Month # 9 : Birth of a New Normal

Mother Earth is upbeat “You caused a pause”. 

Father Time is skeptical “Greed has not gone. Fear is still lurking”. 

The equity markets are getting fueled by easy and low-cost financing from Central Banks world-wide. From a low in Mar 20, it has taken exactly 9 months to climb all time high index levels. https://www.livemint.com/opinion/columns/the-anatomy-of-a-stock-market-bubble-staring-india-in-the-face-11609081382394.html To be noted that the rise is not uniform for firms – bigger ones, naturally benefited more.

Mother Earth is gleeful “If somebody wants money, she can always cash out quicker?”

With the Supreme Court postponing the loan moratorium judgement to New Year 2021, all borrowers and lenders get valuable breathing space. Lenders, especially retail institutions, get that much more time to sit with borrowers and review individual plans to tide over the economic impact caused by the pandemic.  https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/economy/sc-hearing-on-loan-moratorium-live-updates-apex-court-to-resume-hearing-petitions-seeking-interest-waiver-6237421.html

Why is this important? Although estimates of impacted borrowers will vary based on different factors, there is agreement around the need to rehabilitate impacted individuals and small business. Even as it is clear, that between 85-95 out of 100 borrowers, have expressed confidence-about-the-future, by servicing their past obligations.  https://www.business-standard.com/article/finance/retail-credit-has-experienced-an-increase-in-serious-delinquencies-report-120122300684_1.html

Mother Earth is not flustered “More online classes. More time for recuperation. Everyone’s reading, cooking, exercising a lot more than before”.

Father Time is clear “And praying too – check the rush for darshan at  churches, mosques, temples. And the donations too. “

But there is movement.

Air traffic is moving month on month – year-on-year drop is only to be expected. https://www.businesstoday.in/sectors/aviation/domestic-air-passenger-traffic-drops-51-in-november-dgca/story/425368.html

The world’s largest employer, Indian Railways has already aligned their services to the freight demand. Doing much better in 2020-21 vs. 2019-20. “The goods will be ready, when the population want them – and where they want, the individual choices are served”.  https://www.cmie.com/kommon/bin/sr.php?kall=warticle&dt=2020-12-18%2013:16:35&msec=016

Even as consumers are going Atma Nirbhar to complete their daily duties and activities, not waiting for Public Transport systems to open up. Check increase in petrol consumption  https://www.newindianexpress.com/business/2020/dec/01/diesel-sales-fall-7-per-centin-november-petrol-sales-up-5-per-cent-2230441.html

Thus, overall outlook is upbeat. With fiscal 2020-21 economy expected to remain flat / low-drop rather than the steep-drop that everyone expected during the first trimester of Apr-Jun 20. https://www.businesstoday.in/current/economy-politics/gdp-growth-to-turn-positive-in-q3-rbi-analysis/story/425962.html

What defines the new normal? 

1.     It an awakening in each individual, to overcome individual and collective fears, work towards “herd immunity” against the pandemic, even as vaccine roll-outs get stabilized. 

2.     Awareness among micro and small business, that each day forward is a step in their climb-back. The lost-day’s sale is as much about money – however, more so, about the confidence gained from the effort taken. 

3.     Large, private business taking ESG, CSR efforts to improve their wholistic ecosystems towards minimum levels. If profits are essential Corporate Karma, then community sustenance is Collective Dharma. 

4.     Moksha, or liberation is an awakening where each day is an inch forward from the earlier – a multi-year marathon like this, has multiple goal-posts to breast. 

5.     One of our doyens, Shri Ratan Tata, says it succinctly https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/ratan-tata-turns-83-today-his-4-point-guide-for-2021-6277051.html even as preaches the 5th paradigm https://www.hindustantimes.com/it-s-viral/happy-birthday-ratan-tata-5-insta-posts-by-the-business-tycoon-that-show-his-love-for-animals/story-SL57W6VucHDHjf2HZ4C83H.html

So, as we bid goodbye to 2020 and welcome 2021, it is both with a smile and a prayer. 

“So what if the smile is masked and the namaste is standard meet-greet practice” Mother Earth wonders.

Father Time is clear. “No New Year bashes, please. Social distance is still important – be it physically, on social media or with the community.    Break the distance with yourself, family, colleagues, neighbours.  First. Precaution is more important than being precocious”.

To the new decade, then.