Momentum in uncertainty

We’re caught on the flywheel of growing uncertainty: we are making increasingly pivotal decisions at an increasingly rapid pace, with increasingly more ambiguity. Uncertainty can be paralysing. But despite the speed and the risk and the fear, as a leader you must move forward. Choosing not to make a decision is a decision in itself.?

Let go the myth of decision making with perfect information. You want information so that you can make a decision. But most of the information will only reveal itself once you make a decision and gain momentum. Chicken and egg, egg and chicken.?

Here’s a couple of thoughts on decision making with ambiguity.?

Is the door one-way or revolving? Some decisions can very easily be reversed (eg whether to get a WeWork space for 10 people or 20). Other decisions cannot (eg launching a new product.) The vast majority of decisions can be changed if not reversed, as more information and context becomes available to you. This should be a comfort to you, and de-risk the magnitude of just moving forward.?

Is this about who you are, or what you do? The more passionately you care about something, the harder it is to separate who you are from the thing you do. When navigating difficult decisions it’s critical to distinguish between these two. Put aside ego, pride and self-doubt, and instead focus on the objective information available to you. Decision making is experimentation with the best information available to us. Sometimes we’ll have success. Sometimes we’ll learn and pivot. Neither is a reflection on your worthiness as a person.?

What’s the worst that could happen? When I’m uncertain, I often ask myself - “what's the worst that could happen?” Typically, my undefined fear is far worse than any truly plausible outcome, and putting definition to it helps de-escalate my fears. I often play that out further, and build a mitigation plan so that I’m prepared, should the worst case scenario play out. It helps me move forward with confidence.?

What’s the best case scenario?? Fight the natural tendency to focus more on the negative than the positive. Defining the best case scenario shifts the game from defence to offence. Define what you’re going after, and ask yourself - can you truly afford not to go after it? What first steps you need to put in place to move in that direction? How will you measure if your hypothesis is bearing out???

Don’t let indecision halt you in your tracks. In the face of incomplete information, you should a) Form a hypothesis; b) Put the hypothesis into action; c) Measure whether outcomes support or contradict your hypothesis; d) Adapt and iterate. Momentum is everything. As Wayne Gretzky said:

“You miss 100% of the shots you don’t take.”

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