Mixed messages on the Melbourne market
Have you been following all the usual data sources in recent weeks, trying to gain a better understanding on what is happening in the Melbourne property market?
Whether you’ve been trying to make informed decisions about your own plans before the end of the year, or you are simply trying to stay informed as part of a longer term strategy, the chances are you may be more than a little confused at the moment.
At the risk of trotting out that famous old saying about “lies, damn lies and statistics”, some of the recent analysis has provided some good reasons to be scratching your head.
On one hand, Corelogic’s latest Home Value Index report for October reported that whilst the national property market had recorded its 21st month of growth in a row, the Melbourne market had continued to underperform slightly, dropping marginally again (by 0.2 per cent) in the past month.
However, if you were reading the latest data from PropTrack for the same period, their numbers suggested that whilst the national market had grown by a similar margin that Corelogic did, (0.3 per cent), the Melbourne market had increased by 0.5 per cent over the month! Yes, you reads that correctly.
Statistically inclined readers will no doubt be aware that these well-known market analysts use slightly different data sources, so there are always going to be some variations…but that’s quite a difference, isn’t it!
So what’s really going on? Regular readers of my articles will know that I tend to caution people about reading too much into market statistics, especially when they are done on a monthly basis. You also need to keep in mind that these numbers are indicative of general trends in a broad market, (like an entire state let alone the whole nation).
With those points in mind, I would strongly urge anyone who is weighing up their options; (particularly if you are wondering whether to make your move before the end of the year as opposed to early in 2025); to get more specific figures that relate to your local market and to properties just like yours.
That way, you can make your plans with a much higher degree of certainty.
Of course, if you need some objective advice or assistance, you can always give me or one of my team at Brand C a call on 9807 6686.
Brandon Chuah
Director
Brand C