Mobility predictions [#1]

Editor's note

Changes and innovation deserve?frameworks?and a view focusing on future?developments.

The whole world of mobility is changing. And that is why we feel the need to complement Sustainable Bus media offer, already made of?social media platforms, a weekly newsletter focusing on news, magazine?and events, with a new proposal that aims to look?beyond the borders?of the bus segment. This is the raison d'être of NEXT STOP, a?new weekly newsletter,?which as of today constitutes a further piece of our editorial production.

Every week,?we'll try to help giving?a better perspective?on what is going on in the mobility world. Trying to anticipate which will be the?NEXT STOP?

We'll do this by mixing things we wrote, valuable things we read, contents?that we feel willing to share (you can sign up HERE). Wishing you may enjoy it!!

Feedbacks, ideas and suggestions?are welcome at: [email protected]

Get to the point ????

End and beginning of a year are quite good timing for recaps and forecasts. Here we go with a batch of predictions. BloombergNEF ‘Electric Vehicles Outlook 2022’,?out late last year, highlighted that?transport is the only other sector on track to reduce emissions by 2050. Uptake of electric vehicles in the road segment will lead to a “22% reduction in overall transport emissions by 2050, or 13% after accounting for emissions from power generation".

What is interesting, still according to BNEF EVO, is that “Taken together, electric passenger vehicles, commercial vehicles, buses, trucks and two- and three-wheelers create an additional 5,640 terawatt-hours of power demand by 2050 (about 14% of global electricity consumption), but their efficiency advantage against internal combustion engines means that final?energy consumption in all of transport is down 21% by 2050, despite rising demand for all modes of transport”.?

麦肯锡 ?has been surveying the robo-taxi segment, that has been under the lens at CES in Las Vegas with unveiling of some new prototypes (among those:?ZF?and?Benteler Holon). The focus of the?consulting’s report?is on economics, as McKinsey estimates that “the cost per mile of a robo-taxi trip could be just 20 percent higher than that of a private nonautonomous car in certain contexts”.

Consequences for public transport operators will depend on the?strategies?put in place by municipalities and transit agencies, that “can influence pricing via subsidies or license costs to steer their mobility mix. Such moves might involve trying to build?integrated transit systems?that combine different mobility modes or taking steps to make robo-shuttles more attractive than private cars but less attractive than urban transit”.

This recalls the policy objectives that should always underpin Mobility as a Service schemes, as mentioned by? UITP ?Senior Director, Strategy Sylvain Haon in?an interview with Sustainable Bus: “Whatever the MaaS model is, it has to put public transport at its heart. Whatever steer the traveller away from the private car is good: walking, cycling, car sharing, bike sharing, those are all good for public transport”.

?? Time for a quote

?12,000. That’s how many bus and coach driver jobs were vacant in 2021 in four major European countries. Since January of 2022, we also observed a?43% increase in demand for bus and coach drivers. Based on current trends, the shortage of bus and coach drivers in these countries could reach 100,000 by 2026?

Marie-Anne Cervoni ,?IRU Strategic Marketing Intelligence Senior Manager

?? Things we enjoyed reading

• Five transit topics to watch in 2023 - The public transit industry begins the new year with a mix of challenges and opportunities. Since experiencing a transformation brought on by the pandemic in 2020... Keep reading on Mass Transit [ Mass Transit magazine ]
• US Inflation Reduction Act and sourcing lithium-ion batteries - Among key clauses in the legislation are those relating to electric vehicles in the clean energy sector, which include provision for eligible new clean energy vehicles to be given tax relief of up to US $7,500 per vehicle. Keep reading on Interact Analysis' website [ Interact Analysis ]

?? What about a map?