Money trail of elections -Could elections impact supply of money?

Source: RBI "DBIE.org" Reserve Money statistics

Liquidity, which can be observed through reserve money, in the economy is cyclical in nature. In general, liquidity surges during the months of October and November when people tend to spend. On the other hand, liquidity depletes during the periods of July and August, possibly due to dividend distribution by companies and taxes paid by people. Another surprising insight i came across with the above analysis is that currency is circulation is increasing at a rate of 18% p.a whereas GDP is increasing at a rate of 7%.

My hypothesis is that 2019 general elections which are underway could increase money supply in the coming months. One of the approaches to validate this is by observing Reserve money also called M0. Back of the envelope calculation shows that there was a surge in Money in circulation by 1.65% in the second week of April-2018. As per RBI data, as of 29th Mar 19, 21.4 lakh crores are in circulation. Assuming GDP growth rate as 8%, the liquidity in the second week of April-19 shouldn't rise by more than 1.78%, putting the Money in Circulation roughly at 21.8 lakh crores as of 2nd week of April 2019. Anything beyond this 21.8 lakh crores, could be attributed to the elections

The upcoming few months will be interesting times as India is all set to go for general elections. There will be a lot of money in circulation for funding the election expenses. Political parties will be wooing the voters and Election commission will try to curb the luring of voters. Either its interesting to follow the money trail of elections

PS:Reserve money largely indicates money in circulation and deposits with RBI.