Modi's Three Astras - Unconventionalism, Anti-Corruption and National Security
I have found MOTN surveys quite useful in picking up general trends about India's politics. If you look at MOTN surveys from 2011, it is very easy to pinpoint when Congress and Rahul Gandhi lost their mojo and Modi eclipsed the Gandhis and the Congress party. So as time series data, it provides rich insights on long term trends.
Modi's Popularity
Between September 2014 and January 2019, PM Modi's performance rating on the top end of the scale - Outstanding never crossed 30%
The peak was 27% in January 2017 just immediately after Demonetisation and Uri Surgical Strikes. The bottom was 21% just after the Assembly elections in MP, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh and also when the economy started to trend downwards
After Balakote, everything changed!
PM Modi is now rated as Outstanding by 30% of the voters two surveys in a row. This is post Balakote and victory in the 2019 election
See this chart (Urban India) showing BJP's share movement from Feb 2019 to March 2019 (Aeon-CrowdWisdom360 daily urban tracker)
What seems to be prompting higher ratings for the PM are three themes
- Unconventional measures- Demonetisation, Uri Surgical Strikes, Balakote Strike. In many ways, the mass scale direct to home social programs are also unconventional when one considers the scale and speed of execution
- Anti-Corruption Measures - Demonetisation, aggressive investigations against politicians last year
- National Security - Uri, Balakote etc
When we were running surveys after Balakote strikes what we noticed was that one month after Balakote while National security diminished in terms of importance, the PM's leadership attributes pushed up his perceived performance on every other metric - Incomes, Employment etc
The Economy
In fact, poor ratings on the economy are having a negligible impact on the PM's popularity probably because a PM capable of unconventional methods to reduce corruption and tackle Pakistan/ China is also more likely to be Trustworthy on the economy as well. Further, 49% think their incomes and savings have gotten better since PM Modi came to power.
Not to forget the long lasting impact of - Ujjwala, Awas Yojana, Kissan Yojana and Swacch Bharat
BJP's Political Wall
Today 2 in 3 voters consider the PM to be either Outstanding or Good. With an addressable market of 68%, BJP looks quite comfortable even for 2024. In January 2019, this was much lower at 56%. So a massive 12% expansion of the market in span of weeks (Feb to March 2019), as can be seen in our chart as well.That is how much Balakote in combination with Tax breaks, Reservations and Kissan Yojana impacted the 2019 election.
Therefore, there are three major insights for the opposition
The Opposition will have to take an equally hardline position on National security (without any corruption scandals),
The economy will become a big issue only if someone can make a case that the PM has made a serious of wrong decisions that have slowed the pace of growth.
The Opposition will have to come up with breakthrough ideas that solve current issues and appeal to atleast 70% of the voters (NYAY covered just 25% of the voters)
There is nothing in the near term that is likely to impact the PM's credibility. However, no improvement in the economy over the next 12 months could move a lot of voters to the middle and open to switching. Something that happened in Madhya Pradesh in 2018. Time will tell
With a wide experience of 40 years a consistent Performer , Visionary leader working in missionary mode confident to transform a budding organisation to its full bloom spreading operations in Rural & Urban India
4 年Sh. Narinder Modi is a proven strong Political leader having passion, strong vision and clear object & Strategies. He can motivate voters. To sum up he is intelligent, Energetic. He has given hope to the weaker section of society.