a recent survey by the University of Michigan, consumer sentiment in the United States has improved significantly in the past few months. The survey shows that the index tracking consumer sentiment has surged more than 28% since November 2023, which is the fastest two-month turnabout since March 1991. This is a positive sign for the US economy, as consumer spending drives the economy, source Axios 1/21/2024.
This survey as well as strong retail sales and other pieces of positive economic activity, shows a strengthening US economy. This in turn has driven up interest rates over the last month. The 10-year bond interest rate on 12/26/2023 was 3.789%, on 1/21/2024 it hit 4.14%, source Yahoo Finance.
The U.S. economy grew faster than expected in the fourth quarter amid strong consumer spending and defied dire predictions of a recession in 2023 after the Federal Reserve aggressively raised interest rates, with growth for the full year coming in at 2.5%, source Reuters 1/25/2024.
Gross domestic product in the last quarter increased at a 3.3% annualized rate, the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis said on Thursday in its advance estimate of fourth-quarter GDP.
The economy grew at a 4.9% pace in the third quarter. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast GDP advancing at a 2.0% rate. Estimates ranged from a 0.8% rate to a 2.8% pace. The economy is expanding at a pace above what Fed officials regard as the non-inflationary growth rate of around 1.8%.
Growth last year accelerated from 1.9% in 2022. The economy has stunned the captains of industry and some economists who had called for a downturn since mid-2022. Part of the economy's stamina reflects labor market resilience, marked by low layoffs and strong wage gains, which are underpinning consumer spending, source Reuters 1/25/2024.
The labor Department in a separate report on Thursday said initial claims for state unemployment benefits increased 25,000 to a seasonally adjusted 214,000 for the week ended Jan. 20. Economists had forecast 200,000 claims in the latest week.
Increased government spending as well as near-zero interest rates during the COVID-19 pandemic, which allowed some corporations and households to lock in low rates, have also helped stave off a recession.
Economists had largely based their gloomy forecasts on the rapid pace at which the U.S. central bank was raising rates to dampen demand. Most have walked back their recession calls and now expect slow growth this year.
QUOTE OF THE MONTH
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The Fed, at its meeting next week, is expected to keep its policy rate unchanged at the current 5.25%-5.50% range.
With the GDP report also showing inflation pressures subsiding last quarter, the central bank is widely anticipated to start cutting rates sometime in the first half of this year. Since March 2022, the Fed has raised its benchmark overnight rate by 525 basis points, source Reuters 1/25/2024.
US consumer confidence increased in January to the highest level since the end of 2021 as Americans grew more upbeat about the economy and the job market amid more sanguine views about inflation.
The Conference Board’s gauge of sentiment increased to 114.8 from a revised 108 a month earlier, data published Tuesday showed. The January figure matched the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey.
A gauge of current conditions surged to the highest since March 2020. The measure of expectations rose to a six-month high. Consumers expected the inflation rate to average 5.2% in the next 12 months, the lowest level since March 2020, source MSN.com 1/30/2024.
The third-straight monthly increase in confidence suggests at least some of the momentum in household spending late last year will endure. Resilient demand, accompanied by a healthy job market and improved inflation expectations, has the potential of keeping the economy on its expansion path.
At the end of the day, the February 2024 Economic Update offers many reasons for investors to be optimistic. Many of the negative things that took the market down are seemingly now in the rear view mirror. By staying informed and making smart investment decisions, there are plenty of opportunities to grow wealth and achieve financial goals.
As a financial advisor, I recommend that you diversify your portfolio across different asset classes, regions, and sectors, and adjust your risk exposure according to your goals and preferences. Please contact me if you have any questions or concerns about your financial situation or plan.
Many of the views and opinions included herein may or may not be shared by Western International Securities and or its registered representative and should not be construed as investment advice.
I'll bring you a recap of the February developments in the economy and markets at the top of March.
Between now and then, please feel free to call me or email me at number or e-mail listed below.
You can also schedule appointments directly to my electronic calendar using the appointments hyperlink in my signature file below.
Sincerely,
Chris W. Polimeni, MBA
Financial Advisor
Branch Manager
Western International Securities
Member FINRA/SIPC
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19200 Von Karman Ave. Suite 600
Irvine, CA 92612
Phone: 800-874-0768
Fax: 949-222-5704
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Website: https://chrispolimeni.com
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