Is Modi getting a 3rd term?

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May 25th, 2024.

Is Modi getting a 3rd term? My dentist put this question to me while I was at his clinic for a dental check up. He had just finished a call with his friend while I sat in front of him and his Friend quoted a figure of 198 for NDA in this Lok sabha election.

The above seems to be in sharp contrast to the “Ab ki baar 400 par” NDA slogan.

I felt compelled to write this as I heard similar conversations in few other quarters & newspapers flashing articles to this effect (last few days) with quotes of opposition leaders.

Allow me to reproduce here the assessment I shared with him.. it's off beat but logical in my view. Happy to hear counter point/s, if any...

Let's check a figures of 2019 election -

BJP won 224 seats with a margin of 50%/plus. Now, to suck out that kind of margin is almost impossible for any opposition except, maybe, during times of extreme distress across sections of society and the anger wave it would generate. “Emergency period” comes to my mind when sentiments had moved to one extreme of the pendulum. Don’t think there is another parallel for “Emergency”. Mandal and Kamandal cannot be attributed to any mis-action by the government of that time; but the whirlwind it generated swallowed that Govt nonetheless….

So taking the Emergency cue forward…

In the election immediately After “Emergency”, the Congress lost 9-10% (43.9% in 1971 to 34.5 in 1977) vote share which it again recouped (42.69%) in the subsequent election.

While the above mentioned percentage is for all seats polled, we apply it to the seats won by BJP for simplicity's sake. Thus, BJP should more or less retain most of the seats where they had a victory margin of more than 10% (10% is the worst case swing, this number would be far lesser) in 2019. Give or take a few seats as averaging distorts a few numbers/seat win-ability dynamic around the threshold. Further, local issues - like party split (Shiv Sena & NCP) and subsequent seat adjustment in Maharashtra etc.. - may swing a few seats one way or another.

Decoding the figures of two elections after Emergency (was imposed), my limited intelligence/understanding tells me that the core voter (more or less) did not desert the Congress even during those dark days. Now, with Ram Mandir, Article 370 abrogation & a deft foreign policy manoeuvre in the last few years, I don’t see even a minuscule percent of BJP’s core voters leaving them. Further, without a strong leadership alternative and no/little distress (seen in small scattered pockets), don’t see why the fringe voter would/should leave them - Over all, people seem to be amenable to Modi’s leadership, especially, with a rudderless opposition.

BJP would thus retain most of the 303 seats it won in 2019. I also read that it is breaking a few barriers in southern states where it is predominantly weak. This should help them better their tally. I have no means to qualify the 370/400 seats figure, but 300 plus is happening and Modi is coming back to power. This could be corroborated with opposition leader Sharad Pawar’s statement to the press a few days ago – He said “here-on small parties would have to merge with the congress”. He senses defeat for self and I.N…..

SB

View is personal.