Mobility, pandemics and network effect. Part 1
Over the last two years, I'm discovering the impact of pandemics on how we think about cities and do our work. Some thoughts framed the vision for the SpatialChat, and others just kept engaging my curiosity.
While on one of the lockdowns, I came up with great reading,?"Viruses, Plagues, and History: Past, Present, and Future" by Michael B. A. Oldstone, M.D, published in 2009.?The book did an excellent job documenting in detail many of the killer viruses that have affected the world and how politics and religion impeded the success of diagnosing and treating the patients who suffered. Though it might be too technical for many, it outlines the deadly diseases like Smallpox, Plague, Ebola, SARS, Lassa & Hanta viruses & influenza types like H1N1.
It's hard to draw the baseline right now and say with 100% if we're living in the post-Covid era, but we can learn a lot from the history of disease and its impact on society. Human mobility, the volume of trade, and tourism have always been in hand with the spread of infectious diseases. The plague outrage in 1347 was driven by the increasing trade volumes between the Middle East and Europe. The decrease went on the ships to Venice and Mareislles and later to England, Scotland and Scandinavia.
At that time, the plague pushed up the whole structure of wages and set the stage for the shift to the Industrial Revolution. In the North, where feudal institutions were weaker, the ability to check wage increases was less. Feudal laws tried to pass the law to keep the peasants in line, but in the face of the new economic reality, that was hard to maintain. On the contrary, In the South, where feudal institutions were stronger, land-owners responded to the increase in wages caused by the decline in population by renegotiating share-cropping contracts, restraining the movement of labor, and doing everything they could to reduce wages through extra-market mechanisms. (Modern England and the Netherlands are the “North”; France, Italy, and Spain are the “South”)
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It may sound bizarre to compare the 13th and 21st, but the same pattern is spotted with the Great Influenza that killed about 2% of the world population. Historical data helps to model the turbulence of the post-pandemic world. The recent outbreaks highlight the impact on human mobility and the impact of the physical location, networks, and access to resources.
A notable shift is happening regarding how we think about the cities and the relationship between the workplace and where people live. Cities have historically been the drivers of commerce and innovation. When people and firms gathered near one another, they quickly met each other’s needs while sharing ideas. As a result, cities became the notable crossroads for the human network topology. With the rise of the “work-from-home” environment, people are free to choose where they want to live, and the interconnection between social and spatial changed a lot. I believe over the next few decades, we will see how the landscape of the cities changes due to the shift to remote-first policies.