Moldova in the risk zone on the eve of February 24?

So, Putin canceled his own decree of 2012, which dealt with "the search for ways to solve the Transnistrian problem based on respect for the sovereignty, territorial integrity and neutral status of the Republic of Moldova."

It cannot be said that this decree had any significant significance, influenced the resolution of the long-term conflict, and, in general, was a defining document. No, it's just a piece of paper, about nothing, and in general, like many Russian documents, not implemented, but ...

But, the fact of the matter is that a meaningfully torn meaningless piece of paper, in the perception of its tearer, can have a wide variety of meanings, for example, comparable to a glove thrown at an opponent. Well, by the opponent, Putin means the current government in Chisinau.

And while many people ask me questions about the activation of the occupiers on February 24 in the combat zone in Ukraine, one should ask the question that the escalation can happen not only along our front line but also taking into account the prerequisites - in Moldova.

It sounds somewhat surreal, for those who are not in the know, and therefore, in order to understand this particular layer, it should be clarified whether the illegal armed formations "PMR" and the so-called peacekeepers have the potential to implement the scenario of an invasion of Moldova and the overthrow of the current government.

Taking into account the fact that I wrote repeatedly about this scenario, namely, about the presence of a shocking resource of up to 9 thousand l / s, sufficient to cut Moldova into 2 parts and reach Chisinau, I will pay attention to the timing. How soon can an attack on Moldova be organized?

In general, the Pridnestrovian group, both the Russian "OGRF" and the illegal armed formations "PMR" are constantly in a state of high combat readiness, therefore, if necessary, they can easily be brought into battle order in 3 days.

But there is a nuance...

Firstly, if we talk about the Kremlin’s plans for Moldova, then if they include only a clash with the Moldovan army and law enforcement forces, of course, they have every chance of successfully implementing this, no longer a hybrid project. But if the clashes are not limited only to the army of Moldova?

The Kremlin has serious concerns that if its hybrids start to become active in Moldova, then the Armed Forces of Ukraine???? will not stand aside, and this is up to 2-3 weeks of a complete cleansing of Transnistria, for those forces that are now concentrated in the Odesa region. And February 24 is a dangerous date not so much for Ukraine as for... Moldova.

After all, by increasing activity along the front line, Russia can divert the attention and resources of the Armed Forces of Ukraine from Moldova. Although, Pridnestrovie played a completely opposite role throughout 2022 - fettering the resource with a potential threat to the Odessa region from the "PMR".

Secondly, in Transnistria itself, the mood is not at all belligerent and it is possible to trace the lack of desire to go into a "bloody battle" against Chisinau and, moreover, understanding the risks of the participation of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on the side of Moldova and the prospects for this, without much difficulty. And therefore, motivation, well, such a ...

Of course, Putin did not just defiantly cancel his own decree. This is a signal that Russia will act in relation to Moldova. It will happen on February 24, or May 9, or June 22, it is not so important. The important thing is that with the right sequence of steps, the RM can get rid of the "MRT."

Can Russia risk its three home-grown battalions, counting only on ammunition in Kolbasnaya? Don't forget that we are now talking about the driven rat, which is naturally in a state of being driven to rush in a suicidal impulse.