Monetary Policy and Semi-Annual Results Take The Center Stage
Dear readers, Welcome to the latest edition of Eye on the Markets, your weekly newsletter where we provide you with a concise summary of key developments in the financial markets over the past week. ?
Monetary Policy and Semi-Annual Results Take The Center Stage
There were very few surprises in the stock market this week. The Masi index decided to play it safe, only increasing by 0.10%, which is a good performance in the current context, as the major quarterly deadlines are approaching. Investors seem to be adopting a 'wait and see' approach, waiting for the semi-annual results to trickle in, with a deadline set for September 30th.
These results will provide operators with an opportunity to reconsider their positions. Some may consider taking profits on stocks whose growth is below expectations or whose prospects for the remainder of the year are less favorable. Others will seek to position themselves in stocks with strong performance and promising growth prospects. Banking giants will be closely watched, as will the real estate sector.
"At this stage, there is a psychological moratorium; operators are waiting for the semi-annual results of companies to see how the results and margins have behaved in order to make decisions about their positions and strategies for the months to come" explained Tahar Zerrari, Deputy CEO of Sogécapital Gestion.
Of course, the task of rebalancing the markets now falls to the central bank, which will hold its meeting next Tuesday. Analysts believe that after the Al Haouz earthquake, it can reasonably be expected that the maintenance of the key interest rate will be consolidated, given the extent of the financing needed for the reconstruction of the affected area, and this while waiting for better visibility on the state's future needs regarding the earthquake.
Inflation, after declining for five consecutive months, increased slightly in August, rising by 0.1 point to reach 5% on an annual basis, with food prices still weighing heavily. On the other hand, the looming shadow of rising oil prices and the prospect of a barrel rapidly approaching the $100 mark lead us to believe that debates about inflation will return to haunt the economic environment by the end of the year. This comes after the continued deceleration of inflation since March 2023 had somewhat reassured investors in the stock market.
Short-Term Outlook
Several factors are expected to drive the stock market by the end of the year. According to SogéCapital Gestion, "We need to wait for the draft Budget bill?2024?to see what measures have been planned for different sectors, including real estate and the banking sector. We already know that taxation has been revised, with a reform spanning several years, which has been factored into pricing."
"As for the consequences of the earthquake, it is likely that some listed sectors will benefit from the reconstruction, particularly the construction (BTP) and steel sectors. Investment efforts in Morocco will continue to focus on the construction and steel sectors. For example, reconstruction in mountainous areas will require solid foundations, which should lead to strong demand for rebar," explains the management company, which is a guest on Boursenews this week, and they also highlight the banking sector as one to watch.
Market Overview ?
Key Highlights
From a total estimated budget of MAD 120 billion over a period of five years, the program for the reconstruction of the affected regions presented to the Sovereign covers six provinces and a prefecture affected by the earthquake (Marrakech, Al Haouz, Taroudant, Chichaoua, Azilal, and Ouarzazate), targeting a population of 4.2 million inhabitants. More details. The World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF), in agreement with the Moroccan authorities, have agreed to hold their Annual Meetings as planned from October 9th to 15th in Marrakech, according to a statement released earlier this week in Washington. More details.
Macroeconomic Indicators ?
Company Spothlight
领英推荐
The Addoha group continues its expansion in sub-Saharan Africa by signing a new agreement on September 20th with the Cameroonian government. This information was confirmed by Anas Berrada, CEO of the group, responsible in particular for operations in Africa. Read more here.
Trading Portfolio
We have included Risma stock in our trading portfolio. After a generous pullback to the key zone at MAD 195, the stock has started to rebound, indicating the formation of a medium-term low point. This development suggests the beginning of a medium-term uptrend. Read more here.
Historical Operations Table?
Technical Review
On a daily scale, the price has rebounded from the previously identified support level at 11,700 points. Breaking out of the short-term bearish channel visible on the chart will be a positive signal for a sustainable bullish recovery.?
Earnings Releases
- Find here all the semi-annual results of listed companies published this week.
- Also, take a look at our Newsfeed to stay updated on market news.
Upcoming Events
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That's all for this week's recap. Stay tuned for more analyses and information on the financial markets. If you have any questions or would like to discuss specific topics in more detail, please don't hesitate to contact us.
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